MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA* Katherine Trent Department of Sociology Center for Social and Demographic Analysis University at Albany State University of New York Albany,NY 12222 Phone:518-442-4681 E-mail:k.trent@albany.edu Fax:518-442-4936 Scott J.South Department of Sociology Center for Social and Demographic Analysis University at Albany State University of New York Albany,NY 12222 Phone:518-442-4691 E-mail:s.south@albany.edu Fax:518-442-4936 November 2010 Word count:7493 Number of Tables:2 Running Head:Mate Availability and Women's Sexual Experiences *Direct correspondence to Katherine Trent,Department of Sociology,University at Albany, SUNY,Albany,NY 12222.E-mail:k.trent@albany.edu.We thank Yong Cai,Baochang Gu, Lin Guo,Zai Liang,Jeremy Pais,William Parish,Kelly McGeever,and Carey Sojka for helpful assistance.This research was supported by a grant to the authors from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development(R21 HD057289).The Center for Social and Demographic Analysis of the University at Albany provided technical and administrative support for this research through a grant from NICHD (R24 HD044943)
MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA* Katherine Trent Department of Sociology Center for Social and Demographic Analysis University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 Phone: 518-442-4681 E-mail: k.trent@albany.edu Fax: 518-442-4936 Scott J. South Department of Sociology Center for Social and Demographic Analysis University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 Phone: 518-442-4691 E-mail: s.south@albany.edu Fax: 518-442-4936 November 2010 Word count: 7493 Number of Tables: 2 Running Head: Mate Availability and Women’s Sexual Experiences *Direct correspondence to Katherine Trent, Department of Sociology, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY 12222. E-mail: k.trent@albany.edu. We thank Yong Cai, Baochang Gu, Lin Guo, Zai Liang, Jeremy Pais, William Parish, Kelly McGeever, and Carey Sojka for helpful assistance. This research was supported by a grant to the authors from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R21 HD057289). The Center for Social and Demographic Analysis of the University at Albany provided technical and administrative support for this research through a grant from NICHD (R24 HD044943)
MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA Abstract We use data from the 1999-2000 Chinese Health and Family Life Survey merged with community-level data from the 1982,1990,and 2000 Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between the local sex ratio(number of men per 100 women)and sexual outcomes among women.Consistent with hypotheses derived from demographic-opportunity theory, logistic regression analyses show that women are more likely to have had recent and nonmarital sexual intercourse,to have been forced to have sex,and to test positive for a sexually-transmitted infection when there is a relative abundance of age-matched men in their local community. Education,birth cohort,and geographic location also emerge as significant predictors of women's sexual experiences
MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA Abstract We use data from the 1999-2000 Chinese Health and Family Life Survey merged with community-level data from the 1982, 1990, and 2000 Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between the local sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) and sexual outcomes among women. Consistent with hypotheses derived from demographic-opportunity theory, logistic regression analyses show that women are more likely to have had recent and nonmarital sexual intercourse, to have been forced to have sex, and to test positive for a sexually-transmitted infection when there is a relative abundance of age-matched men in their local community. Education, birth cohort, and geographic location also emerge as significant predictors of women’s sexual experiences
MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA The relative number of young men and women in the People's Republic of China has undergone remarkable change over recent decades.China's one-child policy,precipitous declines in fertility,a cultural preference for sons,and sex-selective abortion,have led to a surplus of men in recent decades(Banister 2004;Goodkind 2004).Many scholars have pointed to an unusually high sex ratio at birth in China(e.g.,Cai and Lavely 2003;Coale and Banister 1994;Gu and Roy 1995;Hull 1990;Johansson and Nygren 1991;Lavely 2001;Murphy 2003;Peng and Huang 1999;Secondi 2002;Yi et al.1993:Yuan and Tu 2004).A normal range of the sex ratio at birth (number of males per 100 females)is considered to be between 103 and 107.In 1982,China's sex ratio at birth-between 107 and 108-was already at the high end of this range,and it has increased dramatically since that time.By 1990 the sex ratio at birth had grown to 111.3,by 2001 it was 118(Poston and Glover 2005),and by 2005 it had reached 120.5(Li 2007) Given these changes in the sex ratio at birth,China is expected to experience a pronounced surplus of adult men relative to adult women as these birth cohorts age(Tuljapurkar, Li,and Feldman 1995).Some observers suggest that this increasing population of excess men will have far-reaching social and demographic consequences,contributing to the spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections(STIs).Poston and Glover(2005)suggest that an increase in commercial sex will hasten the spread of HIV/AIDS.Tucker and colleagues(2005; see also Ebenstein and Jennings 2009)speculate that other high sexual risk behaviors among surplus men will facilitate transmission of HIV/AIDS and other STIs throughout the population. However,there is little systematic empirical research on how imbalanced sex ratios influence sexual behaviors in China or in other populations.In this paper,we examine the effect of imbalanced sex ratios on several aspects of Chinese women's sexual experiences.Given 1
