16.422 Human Supervisory Control Naturalistic Decision Making Massachusetts Institute of Technology
16.422 Human Supervisory Control Naturalistic Decision Making
Naturalistic Decision Making 16.422 How experts make decisions in the real world Descriptive method Stress, time-pressure, dynamic conditions, ambiguous information, and ill-defined goals Heuristics may introduce bias but can be very powerful Other related research areas Behavioral decision theory Judgment decision making Organizational decision making Group of behavioral scientists who shared common theme of "the importance of (D)time pressure, (2)uncertainty, (3)ill-defined goals, (4) high personal stakes, and(5)other complexities that characterize decision making in real-world settings. nd theme was to study people with expertise during the decision making process 3rd theme was that people appeared to size up situations with more importance than they would select between courses of action
Naturalistic Decision Making 16.422 • How experts make decisions in the real world – Descriptive method – Stress, time-pressure, dynamic conditions, ambiguous information, and ill-defined goals • Heuristics may introduce bias but can be very powerful. • Other related research areas: – Behavioral decision theory – Judgment decision making – Organizational decision making Group of behavioral scientists who shared com mon theme of “the importance of (1) time pressure, (2) uncertainty, (3) ill-defined goals, (4) high personal stakes, and (5) other complexities that characterize decision making in real-world settings.” 2nd theme was to study people with expertise during the decision making process 3rd theme was that people appeared to size up situations with more importance than they would select between courses of action
NDM VS Classic Decision Theory 16.422 People are not always rational decision makers But people are proficient Situation-action matching decision rules As opposed to choosing an alternate Context-bound informal modeling as opposed to context-free formal modeling 1g Process orientation as opposed to prediction of outcomes Empirical-based prescriptions
NDM vs. Classic Decision Theory 16.422 • People are not always “rational” decision makers – But people are proficient • Situation-action matching decision rules – As opposed to choosing an alternate • Context-bound informal modeling as opposed to context-free formal modeling • Process orientation as opposed to prediction of outcomes • Empirical-based prescriptions
Forms of NdM 16.422 Recognition primed decision making Related theories/methods Critical decision method Explanation based theory Image theor
Forms of NDM 16.422 • Recognition primed decision making • Related theories/methods – Critical decision method – Explanation based theory – Image theory
Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD) 16.422 Intuitive form of diagnosis and prediction Pattern matching Multiple cues. highly correlated ey observations Requires learning and expertise Experts choose feasible course of action without analyzing all or even many options Decision making under uncertainty, time-pressure, stress Military commanders firefighters What biases might we see in RPD?
Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD) 16.422 • Intuitive form of diagnosis and prediction – Pattern matching • Multiple cues, highly correlated – Key observations • Requires learning and expertise – Experts choose feasible course of action without analyzing all or even many options • Decision making under uncertainty, time-pressure, & stress – Military commanders & firefighters • What biases might we see in RPD?