Gail Heriot. The Sad Irony of Affirmative Action little more so. But these are difficult majors that many students aban- don. Significantly, African-American and Hispanic students jump ship at much higher rates than whites It is not surprising that students with lower entering academic creden- tials give up on their ambitions to get degrees in science and engineering more often than students with higher academic credentials. What some do find surprising is this: Three in-depth studies have demonstrated that part of the effect is relative. An aspiring science or engineering major who attends a school where his entering academic credentials put him in the middle or the top of his class is more likely to persevere, and ultimately to succeed, than an otherwise identical student attending a more elite school where those same credentials place him nearer to the bottom of his class. Put differently, a student's chances of success in science or en gineering are increased not only if his entering credentials are high, but also if those credentials compare favorably with his classmates' The earliest of these studies-titled"The Role of Ethnicity in Choosing and Leaving Science in Highly Selective Institutions"-was published in 1996 by a team of scholars led by Dartmouth psychologist Rogers Elliott. It found that the single most important cause for minor- ity attrition from science at the selective institutions studied was the relatively low preparation of black aspirants to science in these schools. The authors were careful to use the word"relatively "It wasn, t just enter ing credentials demonstrating highly developed ability at science that mattered, but comparatively high credentials. A student who attended a school at which his math SAT score was in the top third of his class was much more likely to follow through with an ambition to earn a degree in science or engineering than was a student with the same score who at- tended a school at which that score was in the bottom third of the class The problem for minority students was that, as a result of affirmative action, being in the top third of the class was relatively rare Elliott and his co-authors cited the extraordinary record of histori- cally black colleges and universities, which graduate far more than thei share of black engineering and science majors, as further support for their findings. Unlike at other colleges and universities, credentials gaps are not an issue at the historically black institutions. As one fac Ity member at a historically black school-North Carolina Central University's Walter Pattillo, Jr -told Science magazine in 1992: " The way we see it, the majority schools are wasting large numbers of good 83
Gail Heriot · The Sad Irony of Affirmative Action 83 little more so. But these are difficult majors that many students abandon. Significantly, African-American and Hispanic students jump ship at much higher rates than whites. It is not surprising that students with lower entering academic credentials give up on their ambitions to get degrees in science and engineering more often than students with higher academic credentials. What some do find surprising is this: Three in-depth studies have demonstrated that part of the effect is relative. An aspiring science or engineering major who attends a school where his entering academic credentials put him in the middle or the top of his class is more likely to persevere, and ultimately to succeed, than an otherwise identical student attending a more elite school where those same credentials place him nearer to the bottom of his class. Put differently, a student’s chances of success in science or engineering are increased not only if his entering credentials are high, but also if those credentials compare favorably with his classmates’. The earliest of these studies—titled “The Role of Ethnicity in Choosing and Leaving Science in Highly Selective Institutions”—was published in 1996 by a team of scholars led by Dartmouth psychologist Rogers Elliott. It found that the single most important cause for minority attrition from science at the selective institutions studied was the “relatively low preparation of black aspirants to science in these schools.” The authors were careful to use the word “relatively.” It wasn’t just entering credentials demonstrating highly developed ability at science that mattered, but comparatively high credentials. A student who attended a school at which his math SAT score was in the top third of his class was much more likely to follow through with an ambition to earn a degree in science or engineering than was a student with the same score who attended a school at which that score was in the bottom third of the class. The problem for minority students was that, as a result of affirmative action, being in the top third of the class was relatively rare. Elliott and his co-authors cited the extraordinary record of historically black colleges and universities, which graduate far more than their share of black engineering and science majors, as further support for their findings. Unlike at other colleges and universities, credentials gaps are not an issue at the historically black institutions. As one faculty member at a historically black school—North Carolina Central University’s Walter Pattillo, Jr.—told Science magazine in 1992: “The way we see it, the majority schools are wasting large numbers of good
NATIONAL AFFAIRS WINTER 2013 students. They have black students with admissions statistics [that are very high, tops. But these students wind up majoring in sociology or recreation or get wiped out altogether. a more recent study by University of Virginia psychologists Frederick Smyth and John McArdle(now at the University of Southern California)confirmed Elliotts findings. And the effects were not subtle In"Ethnic and gender Differences in Science graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admissions Policy and College Choice, Smyth and McArdle found that, among a sample of under-represented minority students at 23 universities who intended to mathematics, or engineering, 45% more of the women and 35%more of the men would have succeeded in attaining their goals if they had at- tended schools where their entering credentials had been about average Another study-this one by richard Sander, co-author of Mismatch and UCLA statistician Roger Bolus-pulled data from nine University of California campuses. The authors came to a similar conclusion "Minority attrition in science is a very real problem, they wrote, "and the evidence in this paper suggests that negative mismatch' probably plays a role in it. Their multiple approaches to the data yielded con- sistent results: "[S]tudents with credentials more than one standard deviation below their science peers at college are about half as likely to end up with science bachelor degrees, compared with similar students attending schools where their credentials are much closer to, or above, he mean credentials of their peers he evidence that mismatch has hurt African-American and Hispanic tudents chances of having careers in science or engineering was high lighted in a report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 20l0. The data and methodology of the research have not been challenged. The researchers' conclusions have not been rebutted. Nevertheless. the find ings have been ignored by colleges and universities. Indeed, one of the arguments that the University of Texas makes before the Supreme Court in the Fisher case is that there are not enough minority students study- ing science and engineering to make those classrooms racially diverse As a result, it claims, greater race preferences in admissions are needed But Texas's race-preferential admissions will likely aggravate rather than alleviate this problem. The more colleges and universities engage in pref- erential treatment, the fewer the African-Americans and Hispanics who will graduate with degrees in science and engineering 84
National Affairs · Winter 2013 84 students. They have black students with admissions statistics [that are] very high, tops. But these students wind up majoring in sociology or recreation or get wiped out altogether.” A more recent study by University of Virginia psychologists Frederick Smyth and John McArdle (now at the University of Southern California) confirmed Elliott’s findings. And the effects were not subtle. In “Ethnic and Gender Differences in Science Graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admissions Policy and College Choice,” Smyth and McArdle found that, among a sample of under-represented minority students at 23 universities who intended to major in science, mathematics, or engineering, 45% more of the women and 35% more of the men would have succeeded in attaining their goals if they had attended schools where their entering credentials had been about average. Another study—this one by Richard Sander, co-author of Mismatch, and UCLA statistician Roger Bolus—pulled data from nine University of California campuses. The authors came to a similar conclusion. “Minority attrition in science is a very real problem,” they wrote, “and the evidence in this paper suggests that ‘negative mismatch’ probably plays a role in it.” Their multiple approaches to the data yielded consistent results: “[S]tudents with credentials more than one standard deviation below their science peers at college are about half as likely to end up with science bachelor degrees, compared with similar students attending schools where their credentials are much closer to, or above, the mean credentials of their peers.” The evidence that mismatch has hurt African-American and Hispanic students’ chances of having careers in science or engineering was highlighted in a report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 2010. The data and methodology of the research have not been challenged. The researchers’ conclusions have not been rebutted. Nevertheless, the findings have been ignored by colleges and universities. Indeed, one of the arguments that the University of Texas makes before the Supreme Court in the Fisher case is that there are not enough minority students studying science and engineering to make those classrooms racially diverse. As a result, it claims, greater race preferences in admissions are needed. But Texas’s race-preferential admissions will likely aggravate rather than alleviate this problem. The more colleges and universities engage in preferential treatment, the fewer the African-Americans and Hispanics who will graduate with degrees in science and engineering