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上海交通大学：《当代中国外交》课程教学资源_Lesson 3_English materials_Allen Whiting China & the Korean War

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Threats,Assurances, Thomas J. and the Last Chance Christensen for Peace The Lessons of Mao's Korean War Telegrams In Cold War history few topics have received more attention than the 1950 Sino-American crisis over Korea.1 China's massive attack on UN troops in late November 1950 led to the longest retreat in American military history,an epic confrontation between the Truman administration and General Douglas MacArthur,and a polarizing domestic political debate about policy toward China.One major point of controversy was the question of how Mao might have been dis- suaded from escalating China's involvement in Korea.MacArthur supporters argued that Mao attacked out of adventurism because he was certain the Thomas I.Christensen is an Olin Fellow in National Security Studies at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA)and a Ph.D.Candidate in Political Science at Columbia University.In July 1993 he will join the faculty of the Department of Government at Cornell University.This article was originally written in September 1991 under the auspices of Harvard's CFIA,and was first presented there in November 1991. For extensive critiques of earlier drafts I am indebted to Robert Jervis,Jonathan Mercer,Lucian Pye,and Stephen Van Evera.For helpful comments I also thank Thomas Bernstein,Hu Weixing, Michael Hunt,Samuel Huntington,Yuen Foong Khong,Timothy Naftali,Andrew Nathan,Ren Yue,Stephen P.Rosen,Robert Ross,David Rowe,Randall Schweller,Jack Snyder,Fareed Zakaria,and the members of the Olin National Security Group at Harvard's CFIA.For editing my translations,I am grateful to Ms.Irene Liu of Columbia University.I also thank the Olin Foundation and Harvard's Center for International Affairs for financial and institutional support. 1.For classic treatments of American policy during the crisis,see David Rees,Korea:The Limited War (London:Macmillan,1964),Parts I and II;John W.Spanier,The Truman-MacArthur Contro versy (Cambridge,Mass.:Belknap/Harvard University Press,1959);Robert Endicott Osgood, Limited War:The Challenge to American Strategy(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1957),ch. 8;Bernard Brodie,War and Politics (New York:Macmillan:1973),ch.3;Alexander L.George and Richard Smoke,Deterrence in American Foreign Policy:Theory and Practice (New York:Columbia University Press,1974),ch.7;Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power:The Politics of Leadership from FDR to Carter (New York:Wiley,1980),ch.6.For a comprehensive military account of the first months of the war,see Roy Edgar Appleman,U.S.Army in the Korean War:Vol.1,South to the Naktong and North to the Yalu (Washington:Department of the Army,1961),chs.29-39.For the pioneering works on Chinese policy in the crisis,see Allen S.Whiting,China Crosses the Yalu:The Decision to Enter the Korean War(Stanford,Calif.:Stanford University Press,1960);Tang Tsou,America's Failure in China:1941-50(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1963),ch.13; and Jan Kalicki,The Pattern of Sino-American Crises (London:Cambridge University Press,1975), ch.3. International Security,Summer 1992 (Vol.17,No.1) 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 122 sta02323201Pw

Threats, Assurances, Thomas J. and the Last Chance Christensen for Peace The Lessons of Mao's Korean War Telegrams In Cold War history few topics have received more attention than the 1950 Sino-American crisis over Korea.' China's massive attack on UN troops in late November 1950 led to the longest retreat in American military history, an epic confrontation between the Truman administration and General Douglas MacArthur, and a polarizing domestic political debate about policy toward China. One major point of controversy was the question of how Mao might have been dissuaded from escalating China's involvement in Korea. MacArthur supporters argued that Mao attacked out of adventurism because he was certain the Thomas J. Christensen is an Olin Fellow in National Security Studies at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA) and a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at Columbia University. In July 1993 he will join the faculty of the Department ofGovernment at Cornell University. This article was originally written in September 1991 under the auspices of Harvard's CFIA, and was first presented there in November 1991. For extensive critiques of earlier drafts I am indebted to Robert Jervis, Jonathan Mercer, Lucian Pye, and Stephen Van Evera. For helpful comments I also thank Thomas Bernstein, Hu Weixing, Michael Hunt, Samuel Huntington, Yuen Foong Khong, Timothy Naftali, Andrew Nathan, Ren Yue, Stephen P. Rosen, Robert Ross, David Rowe, Randall Schweller, Jack Snyder, Fareed Zakaria, and the members of the Olin National Security Group at Harvard's CFIA. For editing my translations, I am grateful to Ms. Irene Liu of Columbia University. I also thank the Olin Foundation and Harvard's Center for International Affairs for financial and institutional support. 