以及进入退出因素纳入产业组织演化模型，修正了温特等人2003年的产业组织 演化模型，并借助计算机模拟的方法模拟产业组织演化路径，得出产业组织演化 的一般性特征。这些构成了整篇论文的研究思路和基本内容。同时，从新的视角 提出产业组织演化问题，并在吸纳大量演化经济基础上构建产业组织演化机制的 理论框架以及对温特等人2003年研究的修正构成了论文研究的三大创新点。 首先，作为一种尝试，在分析产业组织理论研究由静态研究向动态研究变革 的趋势和特点的基础上，结合以纳尔逊和温特为代表的现代演化经济学的发展， 大胆提出产业组织演化研究课题。通过深入考察凡勃伦、熊彼特、阿尔钦、纳尔 逊和温特等的经济演化思想，寻找产业组织理论与演化经济学的结合点，找出产 业组织演化理论研究的一个研究视角，并结合当前演化经济学的前沿问题指出产 业组织演化研究的重要领域和方向。通过这些研究确立了本文研究的理论基础， 这种新的研究视角则是本文的创新点之一。 其次，在吸纳了大量演化经济思想的基础上，提出产业组织演化机制的一个 理论框架。产业组织本身是一个复杂的系统，产业组织演化离不开产业发展依存 的系统环境，产业组织之所以演化是由于企业不断适应环境做出各种调整而产生 的。尽管影响产业组织演化的要素有多种，然而其中最为重要的是制度因素和技 术进步。产业组织演化正是在制度因素和技术进步互动作用影响的复杂系统中， 企业自然选择的一种结果。在这样的环境里，产业组织演化如同达尔文主义的自 然选择一样，离不开变化、选择和复制三大机制。产业组织演化机制是研究的核 心内容，同时产业组织演化机制的提出和构建是本文的另一创新点。 最后，对温特等人2003年研究的模型作了修正，并且借用计算机对产业组 织演化过程进行模拟也是本文的核心内容和创新点。早在纳尔逊和温特1982年 的研究中就指出“演化理论关注的核心是动态过程，企业的行为方式和市场的结 果随时间的推移而一起由该过程决定”，但是限于当时计算技术，他们认为产业 组织演化是一种马尔科夫随机过程。基于这样的假定，他们无法对产业组织演化 进程中企业进入退出的问题做出分析。温特等人2003年的研究则忽略了技术模 仿和创新的问题。结合两者建立模型的特点和不足，本文对温特等人的研究模型 作了相关修正，并引入了技术模仿和创新，通过计算机模拟的方法对产业组织演
II 以及进入退出因素纳入产业组织演化模型，修正了温特等人 2003 年的产业组织 演化模型，并借助计算机模拟的方法模拟产业组织演化路径，得出产业组织演化 的一般性特征。这些构成了整篇论文的研究思路和基本内容。同时，从新的视角 提出产业组织演化问题，并在吸纳大量演化经济基础上构建产业组织演化机制的 理论框架以及对温特等人 2003 年研究的修正构成了论文研究的三大创新点。 首先，作为一种尝试，在分析产业组织理论研究由静态研究向动态研究变革 的趋势和特点的基础上，结合以纳尔逊和温特为代表的现代演化经济学的发展， 大胆提出产业组织演化研究课题。通过深入考察凡勃伦、熊彼特、阿尔钦、纳尔 逊和温特等的经济演化思想，寻找产业组织理论与演化经济学的结合点，找出产 业组织演化理论研究的一个研究视角，并结合当前演化经济学的前沿问题指出产 业组织演化研究的重要领域和方向。通过这些研究确立了本文研究的理论基础， 这种新的研究视角则是本文的创新点之一。 其次，在吸纳了大量演化经济思想的基础上，提出产业组织演化机制的一个 理论框架。产业组织本身是一个复杂的系统，产业组织演化离不开产业发展依存 的系统环境，产业组织之所以演化是由于企业不断适应环境做出各种调整而产生 的。尽管影响产业组织演化的要素有多种，然而其中最为重要的是制度因素和技 术进步。产业组织演化正是在制度因素和技术进步互动作用影响的复杂系统中， 企业自然选择的一种结果。在这样的环境里，产业组织演化如同达尔文主义的自 然选择一样，离不开变化、选择和复制三大机制。产业组织演化机制是研究的核 心内容，同时产业组织演化机制的提出和构建是本文的另一创新点。 最后，对温特等人 2003 年研究的模型作了修正，并且借用计算机对产业组 织演化过程进行模拟也是本文的核心内容和创新点。早在纳尔逊和温特 1982 年 的研究中就指出“演化理论关注的核心是动态过程，企业的行为方式和市场的结 果随时间的推移而一起由该过程决定”，但是限于当时计算技术，他们认为产业 组织演化是一种马尔科夫随机过程。基于这样的假定，他们无法对产业组织演化 进程中企业进入退出的问题做出分析。温特等人 2003 年的研究则忽略了技术模 仿和创新的问题。结合两者建立模型的特点和不足，本文对温特等人的研究模型 作了相关修正，并引入了技术模仿和创新，通过计算机模拟的方法对产业组织演
化的特点和规律做了进一步分析。 本文的主要结论有四个。一是产业组织理论与演化经济学的结合点在于五个 方面：从历史的角度考察产业组织的演化问题：借鉴生物进化论的一些思想揭示 产业组织演化特征：用动态的思想考察产业组织问题：正确分析群体与个体演化 之间的互动关系和在一个开放的系统内研究产业组织演化问题。二是产业组织演 化是一个复杂的系统，正是在包含了制度因素、技术进步、信息因素和政府作用 的环境下，产业组织各种要素的互动作用过程，其中重要的推动力就是变化机制、 选择机制和复制机制。三是进入退出和技术创新两个变化的来源是产业组织演化 的重要动力，而在进入退出和技术创新双重条件下，市场集中度先下降而后上升 这一规律在制造业内具有普遍性。四是中国彩电业在产业组织演化进程中经历了 不同阶段，各个阶段具有不同的演化特征，而在以数字技术为特征的产业融合背 景下，彩电业最终的发展很有可能被迅速崛起的计算机技术所融合，这和其他产 业组织演化的最终结局应该是不同的。 通过本文的研究可以看出，并不存在最优的产业组织，当然也就没有最优的 产业组织政策，所谓的产业组织优化问题只是相对的。因此，正确的产业组织政 策必须具有前瞻性，能够做出适应性调整来适应变化的环境。政府的精力主要应 该放在进一步完善市场经济体制、整顿和规范市场经济秩序，促进公平竞争，以 及进一步促进技术创新，努力打造技术进步的大环境两个方面。这两个方面的政 府作为事实上为产业组织优化奠定了一定的基础。 关键词：产业组织演化、自然选择、随机过程、计算机模拟
III 化的特点和规律做了进一步分析。 本文的主要结论有四个。一是产业组织理论与演化经济学的结合点在于五个 方面：从历史的角度考察产业组织的演化问题；借鉴生物进化论的一些思想揭示 产业组织演化特征；用动态的思想考察产业组织问题；正确分析群体与个体演化 之间的互动关系和在一个开放的系统内研究产业组织演化问题。二是产业组织演 化是一个复杂的系统，正是在包含了制度因素、技术进步、信息因素和政府作用 的环境下，产业组织各种要素的互动作用过程，其中重要的推动力就是变化机制、 选择机制和复制机制。三是进入退出和技术创新两个变化的来源是产业组织演化 的重要动力，而在进入退出和技术创新双重条件下，市场集中度先下降而后上升 这一规律在制造业内具有普遍性。四是中国彩电业在产业组织演化进程中经历了 不同阶段，各个阶段具有不同的演化特征，而在以数字技术为特征的产业融合背 景下，彩电业最终的发展很有可能被迅速崛起的计算机技术所融合，这和其他产 业组织演化的最终结局应该是不同的。 通过本文的研究可以看出，并不存在最优的产业组织，当然也就没有最优的 产业组织政策，所谓的产业组织优化问题只是相对的。因此，正确的产业组织政 策必须具有前瞻性，能够做出适应性调整来适应变化的环境。政府的精力主要应 该放在进一步完善市场经济体制、整顿和规范市场经济秩序，促进公平竞争，以 及进一步促进技术创新，努力打造技术进步的大环境两个方面。这两个方面的政 府作为事实上为产业组织优化奠定了一定的基础。 关键词：产业组织演化、自然选择、随机过程、计算机模拟
ABSTRACT Based on the methodology of evolutionary economics and the assumption of uncertainty and boundary rationality,this thesis tries to give an explanation of evolutions of industrial organization(EIO).At the same time,this thesis simulates the stochastic process of industrial dynamics by modifying a baseline model of industrial evolution which was given by Winter et al.in 2003.in order to deeply expound the questions of EIO. It changed a lot from static study to dynamic study of industrial organization(IO). More and more evolutionary thinking enters into IO study.Analyzing Nelson and Winter's evolutionary