Decision Tree决策树): Example Food Vendor Profit Tree Diagram ther s50 Weal W D rm Weather 200 ot D 100 wes the 12 Warm Weath X2=125
Decision Tree（决策树）:Example Food Vendor Profit Tree Diagram x11 = $50 x21 = 200 x22 =125 x12 = 100
Opportunity loss(机会损失) Example Highest possible profit for an event E Actual profit obtained for an action A Opportunity Loss(i) Event: Cool Weather Action: Soft Drinks Profit: S50 Alternative Action: Hot Dogs Profit: S100 Opportunity Loss=$100-$50=$50
Opportunity Loss（机会损失）: Example Highest possible profit for an event Ei - Actual profit obtained for an action Aj Opportunity Loss (l ij ) Event: Cool Weather Action: Soft Drinks Profit: $50 Alternative Action: Hot Dogs Profit: $100 Opportunity Loss = $100 - $50 = $50
Opportunity Loss: Table Alternative Course of Action Event Optimal Profit of Sell Soft Drinks Sell Hot Dogs Action Optimal Action Cool Hot 100 100-50=50100-100=0 Weather Dogs Warm Soft 200 200-200=0 200-125=75 Weather Drinks
Opportunity Loss: Table Event Optimal Profit of Sell Soft Drinks Sell Hot Dogs Action Optimal Action Cool Hot 100 100 - 50 = 50 100 - 100 = 0 Weather Dogs Warm Soft 200 200 - 200 = 0 200 - 125 = 75 Weather Drinks Alternative Course of Action
Decision criteria 决策准则 Expected Monetary Value (EMv) The expected profit for taking an action Expected Opportunity Loss (o) The expected loss for not taking action A Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI) The expected opportunity loss from the best decision
Decision Criteria 决策准则 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) • The expected profit for taking an action Aj Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) • The expected loss for not taking action Aj Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) • The expected opportunity loss from the best decision