Lesson 1 Analysis of Economic Data is difficult but intuitive Ka-fu Wong C2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1-1
Ka-fu Wong © 2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson1-1 Lesson 1: Analysis of Economic Data is difficult but intuitive
Outline Capture-Recapture experiment Estimator Simulations what is Statistics? Sampling How to estimate unemployment rate? Ka-fu Wong C2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1-2
Ka-fu Wong © 2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson1-2 Outline Capture-Recapture experiment Estimator Simulations What is Statistics? Sampling How to estimate unemployment rate?
Capture/Re-capture Goali 1. Illustrate that how to estimate the population size when the cost of counting all individuals is prohibitive 2. Illustrate how intuitive statistics could be. statistics need not be completely deep, murky and mysterious. Our common sense can help us to negotiate our way through the course Ka-fu Wong C2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1-3
Ka-fu Wong © 2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson1-3 Capture/Re-capture Goal: 1. Illustrate that how to estimate the population size when the cost of counting all individuals is prohibitive. 2. Illustrate how intuitive statistics could be. Statistics need not be completely deep, murky, and mysterious. Our common sense can help us to negotiate our way through the course
Counting the stones We are interested in knowing the number of black stones in the box a We only need to do to obtain a reasonable estimate of stones in the box-allowing for errors of counting or estimation Ka-fu Wong C2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1-4
Ka-fu Wong © 2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson1-4 Counting the stones ◼ We are interested in knowing the number of black stones in the box. ◼ We only need to do to obtain a reasonable estimate of stones in the box – allowing for errors of counting or estimation
Two examples Example #1: The box contains only a small number of stones Ka-fu Wong C2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1-5
Ka-fu Wong © 2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson1-5 Two examples ◼ Example #1: The box contains only a small number of stones