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Example candies: of bags of kinds five re a there ose Supp candies cherry 100% : 1 h re a 10% candies lime 25% + candies cherry 75% : 2 h re a 20% candies lime 50% + candies cherry 50% : 3 h re a 40% candies lime 75% + candies cherry 25% : 4 h re a 20% candies lime 100% : 5 h re a 10% bag: some from wn dra candies observe e w Then e? b candy next the will flavour What it? is bag of kind What 4 1–3 Sections 20, Chapter
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otheses yp h of y probabilit osterior P 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 10 8 6 4 2 0 Posterior probability of hypothesis d Number of samples in ) d | 1 h( P ) d | 2 h( P ) d | 3 h( P ) d | 4 h( P ) d | 5 h( P 5 1–3 Sections 20, Chapter