Decision Tree $14,000 $12,000 Accept anessa's Offer Accept John's Offe C A Offer from Vanessa Reject Vanessa's Offer 1.600 $16800 Reject john s Offer/0.6 E 12000 0.25 B $6,000 No Offer from Vanessa 21.600 0.4 $16800 D $12,000 $6.000 0.05 Figure 1.6: The completed decision tree
Decision Tree Accept Vanessa’s Offer Reject Vanessa’s Offer $12,000 A C B D E Accept John’s Offer Reject John’s Offer Offer from Vanessa No Offer from Vanessa $16,800 $6,000 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 $21,600 $12,000 $0 0.6 0.4 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 $21,600 $12,000 $0 $6,000 $16,800 $14,000 Figure 1.6: The completed decision tree
The expected monetary value(EMv) The eMv of an uncertain event is the weighted average of all possible numerical outcomes, with the probabilities of each of the possible outcomes used as the weights EMV是所有可能结果的加权平均值,其中权 重是各个可能结果的发生概率。 EMV=0.05×$21.600+0.25×$16800 040×$12000+0.25×$6,000+005×$0 $11,580
The expected monetary value(EMV) The EMV of an uncertain event is the weighted average of all possible numerical outcomes, with the probabilities of each of the possible outcomes used as the weights. EMV是所有可能结果的加权平均值，其中权 重是各个可能结果的发生概率。 EMV=0.05×$21,600+0.25×$16,800+ 0.40×$12,000+0.25×$6,000+0.05×$0 =$11,580