1. For classic treatments of American policy during the crisis, see David Rees, Korea: The Limited War (London: Macmillan, 1964), Parts I and II; John W. Spanier, The Truman-MacArthur Controversy (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap/Harvard University Press, 1959); Robert Endicott Osgood, Limited War: The Challenge to American Strategy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957), ch. 8; Bemard Brodie, War and Politics (New York: Macmillan: 1973), ch. 3; Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), ch. 7; Richard E. Neustadt, Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership from FDR to Carter (New York: Wiley, 1980), ch. 6. For a comprehensive military account of the first months of the war, see Roy Edgar Appleman, U.S. Army in the Korean War: Vol. 1, South to the Naktong and North to the Yalu (Washington: Department of the Army, 1961), chs. 29-39. For the pioneering works on Chinese policy in the crisis, see Allen S. Whiting, China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1960); Tang Tsou, America's Failure in China: 1941-50 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), ch. 13; and Jan Kalicki, The Pattern of Sino-American Crises (London: Cambridge University Press, 1975), ch. 3. International Security, Summer 1992 (Vol. 17, No. 1) C 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 122 This content downloaded on Sun, 27 Jan 2013 21:05:01 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

Threats,Assurances,and the Last Chance for Peace 123 United States would not respond with attacks on the mainland.The general accused the Truman administration of appeasement for not threatening China with retaliatory air strikes if Chinese troops attacked in force.2 De- fenders of the Truman administration charged that MacArthur's massive drive north in late November provoked China,by threatening the security of the Yalu River Valley and Manchuria.3 In hindsight,civilian and military officials in Washington suggested that the United States should have left a military buffer zone somewhere between the bulk of U.S.forces near Pyong- yang and Wonsan (the neck of Korea)and the Chinese border.4(See map, p.124) Both sides based their arguments on assumptions about Mao's risk analysis and strategy in Korea.But until now we have had little solid evidence of Mao's intentions and fears in entering the Korean War.This article presents 2.MacArthur wrote of the failure of American deterrence:"I will always believe that if the United States had issued a warning to the effect that any entry of the Chinese Communists in force into Korea would be considered an act of international war against the United States,then the Korean war would have terminated with our advance north.I feel that the reds would have stayed on their side of the Yalu....They knew they could swarm down across the Yalu River without having to worry about bombers hitting their Manchurian supply lines."Douglas MacArthur,Reminiscences (New York:McGraw-Hill,1964),pp.374-375.Also see Spanier,Tru- man-MacArthur Controversy,p.130. 3.For this accusation and MacArthur's response to it,see Spanier,The Truman-MacArthur Controversy,p.149 4.Buffer zones of varying widths were discussed during the early months of the Korean War. The buffers were designed to keep non-Korean troops away from the border areas so as not to provoke China.The largest proposed buffer would have run from the Yalu border to the Pyongyang-Wonsan line;the smallest would have straddled the Yalu with a ten-mile de-mili- tarized zone on both sides.(See map.)For Truman's recollections,see Peter N.Farrar,"A Pause for Negotiations:The British Buffer Plan of November,1950,"in James Cotton and Ian Neary, The Korean War in History (Atlantic Highlands,N.I.:Humanities Press International,1989),p.66. For criticisms of MacArthur's strategy,see Dean Acheson,Present at the Creation (New York: Norton,1969),pp.466-468.Acheson claims that the government's failure to prevent MacArthur from sending American forces toward the Chinese border squandered "the last chance to halt the march to disaster."Despite the reference to Washington's inaction,Acheson ultimately blamed the general for initiating the decision to drive north with American troops.He also claims that a British buffer plan was not attempted because he was sure that MacArthur "would frustrate any such efforts."The Joint Chiefs of Staff argued that MacArthur could at least have halted on the high ground above the Yalu River Valley,where he could repel any Chinese offensive in the valley with artillery fire without threatening the Chinese border.See Spanier, The Truman-MacArthur Controversy,p.129;and Osgood,Limited War,p.172.It is important to note that while MacArthur may have disobeyed the "spirit"of his orders,neither military nor civilian leaders in Washington had placed clear restraints on the General's activities.Richard Ned Lebow challenges Acheson's claim that he had wanted to stop MacArthur,citing declassified State Department records showing that Acheson voiced no opposition to MacArthur's drive north.See Lebow,Between Peace and War:The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1981),p.183. This content downloaded on Sun,27 Jan 2013 21:05:01 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace | 123 United States would not respond with attacks on the mainland. The general accused the Truman administration of appeasement for not threatening China with retaliatory air strikes if Chinese troops attacked in force.2 Defenders of the Truman administration charged that MacArthur's massive drive north in late November provoked China, by threatening the security of