引言(Preface)·与自然科学不同，社会科学更加强调社会情景、社会差异和社会分组，因此Duncan奠定的定量社会科学研究新范式是建立在批判通过模仿自然科学以寻求普遍社会规律的研究范式的基础上的 Three basic principles of social scienceresearch: Variability Principle, Social GroupingPrinciple and Social Context Principle6
引言(Preface) • 与自然科学不同，社会科学更加强调社会情 景、社会差异和社会分组，因此Duncan奠定 的定量社会科学研究新范式是建立在批判通 过模仿自然科学以寻求普遍社会规律的研究 范式的基础上的 • Three basic principles of social science research：Variability Principle, Social Grouping Principle and Social Context Principle 6
引言(Preface)·随着统计学被引入社会科学研究，使得过去的50年中，社会科学总的趋势是向更为严格清晰的假设；更大更详细的数据集合发展With the introduction of statistics, the socialscience research becomes more rigorous andempirical (clear assumptions and large dataset)
引言(Preface) • 随着统计学被引入社会科学研究，使得过去 的50年中，社会科学总的趋势是向更为严格、 清晰的假设；更大更详细的数据集合发展。 • With the introduction of statistics, the social science research becomes more rigorous and empirical (clear assumptions and large data set ) 7
引言(Preface)·统计方法在社会科学领域成功地走过了半世纪，一方面使得该学科研究的水平有了重大的提高，另一方面为了拟合数据，统计模型变得越来越复杂。Statistical models are becoming more anomorecomplex
引言(Preface) • 统计方法在社会科学领域成功地走过了半世 纪，一方面使得该学科研究的水平有了重大 的提高，另一方面为了拟合数据，统计模型 变得越来越复杂。 • Statistical models are becoming more and more complex 8
引言(Preface)Adrian.E.Raftery:Statistics In Sociology,1950-2000:ASelectiveReviewHeidentified three overlapping postwargenerations of statisticalmethods in sociology, based on the kinds of data they address. Thefirstgeneration,whichstartedinthelate1940s,dealswithcross-tabulations and focuses on measures of association andlog-linearmodels,perhapstheareaofstatisticstowhichsociologyhascontributed themost.The second generation,whichbeganinthe1960s,dealswithunit-levelsurveydataandfocusesonLisREL-typecausal models and event-history analysis.Thethird generation,starting toemerge in the late1980s,deals withdata that do not falleasilyintoeitherofthesecategories,eitherbecausetheyhaveadifferent form, such as texts or narratives, or because dependence isacrucial aspect, as with spatial or social network data.There are manynewchallenges,andtheareaisripeforstatisticalresearch;severalmajorinstitutionshaverecentlylaunchednewinitiativesinstatisticsandthesocialsciences.以交互表为代表的第一代统计方法，和面向个体层次调查数据的第二代统计方法都关注属性研究，作为第三代统计方法关注的社会网络数据，侧重关系研究，需要发展新的分析方法9
引言(Preface) • Adrian. E. Raftery: Statistics In Sociology, 1950–2000: A Selective Review • He identified three overlapping postwar generations of statistical methods in sociology, based on the kinds of data they address. The first generation, which started in the late 1940s, deals with cross‐tabulations and focuses on measures of association and log‐linear models, perhaps the area of statistics to which sociology has contributed the most. The second generation, which began in the 1960s, deals with unit‐level survey data and focuses on LISREL‐type causal models and event‐history analysis. The third generation, starting to emerge in the late 1980s, deals with data that do not fall easily into either of these categories, either because they have a different form, such as texts or narratives, or because dependence is a crucial aspect, as with spatial or social network data. There are many new challenges, and the area is ripe for statistical research; several major institutions have recently launched new initiatives in statistics and the social sciences. • 以交互表为代表的第一代统计方法，和面向个体层次调查数据的第 二代统计方法都关注属性研究，作为第三代统计方法关注的社会网 络数据，侧重关系研究，需要发展新的分析方法。 9
引言(Preface)·从统计分析开始(Startwith statisticalanalysis):一自然科学(Natural science)：·方程（一般、客观规律）·Equation(Objectivelaws)一社会科学(Social science)：·一个例子：什么因素影响中学生的学习成绩？: Example: What factors affect the grades of high schoolstudents10
引言(Preface) • 从统计分析开始(Start with statistical analysis)： – 自然科学(Natural science)： • 方程（一般、客观规律） • Equation (Objective laws) – 社会科学(Social science)： • 一个例子：什么因素影响中学生的学习成绩？ • Example: What factors affect the grades of high school students 10