第15章应用统计决策 Statistical decision
第15章 应用统计决策 Statistical Decision
本章概要 .The payoff Table and Decision Trees Opportunity Loss Criteria for Decision Making Expected Monetary value Expected Profit Under Certainty Return to risk ratio .Decision Making with Sample Information Utility
本章概要 •The Payoff Table and Decision Trees •Opportunity Loss •Criteria for Decision Making •Expected Monetary Value •Expected Profit Under Certainty •Return to Risk Ratio •Decision Making with Sample Information •Utility
Features of Decision Making 决策特征 o List Alternative courses of action (Possible Events or Outcomes e Determine Payoffs? (AsSociate a Payoff with Each Event or Outcome) Adopt Decision Criteria (Evaluate Criteria for Selecting the Best Course of Action)
Features of Decision Making 决策特征 •List Alternative Courses of Action (Possible Events or Outcomes) •Determine Payoffs? (Associate a Payoff with Each Event or Outcome) •Adopt Decision Criteria (Evaluate Criteria for Selecting the Best Course of Action)
List possible actions or events 可能行为与事件清单 Two Methods of Listing I Payoff Table Decision Tree
List Possible Actions or Events 可能行为与事件清单 Payoff Table Decision Tree Two Methods of Listing
Payoff Table 盈利表 Consider a food vendor determining whether to sell soft drinks or hot dogs. Course of Action(Ai Event (Ei Sell Soft Drinks(A, Sell Hot Dogs(A2 Cool Weather (Eu 1=S50 12=S100 Warm Weather (E2) x21=200 125 i- payoff(profit) for event i and action j
Event (Ei ) Cool Weather (E1 ) x11 =$50 x12 = $100 Warm Weather (E2 ) x21 = 200 x22 = 125 Payoff Table 盈利表 Consider a food vendor determining whether to sell soft drinks or hot dogs. Course of Action (Aj ) Sell Soft Drinks (A1 ) Sell Hot Dogs (A2 ) xij = payoff (profit) for event i and action j