the Yalu River Valley and Manchuria.3 In hindsight, civilian and military officials in Washington suggested that the United States should have left a military buffer zone somewhere between the bulk of U.S. forces near Pyongyang and Wonsan (the neck of Korea) and the Chinese border.4 (See map, p. 124.) Both sides based their arguments on assumptions about Mao's risk analysis and strategy in Korea. But until now we have had little solid evidence of Mao's intentions and fears in entering the Korean War. This article presents 2. MacArthur wrote of the failure of American deterrence: "I will always believe that if the United States had issued a warning to the effect that any entry of the Chinese Communists in force into Korea would be considered an act of international war against the United States, then the Korean war would have terminated with our advance north. Ifeel that the reds would have stayed on their side of the Yalu.... They knew they could swarm down across the Yalu River without having to worry about bombers hitting their Manchurian supply lines." Douglas MacArthur, Reminiscences (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964), pp. 374-375. Also see Spanier, Truman-MacArthur Controversy, p.130. 3. For this accusation and MacArthur's response to it, see Spanier, The Truman-MacArthur Controversy, p.149. 4. Buffer zones of varying widths were discussed during the early months of the Korean War. The buffers were designed to keep non-Korean troops away from the border areas so as not to provoke China. The largest proposed buffer would have run from the Yalu border to the Pyongyang-Wonsan line; the smallest would have straddled the Yalu with a ten-mile de-militarized zone on both sides. (See map.) For Truman's recollections, see Peter N. Farrar, "A Pause for Negotiations: The British Buffer Plan of November, 1950," in James Cotton and Ian Neary, The Korean War in History (Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Humanities Press International, 1989), p. 66. For criticisms of MacArthur's strategy, see Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation (New York: Norton, 1969), pp. 466-468. Acheson claims that the government's failure to prevent MacArthur from sending American forces toward the Chinese border squandered "the last chance to halt the march to disaster." Despite the reference to Washington's inaction, Acheson ultimately blamed the general for initiating the decision to drive north with American troops. He also claims that a British buffer plan was not attempted because he was sure that MacArthur "would frustrate any such efforts." The Joint Chiefs of Staff argued that MacArthur could at least have halted on the high ground above the Yalu River Valley, where he could repel any Chinese offensive in the valley with artillery fire without threatening the Chinese border. See Spanier, The Truman-MacArthur Controversy, p. 129; and Osgood, Limited War, p. 172. It is important to note that while MacArthur may have disobeyed the "spirit" of his orders, neither military nor civilian leaders in Washington had placed clear restraints on the General's activities. Richard Ned Lebow challenges Acheson's claim that he had wanted to stop MacArthur, citing declassified State Department records showing that Acheson voiced no opposition to MacArthur's drive north. See Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), p. 183. This content downloaded on Sun, 27 Jan 2013 21:05:01 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

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Threats,Assurances,and the Last Chance for Peace 125 new documents from China-Mao's Korean War telegrams to Stalin,Zhou Enlai,and Chinese military commanders in the field-that force a reassess- ment of both positions in the Truman-MacArthur debate.5 A reconsideration of Mao's Korean War strategy in light of these documents and recent work by Chinese scholars reveals new lessons about American coercive diplomacy in Korea.6 The controversy over the "lessons of Korea"has affected American civil- military relations throughout the postwar era.For example,in Vietnam the military evoked MacArthur's lessons about Korea,arguing against civilian interference in bombing operations,while the Johnson administration drew Truman's lessons,strictly controlling American bombing in the North so as not to threaten the Chinese border.The Korean War case has also given rise to a rich literature on deterrence and limited war.Scholars clarify the Truman- MacArthur debate by restating it in terms of the two central concepts of deterrence theory:reassurance,and credibility of threat.Viewing the Novem- ber disaster as a failure of deterrence,these scholars point to a deficiency of one or both elements in American coercive diplomacy.8 5.The documents are bound in a collection of Mao's manuscripts entitled Jianguo Yilai Mao Zedong Wengao (The Manuscripts of Mao Zedong Since The Founding of the Nation),Vols.I-III, September 1949-December 1952(Beijing:Central Documents Publishing House,1987 and 1990). The collection,containing classified documents,is highly restricted in the PRC.Copies are currently available in the West at Harvard University's Yenching Library,among other locations. Three of the documents are translated in their entirety in the appendix(pp.151-154). 