3 Oneofthemost commonbiases iswhatis known as thefundamental attributionerror.Through this people attributethefailures of others to character flawsand theirownto merecircumstance,subconsciouslyconsideringtheir owncharactersto bestainless."Jenkins lost his job because of his incompetence; I lost mine becauseof the recession."It also leads us to attribute our own success to ourqualifications,discountingluck,whileseeingothers'successastheproductofmereluck4 In other words,wetypically demand moreaccountability from others than wedofromourselves.Notonlydoes thisleadtopettyjudgments aboutotherpeople,italsoleads tofaulty risk assessment when you assumethat certain bad things onlyhappen toothers.Forexample,youmightassume,withoutevidence,thatthepriceofyourhousewill go up even though 90 percentof them have dropped in price, because you yourselfaremorecompetent.5 Confirmation bias is sometimes found together with fundamental attribution error.This onehas twoparts.First, we tendto gather and rely upon information that onlyconfirms our existing views. Second, we avoid or veto things that refute our pre-existinghypotheses.6For example, imagine that you suspect your computer has been hacked.Every timeit stalls or has a little error, you assume that it was triggered by a hacker and thatyour suspicions are valid.This bias plays an especiallybig role in rivalries betweentwo opposing views.Each side partitions their own beliefs in a logic-proof loop,andclaims their opponentisfailingtorecognizevalid points.Outwitting confirmation biasthereforerequires exploring both sides of an argument with equal diligence.7 Similar to confirmationbias is the overconfidencebias.In an ideal world, we could becorrect 100 percent of the time we were 100 percent sure about something,correct 80percentof the time we were 80 percent sure about something,and so on.In reality,people's confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments.This bias mostfrequently comes into play in areas where someone has no direct evidence and mustmakeaguess-estimating howmanypeopleare ina crowded plaza,for example,18New Horizon CollegeEnglishThird Edition
or how likely it will rain.To make matters worse, even when people are aware ofoverconfidence bias, they will still tend to overstate the chances that they are correct.Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence, Whenwitnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony ismeasured along with and against the evidenceat hand.8 The availability bias is also related to errors in estimation, in that we tend to estimatewhat outcome is more likely by how easily we can recount an example from memory.Sincethe retention and retrieval of memories is biased toward vivid, sensational, oremotionally charged examples, decisions based on them can often lead to strange,inaccurateconclusionsg Inaction this bias might lead someoneto cancel a trip to, for example, the CanaryIslands because of a report that the biggest plane crash in history happened there.Likewise somepeoplemight stop going out at night for fear ofassault orrape.Repelling the availabilitybias calls for an empirical approach to a particular decision,10onenotbased on the obscured realityofvivid memory.Ifthereis a lowincidence ofdisaster,like onlyone outof100,00planelandingsresults in a crash,itis safe toflytothe Canary Islands.If one out of one million people who go out is assaulted, it is safeto go out at night.11 Thesunk costfallacyhas a periodic application andwas firstidentifiedby economists.Agood example of how it works is the casino slot machine.Gamblers with a highthreshold for risk put money into a slot machine hoping for a big return, but witheach pull ofthe