IT'sTechnologicalDynamismGraph 1.R&D and innovationin companies withinthe IcT sector and in all sectorsfor2009.(%)1816,81614,61412108,594,32,31,80,90,8Intenal R&DPerfoemingR&DR&DintensitynnovatorsTotal SectorsICTsectorItrria:EustatInfomazioarenetakomunikazioarenteknologien(IKT)industiaTechnischeUniversiteitTUEindhovenUniversityofTechnology30-9-2013PAGE10
IT’s Technological Dynamism 30-9-2013 PAGE 10
MeasurementofcontributionofGPTinEconomicGrowth· Growth accounting is often used to measure thecontribution of different factors to economic growth andto compute the rate of technological progress,measuredas a residual, in an economy.IntroducedbyRobertSolowin1957Decompose total output into Capital,Labor and“Catchall" factor for technology, so aggregate productionfunction is:。Y=F(A, K, L)·ExampleSeemsthatgrowthaccountingignoresintangibleaspectsenabled by ITTechnische UniversiteitTUEindhovenUniversityofTechnology30-9-2013PAGE11
Measurement of contribution of GPT in Economic Growth • Growth accounting is often used to measure the contribution of different factors to economic growth and to compute the rate of technological progress, measured as a residual, in an economy. • Introduced by Robert Solow in 1957 • Decompose total output into Capital, Labor and “Catch all” factor for technology, so aggregate production function is: • Y=F(A, K, L) • Example • Seems that growth accounting ignores intangible aspects enabled by IT 30-9-2013 PAGE 11
GPT's driving the V Kondratieff wave!45-60yearsKondratieffWave:PhaseA(Expansion/Collapse):Emergenceofnewradicalbasicinnovation(disruption)PhaseB(Stagnation/Decline):Limitsofexistingpotential of innovations reachedKeyfactorofeconomyisgettingexhaustedIII. Steel, Electrical and HeavyIV.Oil, theAutomobileand MassV.Informationand CommunicationEngineering KondratieffrProduction KondratieffKondratieffIndustrialoutputmeasureCollapseStagnationFinancialCrisisFirst Worl&War/GreatDepressionEconomic Recession/OilCrisis(1914/1918)(1967/73）2008-?cMiracle""Golden Abe'"EconomicICTRevolutionExpansignR&dical Ipisruption(FofdistmassRadical Disruption (ElectricalRadical DisruptionICproductidn)HeaxEngineeripg)Decline, etdKey factor (Energy)Innovations (Micro-Chips)Key factor (Steel)202019501990198019301880Technische UniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversity of Technology9/30/2013
9/30/2013 12 GPT’s driving the V Kondratieff wave! 1880 1930 1990 III. Steel, Electrical and Heavy Engineering Kondratieff IV. Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production Kondratieff V. Information and Communication Kondratieff Radical Disruption (Electrical Heavy Engineering) Radical Disruption (Fordist mass production) Radical Disruption ICT Key factor (Steel) Key factor (Energy) Innovations (Micro-Chips) 1950 1980 "Golden Age" "Economic Miracle" ICT Revolution Economic Recession /Oil Crisis (1967/73) First World War /Great Depression (1914/1918) Industrial output measure Expansion Collapse Stagnation Decline, etc. Financial Crisis 2008-? Kondratieff Wave: 45-60 years Phase A (Expansion/Collapse): Emergence of new radical basic innovation (disruption) Phase B (Stagnation/Decline): Limits of existing potential of innovations reached Key factor of economy is getting exhausted 2020