434 International Organization positively or negatively affects individuals economically.With these data,we exam- ine not only the dominant political economy models,but also the sociotropic hypoth- esis,which is the preference formation model most widely documented in public opinion research on economic policy preferences.In so doing,we not only improve our overall understanding of the origins of attitudes toward trade,we also reveal the importance of the kind of political information that reaches citizens in explain- ing American preferences in this policy domain. Study Design Using two representative national surveys,we attempt to move beyond ecological inferences and the limitations of previous individual-level surveys by asking work- ing and temporarily unemployed Americans about their attitudes toward trade and related matters.One was a telephone survey conducted as part of the National Annenberg Election Study (NAES)during the summer of 2004.32 The other was a survey conducted via Internet or Web TV by Knowledge Networks(KN)in sum- mer2007. We focus on the attitudes of Americans for various reasons.First,the United States has been the dominant country in the global trading system for more than half a century.As a result,social scientists have expressed substantial interest in the factors driving U.S.trade policy.The attitudes of Americans toward trade are likely to influence outcomes in this policy arena.33 Second,a number of key stud- ies of trade attitudes center on the United States.34 Focusing on the attitudes of Americans should enhance the comparability of our results to these previous analyses. The Dependent Variables Two survey questions served to construct the dependent variables in the analyses based on the NAES survey: 1.As you may know,international trade has increased substantially in recent years.This increase is due to the lowering of trade barriers between coun- tries,that is,tariffs or taxes that make it more difficult or more expensive to buy and sell things across international borders.Do you think government should try to encourage international trade or to discourage international 32.The conservative AAPOR Response Rate I calculation was 23 percent,which represents a min- imum possible response rate. 33.Fordham and McKeown 2003. 34.See,for example,Bauer,Pool,and Dexter 1963;Scheve and Slaughter 2001;Burgoon and His- cox 2004;and Hainmueller and Hiscox 2006,474-81,487-91
positively or negatively affects individuals economically+ With these data, we examine not only the dominant political economy models, but also the sociotropic hypothesis, which is the preference formation model most widely documented in public opinion research on economic policy preferences+ In so doing, we not only improve our overall understanding of the origins of attitudes toward trade, we also reveal the importance of the kind of political information that reaches citizens in explaining American preferences in this policy domain+ Study Design Using two representative national surveys, we attempt to move beyond ecological inferences and the limitations of previous individual-level surveys by asking working and temporarily unemployed Americans about their attitudes toward trade and related matters+ One was a telephone survey conducted as part of the National Annenberg Election Study ~NAES! during the summer of 2004+ 32 The other was a survey conducted via Internet or Web TV by Knowledge Networks ~KN! in summer 2007+ We focus on the attitudes of Americans for various reasons+ First, the United States has been the dominant country in the global trading system for more than half a century+ As a result, social scientists have expressed substantial interest in the factors driving U+S+ trade policy+ The attitudes of Americans toward trade are likely to influence outcomes in this policy arena+ 33 Second, a number of key studies of trade attitudes center on the United States+ 34 Focusing on the attitudes of Americans should enhance the comparability of our results to these previous analyses+ The Dependent Variables Two survey questions served to construct the dependent variables in the analyses based on the NAES survey: 1+ As you may know, international trade has increased substantially in recent years. This increase is due to the lowering of trade barriers between countries, that is, tariffs or taxes that make it more difficult or more expensive to buy and sell things across international borders. Do you think government should try to encourage international trade or to discourage international 32+ The conservative AAPOR Response Rate I calculation was 23 percent, which represents a minimum possible response rate+ 33+ Fordham and McKeown 2003+ 34+ See, for example, Bauer, Pool, and Dexter 1963; Scheve and Slaughter 2001; Burgoon and Hiscox 2004; and Hainmueller and Hiscox 2006, 474–81, 487–91+ 434 International Organization
