Methodological Problem? ·Wila“modern dynamic pluralist society" necessarily lead to democracy? Socioeconomic developments as independent and continual variables Democratization as a dependent and dichotomous(democracy or non-democracy) variable Can we employ quantitative changes in social structure to explain a qualitative breakthrough in the political system?
Methodological Problem? • Will a “modern dynamic pluralist society” necessarily lead to democracy? • Socioeconomic developments as independent and continual variables • Democratization as a dependent and dichotomous (democracy or non-democracy) variable • Can we employ quantitative changes in social structure to explain a qualitative breakthrough in the political system?
Who Wants Democracy? Bourgeoisie in England and France Military in Portuguese Organized workers in Poland Students in South Korea Native opposition groups in Taiwan
Who Wants Democracy? • Bourgeoisie in England and France • Military in Portuguese • Organized workers in Poland • Students in South Korea • Native opposition groups in Taiwan
1.政治转型的观察视角 ·现代化理论（发展理 国民党温和 国民党强硬 论)的解释 派 派 一经济增长（工业化，都 市化)，收入平等，教 育水准提升，通讯发达， 社会多元，文化世俗化， 中产阶级的兴起 党外温和派 党外激进派 政治过程论的解释 (郑南榕) 一朝野互动，内外结合
1.政治转型的观察视角 • 现代化理论（发展理 论）的解释 – 经济增长（工业化，都 市化），收入平等，教 育水准提升，通讯发达， 社会多元，文化世俗化， 中产阶级的兴起 • 政治过程论的解释 – 朝野互动，内外结合 国民党温和 派 国民党强硬 派 党外温和派 党外激进派 （郑南榕）