lever they lose some money playing the odds.If theyhave been pullingthe lever many times in a row without success, they might decide that they had betterkeep spending money at themachine, or they will have wasted everything they alreadyput in.The truth is that every pull of the lever has the same winning probability of nearly12one in a trillion, regardless of howmuch moneyhas been put in before-the previousplays were sunk costs.13 In everyday lifethis can lead people to stay in damaging situations because of howmuch they have already put in, stuck on the erroneous belief that the value of thattime or energy they have invested will decay or disappear if they leave.The wisestcourse is to recognize the effects of the sunk cost fallacy and to leave a bad situationregardless ofhow much you have already invested.14While there are still morebiases, the key to avoiding them remains the same: When adecision matters, it is bestto rely on watertight logic and a careful examination of theevidence and to remain aware that what seems like good intuition is always subject toerrorsof judgment.(972 words)19UNIT1Lifeand logic
New wordsorthodox /s:0a,dpks/acceptedbymostpeopleasthecorrectorusualideaorpractice传统的；公a.认的：通常的realm /relm/[C]1(fml.)aparticularareaofknowledge,experience,interest,etc.领域;.范围2 (mainly literary)a country ruled byaking orqueen 王国formulate /fo:mju,lert/developaplan,system,orproposal,etc.carefully,thinkingaboutallofitsut.details构想，制定（计划、制度、建议等）layman/'leimaon/[C] sb.who is not trained to a high or professional standard in a particular2.subject门外汉；外行stainless/'steinlas/1notspoiledbyanythingimmoralordishonest无污点的：无瑕症的；a.清白的2madeofatypeofsteelthatdoesnotrust不锈钢的[U]lackofskillorabilitytodosth.correctlyorwell无能力：不胜任；incompetence/nkomprt(a)ns/n1.不称职accountability/a,kaunta'bilatil[U]responsibilitytosb.orforsomeactivity负有责任：间责性petty I'peti/1unkindandcaringtoomuchaboutsmallunimportantdetails小心眼的;a.心胸狭窄的；只关注琐事的2（ofaproblem，detail,etc.）smallandunimportant（问题，细节等）小的，项碎的，不重要的vetoP'vitaolut.1refusetoacceptaparticularplanorsuggestion不同意，反对（某个计划或建议）2refuseto give official permission to sth.,esp.sth.thatother people orOrganizationshaveagreed否决（尤指他人或其他组织已赞同之事）1provethatastatementorideaisnotcorrect驳倒，反驳（陈述或观点）refute /rrfjurt/vt.2 say that a statement is not true or accurate without giving proof; deny驳斥：否认[CJ (pl.hypotheses) an idea that attempts to explain sth.but has not yethypothesis /hal'ppoasis/n.beentestedorprovedtobecorrect假设；假说hack /haek/1 use a computer to connect to sb.else's computer secretly and oftenillegally,sothatyoucan findorchangeinformationonit非法侵入（他人的计算机系统）2cutsth.inaroughway,withalotofenergy,ormanytimes劈；砍(of an engine or vehicle) suddenly stop working because there is notstall /st:l/V.enoughpowerorspeedtokeepitgoing（使）（发动机或车辆）停止运转，熄火(infml.)deliberately delay because you are not ready to do sth.,answervi.questions,etc.故意拖延(infml.)makesb.waitorstop sth.fromhappeninguntil youareready拖住；vt.拖延makesth，happenveryquickly使发生；引发；激发trigger /'trigalut[C]thepartofagunthatyoupullwithyourfingertofireit（枪的）扳机n.[C] sb.who uses a computer to connect to other people's computershacker"haekaln.20New Horizon College English Third Edition