1 MATE AVAILABILITY AND WOMEN'S SEXUAL EXPERIENCES IN CHINA The relative number of young men and women in the People’s Republic of China has undergone remarkable change over recent decades. China’s one-child policy, precipitous declines in fertility, a cultural preference for sons, and sex-selective abortion, have led to a surplus of men in recent decades (Banister 2004; Goodkind 2004). Many scholars have pointed to an unusually high sex ratio at birth in China (e.g., Cai and Lavely 2003; Coale and Banister 1994; Gu and Roy 1995; Hull 1990; Johansson and Nygren 1991; Lavely 2001; Murphy 2003; Peng and Huang 1999; Secondi 2002; Yi et al. 1993; Yuan and Tu 2004). A normal range of the sex ratio at birth (number of males per 100 females) is considered to be between 103 and 107. In 1982, China’s sex ratio at birth—between 107 and 108—was already at the high end of this range, and it has increased dramatically since that time. By 1990 the sex ratio at birth had grown to 111.3, by 2001 it was 118 (Poston and Glover 2005), and by 2005 it had reached 120.5 (Li 2007). Given these changes in the sex ratio at birth, China is expected to experience a pronounced surplus of adult men relative to adult women as these birth cohorts age (Tuljapurkar, Li, and Feldman 1995). Some observers suggest that this increasing population of excess men will have far-reaching social and demographic consequences, contributing to the spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Poston and Glover (2005) suggest that an increase in commercial sex will hasten the spread of HIV/AIDS. Tucker and colleagues (2005; see also Ebenstein and Jennings 2009) speculate that other high sexual risk behaviors among surplus men will facilitate transmission of HIV/AIDS and other STIs throughout the population. However, there is little systematic empirical research on how imbalanced sex ratios influence sexual behaviors in China or in other populations. In this paper, we examine the effect of imbalanced sex ratios on several aspects of Chinese women’s sexual experiences. Given
recent changes and substantial inter-community variation in its sex ratio,China represents an opportune case for examining the impact of imbalanced sex ratios on women's sexual outcomes. Our conceptual framework is grounded in demographic-opportunity theory,which broadly suggests that a surplus of men will shape both the frequency and form of women's sexual encounters.We test hypotheses derived from this theory using individual-level data from the Chinese Health and Family Life Survey(CHFLS)merged with community-level data taken from three Chinese censuses.From the Chinese censuses we create cohort-specific and community- specific sex ratios describing the number of men available to women,and we then attach these sex ratios to the individual records of the female respondents to the CHFLS.We then estimate logistic regression models linking four outcomes-whether women have engaged in recent sexual intercourse,have been victims of forced sex,have had nonmarital sex,and whether they test positive for an STI-to the sex ratio in their local community. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES A common theoretical framework from which to address the effect of imbalanced sex ratios on sexual and familial behavior is demographic-opportunity theory(South,Trent,and Shen 2001;Uecker and Regnerus 2010).Demographic-opportunity considers the distribution of the population by sex,as well as by other critical sociodemographic characteristics such as age and race,to be a defining characteristic of social structure(Blau 1977).A fundamental premise of demographic-opportunity theory is that the likelihood of social contact between people with different demographic attributes-for example,between women and men-is determined in part by the number of available out-group members with whom such contacts could occur.Thus, demographic-opportunity theory emphasizes how the sheer number of men available to women shapes the frequency and form of women's sexual encounters.When applied to women's sexual 2