Self-Interest,Sociotropic Politics,and Out-Group Anxiety 435 trade?Do you think the government should [encourage/discourage]this a lot or only a little？ 2.I'm going to read you some actions the federal government in Washington can take on a variety of issues.For each one please tell me whether you favor or oppose the federal government doing it....How about the federal government negotiating more free trade agreements like NAFTA?Do you favor or oppose the federal government doing this?Is that strongly [favor/oppose] or only somewhat [favor/oppose]? Each item was scored on a five-point scale,or a four-point scale in the KN sur- vey.35 The highest(lowest)score was assigned to respondents who believed that the government should encourage(discourage)international trade a lot and who strongly favored (opposed)the government negotiating free trade agreements,respectively.3 Our first dependent variable is the mean score for these two items.The second dependent variable is an ordered trichotomous measure that equals 1 if a respon- dent opposes free trade agreements and believes that international trade should be discouraged,and 3 if he or she favors free trade agreements and believes that international trade should be encouraged.All other respondents were scored as 2. This variable therefore groups individuals based on whether they have a consis- tent preference for open trade or protectionism,or whether their preferences are inconsistent.37 Five survey questions were used to generate the dependent variable for the analy- sis based on the KN survey.The first two questions were identical to those described earlier,but three additional items were asked as well: 3.Do you believe that globalization,especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world,is good or bad for the United States? 4.Should foreign companies be encouraged or discouraged from investing in the United States,for example,by building their factories in this country? 5.Do you have a very favorable,somewhat favorable,somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the WTO,the World Trade Organization? Each of these items was scored on a four-point scale.The highest (lowest)score was assigned to respondents who believed that the government should strongly 35.These two items are especially useful because one segment of the literature on trade policy preferences focuses on free trade agreements and another segment addresses more general attitudes toward trade.On this first segment,see,for example,Balistreri 1997;and Baker 2003. 36.For the first item,individuals who expressed no opinion or refused to answer were assigned to a middle category;for the second item,such individuals were grouped with respondents who neither favored nor opposed free trade agreements. 37.Combining these two items has various advantages,chiefly that the dependent variable is a more reliable measure and less prone to problems associated with idiosyncratic wording or measure- ment error than if we analyzed each item separately.On this issue,see Baker 2003,444,fn.35
trade? Do you think the government should [encourage/discourage] this a lot or only a little? 2+ I’m going to read you some actions the federal government in Washington can take on a variety of issues. For each one please tell me whether you favor or oppose the federal government doing it. . . . How about the federal government negotiating more free trade agreements like NAFTA? Do you favor or oppose the federal government doing this? Is that strongly [favor/oppose] or only somewhat [favor/oppose]? Each item was scored on a five-point scale, or a four-point scale in the KN survey+ 35 The highest ~lowest! score was assigned to respondents who believed that the government should encourage ~discourage! international trade a lot and who strongly favored ~opposed! the government negotiating free trade agreements, respectively+ 36 Our first dependent variable is the mean score for these two items+ The second dependent variable is an ordered trichotomous measure that equals 1 if a respondent opposes free trade agreements and believes that international trade should be discouraged, and 3 if he or she favors free trade agreements and believes that international trade should be encouraged+ All other respondents were scored as 2+ This variable therefore groups individuals based on whether they have a consistent preference for open trade or protectionism, or whether their preferences are inconsistent+ 37 Five survey questions were used to generate the dependent variable for the analysis based on the KN survey+ The first two questions were identical to those described earlier, but three additional items were asked as well: 3+ Do you believe that globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world, is good or bad for the United States? 4+ Should foreign companies be encouraged or discouraged from investing in the United States, for example, by building their factories in this country? 5+ Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the WTO, the World Trade Organization? Each of these items was scored on a four-point scale+ The highest ~lowest! score was assigned to respondents who believed that the government should strongly 35+ These two items are especially useful because one segment of the literature on trade policy preferences focuses on free trade agreements and another segment addresses more general attitudes toward trade+ On this first segment, see, for example, Balistreri 1997; and Baker 2003+ 36+ For the first item, individuals who expressed no opinion or refused to answer were assigned to a middle category; for the second item, such individuals were grouped with respondents who neither favored nor opposed free trade agreements+ 37+ Combining these two items has various advantages, chiefly that the dependent variable is a more reliable measure and less prone to problems associated with idiosyncratic wording or measurement error than if we analyzed each item separately+ On this issue, see Baker 2003, 444, fn+ 35+ Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety 435