326 WORLD POLITICS McCumber Tariff Act of 1922 increased protectionism.The October Revolution removed Russia from the Western trading system. Dramatic closure in terms of tariff levels began with the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the United States in 1930.Britain raised tariffs in 193I and definitively abandoned free trade at the Ottawa Conference of 1932,which introduced extensive imperial pref- erences.Germany and Japan established trading blocs within their own spheres of influence.All other major countries followed protectionist policies.2 Significant reductions in protection began after the Second World War;the United States had foreshadowed the movement toward greater liberality with the passage of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934.Since 1945 there have been seven rounds of multilateral tariff reductions.The first,held in 1947 at Geneva,and the Kennedy Round, held during the 1g6o's,have been the most significant.They have substantially reduced the level of protection. The present situation is ambiguous.There have recently been some new trade controls.In the United States these include a voluntary im- port agreement for steel,the imposition of a Io per cent import sur- charge during four months of I971,and export controls on agricultural products in 1973 and 1974.Italy imposed a deposit requirement on im- ports during parts of 1974 and 1975.Britain and Japan have engaged in export subsidization.Non-tariff barriers have become more important. On balance,there has been movement toward greater protectionism since the end of the Kennedy Round,but it is not decisive.The out- come of the multilateral negotiations that began in 1975 remains to be seen. In sum,after 1820 there was a general trend toward lower tariffs (with the notable exception of the United States),which culminated between 1860 and 1879;higher tariffs from 1879 through the interwar years,with dramatic increases in the 1930's;and less protectionism from 1945 through the conclusion of the Kennedy Round in 1967. TRADE PROPORTIONS With the exception of one period,ratios of trade to aggregate eco- nomic activity followed the same general pattern as tariff levels.Trade proportions increased from the early part of the nineteenth century 11 Charles P.Kindelberger,The World in Depression (Berkeley:University of Cali- fornia Press 1973),I7I;Condliffe (fn.9),478-81. 12 Condliffe (fn.9),498;Robert Gilpin,"The Politics of Transnational Economic Relations,"International Organization,xxv (Summer 1971),407;Kindelberger (fn. II),I32,I71. ii John W.Evans,The Kennedy Round in American Trade Policy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press I971),10-20
326 WORLD POLITICS McCumber Tariff Act of 1922 increased protectionism. The October Revolution removed Russia from the Western trading system." Dramatic closure in terms of tariff levels began with the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the United States in 1930. Britain raised tariffs in 1931 and definitively abandoned free trade at the Ottawa Conference of 1932, which introduced extensive imperial preferences. Germany and Japan established trading blocs within their own spheres of influence. All other major countries followed protectionist policies.12 Significant reductions in protection began after the Second World War; the United States had foreshadowed the movement toward greater liberality with the passage of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934. Since 1945 there have been seven rounds of multilateral tariff reductions. The first, held in 1947 at Geneva, and the Kennedy Round, held during the 1960's~ have been the most significant. They have substantially reduced the level of protection.13 The present situation is ambiguous. There have recently been some new trade controls. In the United States these include a voluntary import agreement for steel, the imposition of a 10 per cent import surcharge during four months of 1971, and export controls on agricultural products in 1973 and 1974. Italy imposed a deposit requirement on imports during parts of 1974 and 1975. Britain and Japan have engaged in export subsidization. Non-tariff barriers have become more important. On balance, there has been movement toward greater protectionism since the end of the Kennedy Round, but it is not decisive. The outcome of the multilateral negotiations that began in 1975 remains to be seen. In sum, after 1820 there was a general trend toward lower tariffs (with the notable exception of the United States), which culminated between 1860 and 1879; higher tariffs from 1879 through the interwar years, with dramatic increases in the 1930's; and less protectionism from 1945 through the conclusion of the Kennedy Round in 1967, TRADE PROPORTIONS With the exception of one period, ratios of trade to aggregate economic activity followed the same general pattern as tariff levels. Trade proportions increased from the early part of the nineteenth century l1 Charles P. Kindelberger, The World in Depression (Berkeley: University of California Press 1973)~ 171; Condliffe (fn. g), 478-81. 12 Condliffe (fn. g), 498; Robert Gilpin, "The Politics of Transnational Economic Relations," International Organization, xxv (Summer 1971)~ 407; Kindelberger (fn. II), 132, 171. 13 John W. Evans, The Kennedy Round in American Trade Policy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press 1971), 10-20
STATE POWER AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 327 to about 1880.Between 1880 and Igoo there was a decrease,sharper if measured in current prices than constant ones,but apparent in both statistical series for most countries.Between Igoo and 1oI3-and here is the exception from the tariff pattern-there was a marked increase in the ratio of trade to aggregate economic activity.This trend brought trade proportions to levels that have generally not been re- attained.During the 1920's and 1930's the importance of trade in national economic activity declined.After the Second World War it increased. Diagram I presents these findings in greater detail.There are con- siderable differences in the movement of trade proportions among states.They hold more or less constant for the United States;Japan, Denmark,and Norway (the last not shown on the graph)are unaffect- 70 △Denmark 口France ●Germany 60 Italy A Japan O Sweden 50 ▣ O United Kingdom ◆United States 40 30 20 10 L山山山 1800 18201840 1860 1880 190019201940 1960 Source Simon Kuznets,"Aspectsf the Economic R9n9ox889C8888e88e8,/9r8 Chonge,XV (1967),Appendix I.in all cases the mid-points of Kuznets perlods were used. DIAGRAM I.RATIO OF TRADE TO AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, NINETEENTH CENTURY-1960,AT CURRENT PRICES
STATE POWER AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 327 to about 1880. Between 1880 and 1900 there was a decrease, sharper if measured in current prices than constant ones, but apparent in both statistical series for most countries. Between goo and 1913-and here is the exception from the tariff pattern-there was a marked increase in the ratio of trade to aggregate economic activity. This trend brought trade proportions to levels that have generally not been reattained. During the 1920's and 1930's the importance of trade in national economic activity declined. After the Second World War it increased. Diagram I presents these findings in greater detail. There are considerable differences in the movement of trade proportions among states. They hold more or less constant for the United States; Japan, Denmark, and Norway (the last not shown on the graph) are unaffect- 70 60 50 0 United Kingdom United States 40 ' 30 20 10 Source: S~monKuznets 'bwnt~totiveAspects of the Economlc Growthof Notions. X. ievel and Structure of Foreign Trade: Long-Term ~rends", Economtc Development and CuNurol Change; XV (19671, Append~xI. Inall cosesthem~d-polnts of Kuznets perlads were used