The Coming Transition in Automobile Cockpits Insights from Aerospace Prof r, John Hansman Department of Aeronautics Astronautics
The Coming Transition in Automobile Cockpits - Insights from Aerospace Prof. R. John Hansman Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics
Evolution of Cockpit Displays Concorde.. EA-6B L-1011 0F-18 c50 0757/767 C-141 A310C17 C130 17 Constellation Wright Ford Tri-Motor 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000 Time
Evolution of Cockpit Displays
Software Growth in Aircraft Total Airplan Signals, Digital, B747400 Analog Words 50000 ◆ Empirical Data FBW Correction 25000 B757767-200 B420 Software size doubles every 18 months Compensating for"FBW offset reduces doubling to 33 months
Software Growth in Aircraft B757/767-200 B777-200 B747-400 B747-200 0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Total Airplane Signals, Digital, Analog Words Empirical Data Extrapolation FBW Correction • Software size doubles every 18 months • Compensating for “FBW offset” reduces doubling to 33 months
Hypothesis We are entering a period of significant change in automobile Human-Machine Interaction driven by Information Technologies Automobiles will undergo a change more substantial than the change in aircraft from steam gauge"to " glass cockpits
Hypothesis • We are entering a period of significant change in automobile Human-Machine Interaction driven by Information Technologies • Automobiles will undergo a change more substantial than the change in aircraft from “steam gauge” to “glass cockpits
Car/Aircraft Comparison Market 少 Capital investment(Ro to- Consumer product Number of vehicles(US) 300000 200,0000 Safety(US) 663 fatalities(1998 41,000 fatalities(1997) Threat response time constant y Order 5-60 sec Order 1 sec Hazard density r Low, 3-D collision(vehicle, terrain, animal), WX o-o High, 2-D collision(vehicle, object, person, animal,. System complexity High to o- Med/low
Car / Aircraft Comparison • Market Capital investment (ROI) Consumer product • Number of vehicles (US) 300,000 200,000,000 • Safety (US) 663 fatalities (1998) 41,000 fatalities (1997) • Threat response time constant Order 5-60 sec. Order 1 sec. • Hazard density Low, 3-D collision (vehicle, terrain, animal), WX High, 2-D collision (vehicle, object, person, animal, …) • System complexity High Med/low