economics,it can be found that many theories of them relate with IO theory,such as evolution of economic structure and firms'behavior and so on. So another way to study I0 theory should be attented.In fact,some domestic economists pay more attention to the dynamic study of IO.They analyze the evolutionary process of IO in different ways and give a lot of constructive advice. However,there is not an integrated theory framework to explain the characters and laws of EIO. First of all,the research tries to combine the study of IO theory with the study of evolutionary economics through the methodology of evolutionary economics.By deeply analyzing the evolutionary thinking of Veblen,Shumpeter,Alchian,Nelson and Winter et al,this thesis finds the bonding point:(a)The idea that history matters in EIO analysis,that is the idea of path dependency,(b)A Darwinian conception of EIO,(c)Stochastic process of EIO,(d)Relations between individual (one firm)and population(many firms)in the process of EIO,and (e)Studying EIO in an opening system.These five points just give the direction and contents to study EIO.This new viewpoint establishes the theory basis of the research and also is one of the innovations of the thesis
IV ABSTRACT Based on the methodology of evolutionary economics and the assumption of uncertainty and boundary rationality, this thesis tries to give an explanation of evolutions of industrial organization (EIO). At the same time, this thesis simulates the stochastic process of industrial dynamics by modifying a baseline model of industrial evolution which was given by Winter et al. in 2003, in order to deeply expound the questions of EIO. It changed a lot from static study to dynamic study of industrial organization (IO). More and more evolutionary thinking enters into IO study. Analyzing Nelson and Winter’s evolutionary economics, it can be found that many theories of them relate with IO theory, such as evolution of economic structure and firms’ behavior and so on. So another way to study IO theory should be attented. In fact, some domestic economists pay more attention to the dynamic study of IO. They analyze the evolutionary process of IO in different ways and give a lot of constructive advice. However, there is not an integrated theory framework to explain the characters and laws of EIO. First of all, the research tries to combine the study of IO theory with the study of evolutionary economics through the methodology of evolutionary economics. By deeply analyzing the evolutionary thinking of Veblen, Shumpeter, Alchian, Nelson and Winter et al., this thesis finds the bonding point: (a) The idea that history matters in EIO analysis, that is the idea of path dependency, (b) A Darwinian conception of EIO, (c) Stochastic process of EIO, (d) Relations between individual (one firm) and population (many firms) in the process of EIO, and (e) Studying EIO in an opening system. These five points just give the direction and contents to study EIO. This new viewpoint establishes the theory basis of the research and also is one of the innovations of the thesis
Second,the research forms a theoretical framework of EIO mechanism,which is the core content and another innovation of the thesis.Industrial organization is a complicated system,which interacts with its environment.With the adaptations of the firms to the change of the environment,market structure,firms'behavior and performance have to change.so the EIO appears.In the process of EIO.there are many factors influencing the process,among which the most important are institutions and technologies.The EIO is a result of natural selection of firms in the complicated system in which institutions and technologies effect with one another.On the basis of analyzing the evolutionary environment,the research abstracts the EIO mechanism which is the core content of the thesis.The EIO mechanism is a metaphor for