台湾政治转型的原因 上海交通大学 国际与公共事务学院教授、博导 林冈
台湾政治转型的原因 上海交通大学 国际与公共事务学院教授、博导 林冈
1.政治转型的观察视角 Modernization theory (developmental approach) Economic growth,social equality,and pluralism are three compatible goals o Economic growth that presupposes market freedom will lead to information (literacy,education and media) diffusion and social equality (equal distribution of social wealth)
1.政治转型的观察视角 • Modernization theory (developmental approach) • Economic growth, social equality, and pluralism are three compatible goals • Economic growth that presupposes market freedom will lead to – information (literacy, education and media) diffusion and social equality (equal distribution of social wealth)
现代化理论 -social plurality,autonomy,differentiation, specialization -cultural secularization,individualization and rationalization -rise of middle class and interest group political mobilization and competition democratic transition
现代化理论 – social plurality, autonomy, differentiation, specialization – cultural secularization, individualization and rationalization – rise of middle class and interest group – political mobilization and competition – democratic transition
Theories of Democratization Two competitive paradigms(structure- agent debate) School of democratic conditions,or structure- oriented approach,assuming "political actors' face limited choice sets What makes democracy possible,and when? -School of democratic process,focusing on the strategic moves of the actors Who wants democracy and how?
Theories of Democratization • Two competitive paradigms (structure- agent debate) – School of democratic conditions, or structure- oriented approach, assuming “political actors” face limited choice sets • What makes democracy possible, and when? – School of democratic process, focusing on the strategic moves of the actors • Who wants democracy and how?
Socioeconomic Approach ·Strengths -theoretical elegance methodological measurability -empirical verifiability ·Veakness the exact correlation between socioeconomic development and democratization The Predicting power of per capita GDP Taiwan,SK in 1970s,and Singapore
Socioeconomic Approach • Strengths – theoretical elegance – methodological measurability – empirical verifiability • Weakness – the exact correlation between socioeconomic development and democratization • The Predicting power of per capita GDP • Taiwan, SK in 1970s, and Singapore