《国际政治经济学》文献资料（Institutions and International Political Economy）Contingent Credibility The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment

410 International Organization 3000- 30 Total number of BITs Annual ICSID cases 2000- 20 aqwnu [eoL al 1000- 0- 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year FIGURE 1.The growth of BITs and ICSID cases equitable treatment,expropriation,repatriation of profits,and performance require- ments.34 Across all of these issues,ICSID awards provide valuable,unique infor- mation that evaluates the degree to which specific government actions comply with these obligations.ICSID arbitration is particularly relevant given the shift away from obvious acts of expropriation toward more nebulous actions that con- stitute "creeping expropriation,"or policy changes that have the effect of"tak- ings."35 Indeed,a recent UNCTAD report concludes that arbitration outcomes of BIT-related disputes are difficult to predict,which highlights the unique value of ICSID tribunals as an ex post information source-a public good for all investors.36 Evidence suggests that investors are keenly aware of happenings at ICSID and view the events at ICSID as a valuable source of information about the behavior 34.See UNCTAD 2005,31-47,for a detailed discussion of ICSID awards that have addressed these issues. 35.Dolzer and Schreuer 2008,92-118.Cases before ICSID have involved measures such as wind- fall taxes,environmental regulations,outright contract repudiation,and changing valuation of utility tariffs. 36.UNCTAD2005.3

equitable treatment, expropriation, repatriation of profits, and performance require￾ments+ 34 Across all of these issues, ICSID awards provide valuable, unique infor￾mation that evaluates the degree to which specific government actions comply with these obligations+ ICSID arbitration is particularly relevant given the shift away from obvious acts of expropriation toward more nebulous actions that con￾stitute “creeping expropriation,” or policy changes that have the effect of “tak￾ings+”35 Indeed, a recent UNCTAD report concludes that arbitration outcomes of BIT-related disputes are difficult to predict, which highlights the unique value of ICSID tribunals as an ex post information source—a public good for all investors+ 36 Evidence suggests that investors are keenly aware of happenings at ICSID and view the events at ICSID as a valuable source of information about the behavior 34+ See UNCTAD 2005, 31– 47, for a detailed discussion of ICSID awards that have addressed these issues+ 35+ Dolzer and Schreuer 2008, 92–118+ Cases before ICSID have involved measures such as wind￾fall taxes, environmental regulations, outright contract repudiation, and changing valuation of utility tariffs+ 36+ UNCTAD 2005, 3+ FIGURE 1. The growth of BITs and ICSID cases 410 International Organization

The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment 411 TABLE 1.ICSID respondent countries (through 2007) Albania Algeria Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chile Congo Costa Rica Czech Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Gabon Gambia Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guyana Honduras Hungary Iceland Indonesia Ivory Coast Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lebanon Liberia Lithuania Madagascar Malaysia Mali Mexico Mongolia Morocco New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Republic of Congo Romania Saudi Arabia Senegal Seychelles Slovak Republic Slovenia South Africa South Korea Spain Sri Lanka St.Kitts and Nevis Tanzania Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uzbekistan Venezuela Yemen Zimbabwe of host governments who have signed BITs.37 Firms often follow happenings at ICSID directly,and they also receive such information from secondary sources, including major financial newspapers.38 Firms with international business inter- ests also regularly subscribe to newsletters and updates from external political risk services such as Global Insight,PRS Group,and Stratfor.They also may receive industry-specific newsletters(for example,Energy Compass from the Energy Intel- ligence Group,Inc.)that may be part of membership in an industry-defined orga- nization.All of these services typically highlight investment disputes in countries of interest.Firms,then,are able to use the information from ICSID arbitration cases to help them discern a state's track record for upholding its BIT commitments. 37.Yackee(2007,22)attributes this investor awareness to the rise in investment litigation and the substantial coverage that ICSID disputes receive in the media. 38.Buthe and Milner(2009,210)note that ICSID dispute filings and outcomes are often reported in major global newspapers such as the New York Times,Wall Street Journal,Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,or Le Figaro

of host governments who have signed BITs+ 37 Firms often follow happenings at ICSID directly, and they also receive such information from secondary sources, including major financial newspapers+ 38 Firms with international business inter￾ests also regularly subscribe to newsletters and updates from external political risk services such as Global Insight, PRS Group, and Stratfor+ They also may receive industry-specific newsletters ~for example, Energy Compass from the Energy Intel￾ligence Group, Inc+! that may be part of membership in an industry-defined orga￾nization+ All of these services typically highlight investment disputes in countries of interest+ Firms, then, are able to use the information from ICSID arbitration cases to help them discern a state’s track record for upholding its BIT commitments+ 37+ Yackee ~2007, 22! attributes this investor awareness to the rise in investment litigation and the substantial coverage that ICSID disputes receive in the media+ 38+ Büthe and Milner ~2009, 210! note that ICSID dispute filings and outcomes are often reported in major global newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, or Le Figaro+ TABLE 1. ICSID respondent countries (through 2007) Albania Algeria Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chile Congo Costa Rica Czech Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Gabon Gambia Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guyana Honduras Hungary Iceland Indonesia Ivory Coast Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lebanon Liberia Lithuania Madagascar Malaysia Mali Mexico Mongolia Morocco New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Republic of Congo Romania Saudi Arabia Senegal Seychelles Slovak Republic Slovenia South Africa South Korea Spain Sri Lanka St+ Kitts and Nevis Tanzania Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uzbekistan Venezuela Yemen Zimbabwe The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment 411