Darwinian's natural selection,which involves variety,selection and replication.The research gives the detailed explanation of these three mechanisms of EIO Last,modifying the baseline model of Winter et al.and simulating the stochastic process of industrial dynamics are also innovation of this thesis.On the assumption of Markov process,Nelson and Winter can not analyze the problem of entry and exit in the process of EIO in 1982,although they have give the explanation of imitation and innovation.The other way round,Winter et al.simulate the process of EIO with imitation and innovation but neglect the problem of entry and exit in 2003.So the research modifies the model of Winter et al.by adding the parameters of imitation and innovation,which revises the shortcoming of these two models.Further more, computer simulation of the new model gives some constructive results and laws of EIO. The research also gives the usage of the theory framework through the case of evolution of color TV industry.It is not the thesis's purpose and focus to give some specific industry's evolutionary process.The author's purpose is to expand the usage to the other industries through an example of using and validating the theory framework of EIC From the research,we find there is not an optimal industrial police.All the
V Second, the research forms a theoretical framework of EIO mechanism, which is the core content and another innovation of the thesis. Industrial organization is a complicated system, which interacts with its environment. With the adaptations of the firms to the change of the environment, market structure, firms’ behavior and performance have to change, so the EIO appears. In the process of EIO, there are many factors influencing the process, among which the most important are institutions and technologies. The EIO is a result of natural selection of firms in the complicated system in which institutions and technologies effect with one another. On the basis of analyzing the evolutionary environment, the research abstracts the EIO mechanism which is the core content of the thesis. The EIO mechanism is a metaphor for Darwinian’s natural selection, which involves variety, selection and replication. The research gives the detailed explanation of these three mechanisms of EIO. Last, modifying the baseline model of Winter et al. and simulating the stochastic process of industrial dynamics are also innovation of this thesis. On the assumption of Markov process, Nelson and Winter can not analyze the problem of entry and exit in the process of EIO in 1982, although they have give the explanation of imitation and innovation. The other way round, Winter et al. simulate the process of EIO with imitation and innovation but neglect the problem of entry and exit in 2003. So the research modifies the model of Winter et al. by adding the parameters of imitation and innovation, which revises the shortcoming of these two models. Further more, computer simulation of the new model gives some constructive results and laws of EIO. The research also gives the usage of the theory framework through the case of evolution of color TV industry. It is not the thesis’s purpose and focus to give some specific industry’s evolutionary process. The author’s purpose is to expand the usage to the other industries through an example of using and validating the theory framework of EIO. From the research, we find there is not an optimal industrial police. All the
industrial polices are suboptimal.Industrial polices,which can adapt to the change of environment,are good polices. Keywords:Evolution of Industrial Organization,Natural Selection,Stochastic Process,Computer Simulation
VI industrial polices are suboptimal. Industrial polices, which can adapt to the change of environment, are good polices. Keywords: Evolution of Industrial Organization, Natural Selection, Stochastic Process, Computer Simulation