6.See Hao Yufan and Zhai Zhihai,"China's Decision to Enter the Korean War:History Revis- ited,China Ouarterly,No.121 (March 1990),pp.94-115;and Chen Jian,"The Sino-Soviet Alliance and China's Entry into the Korean War,"Working Paper of the Cold War History Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.Hao and Zhai rely heavily on leaders memoirs,open Chinese sources,and not-for-attribution interviews to piece together their his- tory.In this article,I supply supporting documentary evidence for their account,and offer a fuller analysis of Mao's grand strategy after initial entry into Korea and its implications for bilateral coercive diplomacy,which were not major focuses of their study.Chen Jian analyzes primary and secondary sources to explain Sino-Soviet relations during the crisis. 7.For an excellent discussion of the impact of the lessons of Korea on decision-making in the Vietnam War,see Yuen Foong Khong,Analogies At War:Korea,Munich,Dien Bien Phu,and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965(Princeton,N.J.:Princeton University Press,1992),ch.5,esp.pp.141- 145.Khong cites William Bundy,assistant secretary of state for Far-Eastern affairs under Presi- dent Johnson,who argued that,in 1964-1965,airfields in northernmost Vietnam were not attacked because of the lessons of November 1950.Bundy wrote:"If the Chinese came to think the United States was out to destroy North Vietnam,would not the situation be essentially similar to MacArthur's advance to the top of North Korea fourteen years before?"Also see Mark Clodfelter,The Limits of Air Power:The American Bombing of North Vietnam (New York:Free Press, 1989),chap.3. 8.For political science and deterrence theory works that treat the Korean crisis,see George and This content downloaded on Sun,27 Jan 2013 21:05:01 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace | 125 new documents from China-Mao's Korean War telegrams to Stalin, Zhou Enlai, and Chinese military commanders in the field-that force a reassessment of both positions in the Truman-MacArthur debate.5 A reconsideration of Mao's Korean War strategy in light of these documents and recent work by Chinese scholars reveals new lessons about American coercive diplomacy in Korea.6 The controversy over the "lessons of Korea" has affected American civilmilitary relations throughout the postwar era. For example, in Vietnam the military evoked MacArthur's lessons about Korea, arguing against civilian interference in bombing operations, while the Johnson administration drew Truman's lessons, strictly controlling American bombing in the North so as not to threaten the Chinese border.7 The Korean War case has also given rise to a rich literature on deterrence and limited war. Scholars clarify the TrumanMacArthur debate by restating it in terms of the two central concepts of deterrence theory: reassurance, and credibility of threat. Viewing the November disaster as a failure of deterrence, these scholars point to a deficiency of one or both elements in American coercive diplomacy.8 5. The documents are bound in a collection of Mao's manuscripts entitled Jianguo Yilai Mao Zedong Wengao (The Manuscripts of Mao Zedong Since The Founding of the Nation), Vols. I-Ill, September 1949-December 1952 (Beijing: Central Documents Publishing House, 1987 and 1990). The collection, containing classified documents, is highly restricted in the PRC. Copies are currently available in the West at Harvard University's Yenching Library, among other locations. Three of the documents are translated in their entirety in the appendix (pp. 151-154). 6. See Hao Yufan and Zhai Zhihai, "China's Decision to Enter the Korean War: History Revisited," China Quarterly, No. 121 (March 1990), pp. 94-115; and Chen Jian, "The Sino-Soviet Alliance and China's Entry into the Korean War," Working Paper of the Cold War History Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Hao and Zhai rely heavily on leaders' memoirs, open Chinese sources, and not-for-attribution interviews to piece together their history. In this article, I supply supporting documentary evidence for their account, and offer a fuller analysis of Mao's grand strategy after initial entry into Korea and its implications for bilateral coercive diplomacy, which were not major focuses of their study. Chen Jian analyzes primary and secondary sources to explain Sino-Soviet relations during the crisis. 7. For an excellent discussion of the impact of the lessons of Korea on decision-making in the Vietnam War, see Yuen Foong Khong, Analogies At War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1992), ch. 5, esp. pp. 141- 145. Khong cites William Bundy, assistant secretary of state for Far-Eastern affairs under President Johnson, who argued that, in 1964-1965, airfields in northernmost Vietnam were not attacked because of the lessons of November 1950. Bundy wrote: "If the Chinese came to think the United States was out to destroy North Vietnam, would not the situation be essentially similar to MacArthur's advance to the top of North Korea fourteen years before?" Also see Mark Clodfelter, The Limits of Air Power: The American Bombing of North Vietnam (New York: Free Press, 1989), chap. 3. 8. For political science and deterrence theory works that treat the Korean crisis, see George and This content downloaded on Sun, 27 Jan 2013 21:05:01 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

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上海交通大学：《当代中国外交》课程教学资源_Lesson 3_English materials_Allen Whiting China & the Korean War