secretly and often illegally,so thatthey can find or change information非法侵入他人计算机者：黑客rivalry/'rarvlri[C, U] a situation in which people, teams, businesses, etc, compete with onen.another竞争：对抗partition/par'tifn/ut.（usu.passive）dividearoomorvehiclewithapartition用阻隔物隔开（房间或交通工具）[C] a wall, screen,or piece ofglass used to separateone area fromanother inn.aroomorvehicle（房间或交通工具的）阻隔物，隔板，隔墙loop /lu:p/[C] a round shape or curvemade bya line curling back toward itself 环形;圈makearound shapeormakesth.intoaround shape（使）成圈（或环）；t.把·打成环plaza/'plaiza/n..[C]1 (mainly AmE) an area in a city where there are several shops andbusinesses（城市的）购物中心，商业区2a largeopenareawithahardsurfaceinacityortown（市镇的）广场overstate/,ouva'stert/(fml.)talk about sth.in a waythatmakes it seemmore important,U.impressive，orseverethanitreallyis把讲得过分：过分强调：夸大prophet /'profit/[C] 1 sb.whoclaimsthattheyknowwhat will happen inthefuture预言者n.2 a man who peoplein the Christian,Jewish,or Muslimreligion believe hasbeen sent by God to lead them and teach them theirreligious beliefs（基督教犹太教或伊斯兰教的）先知，神使testify/'testi,far/1 makea statementabout sth.you saw,know,orexperienced,usu.inaU.courtoflaw（通常指在法庭上）作证，证明2provideevidencethatsth.existsoristrue证明；证实testimony/'testimani/n.1 [C, U] a formal statement about sth.that you saw,know, or experienced,usu.giveninacourtoflaw（法庭上作的）证词2[singU]evidencethatsth.existsoristrue证据；证明recount /rr'kaont/(fml.）saywhathappened叙述ut.'ris,kaunt/n.[C] an occasion when sth.is counted again, esp.the votes in an election重新计算：（尤指）重点选票[U](fml.)1theactofkeepingorstoringsth.保存：存放retention /rr'tenfn/t.2theabilitytokeepworkers orcustomersfrom leavinga company,orstudentsfromleavingaschool保留：留住retrieval /rr'trivl/[U] 1 the process of getting sth.back that was lost or not in its usual placen.重新找回收回：取回2 (computing)the process of getting back information stored insideacomputerinorderto useitagain检索assault/a'ss:lt/[C, Uj 1 a physical attack on sb., or the crime of physically attacking sb.n.人身攻击；侵犯人身罪2a strongspokenorwrittencriticismofsb.else'sideas,plans,etc.击attacksb.violently暴力攻击；装击ut.1[C,U] the crime of forcing sb.to havesexbyusing violence强好rape/rerp/n.(罪）2[sing.]destructionofsth.，esp.theenvironment破坏，糟竭（尤指对环境）ut.forcesb.tohave sexbyusingviolence强好21UNIT1Life and logid
repel /r'pel/1keepsth.orsb.awayfromyou驱除ut.2(of sth.）makesb.feel sounpleasantthattheywanttoavoidit使庆恶：使反感empirical /m'pirrkl/based on real experience or scientific experiments rather than on theory经a.验主义的：以科学实验为根据的obscure/sb'skjoa/1makesth.difficulttounderstand使难解；搞混：使变模棚ut.2coversth.sothatitcannotbeseen；hide遮拖：遮蔽1notknownaboutornotwellknown不知晓的：无名的a.2notclearlyexpressedornoteasytounderstand嗨涩的；费解的incidence /'insid()ns/[C, usu.sing.] (fml.) the number oftimes sth.happens, esp.crime, disease,n.etc.（尤指犯罪、疾病等的）发生率periodic/.piari'pdik/(ontybeforenoun)happeningregularlythoughnotfrequently阶段性的；定期a.的casino/ka'si:nau/n.[C]a place wherepeopleriskmoneyinthe hopeof winningmore赌场slot/slot/[C]1alongnarrowholethatyoucanfitsth.into（可投入东西的）狭长孔，n.狭槽2 a time during a series of events when it is arranged that sth.will happen（在一系列事件中为某事安排的）时间，空档threshold"eref,hauld/[C]1thelevelatwhichsth.startstohappenorhaveaneffect（某事开始发n.生或产生效果的）起始点，限度2theentrancetoa room orbuilding,orthearea offloororground attheentrance门口：门槛trillion /'triljon/1averylargenumberoramountofsth.极多：大量：无数num.2thenumber1,000,000,000,000万亿(fml.）notcorrect错误的erroneous /t'raunis/a.decay/dr'ker1becomegraduallyworseinquality,orweakerinpowerorinfluence(品vi.质）变糟；（权力或影响）衰退，衰败2 (of the condition ofa building,an area,etc.)gradually become worsebecauseithasnotbeenlookedafter（建筑、地区等）遂渐破败，逐渐衰败begraduallydestroyedas a result of a natural processof change,onU.destroysth.inthisway（使）腐烂；（使）腐败1(ofanargument,plan,etc.)madevery carefully sothatpeoplecannotwatertight/woito,tait/a.findanymistakesinit（论点、计划等）严密的，无解可击的2 (ofa container,roof,door,etc.)madecarefully sothat water cannotgetinorout（容器、屋顶、门等）不透水的，防水的，水密的Phrases and expressionsbecauseof;asaresultof因为；由于；凭借by virtue ofincludea particularamountorfactorwhenyou calculate sth.把-计入；factor sth.into sth.把·考虑在内believethat sth.is theresultofa particular situation,event,or person'sattribute sth.to sb./sth.actions把·归因于22New Horizon College English Third Edition