16.422 Human Supervisory Control Judgment Under Uncertainty Heuristics biases Massachusetts Institute of Technology
16.422 Human Supervisory Control Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics & Biases
The Uncertain state of the World 16.422 Probabilit Theory Objective Subjective Probability Probability SEU ·MAUT Axiomatic Statistical · Bayesian Nets Probability Probability
The Uncertain State of the World 16.422 Probability Theory Objective Probability Subjective Probability Statistical Probability Axiomatic Probability • S E U • M A U T • Bayesian Nets
Subjective Assessment 16.422 Subjective assessment of probabilities is akin to assessment of size and distance Perception versus expectation Heuristics are useful but can be misleading
Subjective Assessment 16.422 • Subjective assessment of probabilities is akin to assessment of size and distance • Perception versus expectation • Heuristics are useful but can be misleading
The ames room 16.422 (Image removed due to copyright considerations. http://psylux.psych.tu-dresden.de/il/kaw/diverses%20material/www.illusionworks.com/html/aMes_room.html
The Ames Room 16.422 http://psylux.psych.tu-dresden.de/i1/kaw/diverses%20Material/www.illusionworks.com/html/ames_room.html (Image removed due to copyright considerations.)
Expectations Can Fool You 16.422 Checker- shadow illusion The squares marked A and B are the same shade of gray Edward H. Adelson These checkershadow images may be reproduced and distributed freely. @1995, Edward H Adelson. Used with permission
Expectations Can Fool You… 16.422 These checkershadow images may be reproduced and distributed freely. ©1995, Edward H. Adelson. Used with permission