2 recent changes and substantial inter-community variation in its sex ratio, China represents an opportune case for examining the impact of imbalanced sex ratios on women’s sexual outcomes. Our conceptual framework is grounded in demographic-opportunity theory, which broadly suggests that a surplus of men will shape both the frequency and form of women’s sexual encounters. We test hypotheses derived from this theory using individual-level data from the Chinese Health and Family Life Survey (CHFLS) merged with community-level data taken from three Chinese censuses. From the Chinese censuses we create cohort-specific and communityspecific sex ratios describing the number of men available to women, and we then attach these sex ratios to the individual records of the female respondents to the CHFLS. We then estimate logistic regression models linking four outcomes—whether women have engaged in recent sexual intercourse, have been victims of forced sex, have had nonmarital sex, and whether they test positive for an STI—to the sex ratio in their local community. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES A common theoretical framework from which to address the effect of imbalanced sex ratios on sexual and familial behavior is demographic-opportunity theory (South, Trent, and Shen 2001; Uecker and Regnerus 2010). Demographic-opportunity considers the distribution of the population by sex, as well as by other critical sociodemographic characteristics such as age and race, to be a defining characteristic of social structure (Blau 1977). A fundamental premise of demographic-opportunity theory is that the likelihood of social contact between people with different demographic attributes—for example, between women and men—is determined in part by the number of available out-group members with whom such contacts could occur. Thus, demographic-opportunity theory emphasizes how the sheer number of men available to women shapes the frequency and form of women’s sexual encounters. When applied to women’s sexual
experiences,demographic-opportunity theory suggests that the probability of engaging in recent or nonmarital sexual intercourse,of being the victim of forced sex,and of testing positive for a STI increases along with the number of men in the local population. Prior tests of demographic-opportunity theory have focused primarily on how imbalanced sex ratios affect marital and familial behavior in the United States.We know that women's marriage rates are higher in geographic areas containing more eligible and economically attractive men (e.g.,Fossett and Kiecolt 1993;Lichter et al.1992;McLaughlin,Lichter,and Johnston 1993).A surplus of men has also been linked to young women's chances of"marrying up"educationally,although there is little evidence that sex ratios affect educational or occupational marital heterogamy (Lichter,Anderson,and Hayward 1995). High sex ratios,indicating an excess of men relative to women,are also associated with an increase in women's risk of nonmarital childbearing (Billy and Moore 1992;South and Lloyd 1992).Ostensibly,a numerical surplus of men increases young women's risk of unmarried childbearing by increasing the likelihood that they will engage in premarital intercourse,although this association is likely tempered by an accompanying risk of early marriage(South 1996) Similar findings have been observed in cross-national studies(Barber 2001;2004;South and Trent 1988).Imbalanced sex ratios have also been linked to marital dissolution and relationship quality.A surplus of women lowers relationship quality among unmarried parents(Harknett 2008),though not among married persons more generally(Trent and South 2003).Several studies suggest that married couples who are exposed to either a surplus of men or women are more likely to divorce,presumably because in these demographic contexts spouses are especially likely to encounter an attractive alternative to their current partner(McKinnish 2004;South, Trent,and Shen 2001). 3
3 experiences, demographic-opportunity theory suggests that the probability of engaging in recent or nonmarital sexual intercourse, of being the victim of forced sex, and of testing positive for a STI increases along with the number of men in the local population. Prior tests of demographic-opportunity theory have focused primarily on how imbalanced sex ratios affect marital and familial behavior in the United States. We know that women’s marriage rates are higher in geographic areas containing more eligible and economically attractive men (e.g., Fossett and Kiecolt 1993; Lichter et al. 1992; McLaughlin, Lichter, and Johnston 1993). A surplus of men has also been linked to young women’s chances of ―marrying up‖ educationally, although there is little evidence that sex ratios affect educational or occupational marital heterogamy (Lichter, Anderson, and Hayward 1995). High sex ratios, indicating an excess of men relative to women, are also associated with an increase in women’s risk of nonmarital childbearing (Billy and Moore 1992; South and Lloyd 1992). Ostensibly, a numerical surplus of men increases young women’s risk of unmarried childbearing by increasing the likelihood that they will engage in premarital intercourse, although this association is likely tempered by an accompanying risk of early marriage (South 1996). Similar findings have been observed in cross-national studies (Barber 2001; 2004; South and Trent 1988). Imbalanced sex ratios have also been linked to marital dissolution and relationship quality. A surplus of women lowers relationship quality among unmarried parents (Harknett 2008), though not among married persons more generally (Trent and South 2003). Several studies suggest that married couples who are exposed to either a surplus of men or women are more likely to divorce, presumably because in these demographic contexts spouses are especially likely to encounter an attractive alternative to their current partner (McKinnish 2004; South, Trent, and Shen 2001)