Services trade and globa Value chains Aaditya Mattoo August 2018 Global Value Chain Training and Research Workshop UIBE, Beijing
Services Trade and Global Value Chains Aaditya Mattoo August 2018 Global Value Chain Training and Research Workshop UIBE, Beijing
Structure of the presentation Broad trends in services trade 1. The pattern of services in GVcs Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. the implications of services in GVCs For productivity For comparative advantage V. National policy VI. International cooperation
Structure of the presentation I. Broad trends in services trade II. The pattern of services in GVCs III. Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. The implications of services in GVCs • For productivity • For comparative advantage V. National policy VI. International cooperation
Goods trade stumbles, but services trade does not fall World Import Volumes of Goods and Services Goods growth rates Services: Growth rates 6ods(1993=100RHS -Services(1993=100, RHS) 93弹弹四弹99p9p四ppp的ppp2p9p3p2p3p3 Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta(2016), work in progress, building on"The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158 Services trade declined less during the crisis and has grown faster after the crisis
I. Goods trade stumbles, but services trade does not fall 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 World Import Volumes of Goods and Services Goods: Growth rates Services: Growth rates Goods (1993=100, RHS) Services (1993=100, RHS) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Services trade declined less during the crisis and has grown faster after the crisis Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta (2016), work in progress, building on “The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158
Drivers of services trade 1: Demographic Change Young and old have different patterns of demand, e. g. USA Average of consumption shares by HH types (in % (UsA,2012) Broad expenditure categories Expenditure on servi ces food domestic service education housing recreation manuf goods health ervIces personal service Two Adults Two 65+ Housing includes interest on mortgage and property tax Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden
Drivers of services trade 1: Demographic Change Young and old have different patterns of demand, e.g. USA 0 10 20 30 40 50 other services manuf. goods housing food Broad expenditure categories 0 5 10 15 20 25 utility transport social security personal service hotel health finance recreation education domestic service catering Expenditure on services Housing includes interest on mortgage and property tax (USA, 2012) Average of consumption shares. by HH types (in %) Two Adults Two 65+ Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden
Young and old have different patterns of demand especially within services: India postal postal recreatIon catering person personal Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden
Young and old have different patterns of demand especially within services: India 0 10 20 30 40 other personal hotel catering education recreation postal transport health utility Urban area 0 10 20 30 40 other personal hotel catering education recreation postal transport health utility Rural area Hi, j, k denotes household of size i, with j children (i.e of age 0-17) and k elderies (i.e. 65+) (India, 2011) Average of consumption shares. by HH types (in %) H200 H202 Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden