16.422 Human Supervisory Control Classical Decision Theory &e bayes'Theorem Massachusetts Institute of Technology
16.422 Human Supervisory Control Classical Decision Theory & Bayes’ Theorem
Decision Theory supervisory Control 16.422 TWo broad areas of decision theory Normative Prescriptive Descriptive Why how do we make decisions? How does technology support or detract from optimal decision making Informing Design Normative. how decisions should be made Prescriptive: How decisions can be made, given human limitations Descriptive: How decisions are made
Decision Theory & Supervisory Control • Two broad areas of decision theory – Normative • Prescriptive – Descriptive • Why & how do we make decisions? – How does technology support or detract from “optimal” decision making • Informing Design 16.422 • Normative: How decisions should be made • Prescriptive: How decisions can be made, given human limitations • Descriptive: How decisions are made
Elements of Decision Making 16.422 The rational decision making process Define the problem Information gathering Identify alternatives Eⅴ aluate alternatives Select and implement decision Why decisions often go wrong Certainty vS uncertainty Bounded rationality nonlinearity Habits heuristics Path of least resistance
Elements of Decision Making 16.422 • The rational decision making process – Define the problem – Information gathering – Identify alternatives – Evaluate alternatives – Select and implement decision • Why decisions often go wrong: – Certainty vs. uncertainty – Bounded rationality – Nonlinearity – Habits & heuristics – Path of least resistance
Classic Decision Theory 16.422 Maximizing expected value of the outcome Primary assumption of rationality Mathematical models of human decision making Following assumptions are made about how people make decisions All alternatives are considered Information acquisition is perfect Probabilities are calculated correctly · Problems: Humans are not rational decision makers No universal agreement on the worth associated with various outcomes
Classic Decision Theory • Maximizing expected value of the outcome – Primary assumption of rationality • Mathematical models of human decision making • Following assumptions are made about how people make decisions: – All alternatives are considered – Information acquisition is perfect – Probabilities are calculated correctly • Problems: – Humans are not rational decision makers – No universal agreement on the worth associated with various outcomes. 16.422
Basic Concepts in Decision Analysis 16.422 State: a description of the world Events: A set of states S,s,,,S Consequences:A set of states Acts Results from decisions Act 1(A1)C Act 2(A2) 21 22
Basic Concepts in Decision Analysis 16.422 • State: A description of the world • Events: A set of states {S 1, S 2,…, S j } • Consequences: A set of states • Acts: Results from decisions S 1 S 2 Act 1 (A 1) C11 C12 Act 2 (A 2) C21 C22