Increase in Extreme Events “Average"2.極端天氣预報Year and Trends in the U.S.650Deaths26.000Severe6AtlanticBasin1,300 Tornadoes5,000FloodsS15BinLossesThunderstormsHurricanesUsNaturalCatastropheUpdalIncreasing numberofextremeNaturalCatastrophesintheUSA1980-2012MunichRENumberofeventsweather events at increasingNunbetcostto the nation.2012Total30K184eventsAccurateforecastsforextremeeventshaveextendedto4-82041days19Needto taketheseforecaststo121thenextlevelforeffective3decisionsupport2012gicalevanthnught.fedNier)極端事件增加，炙害大。e2b13Mu1
1 1 Forecast day 2. 極端天氣預報 Increase in Extreme Events “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. 6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 650 Deaths $15B in Losses • Increasing number of extreme weather events at increasing cost to the nation. • Accurate forecasts for extreme events have extended to 4-8 days • Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support 極端事件增加，災害擴大。 1
Improved ForecastingForecast skills for extreme events extended out to days4-8 forFloods> Severe weatherHeat/coldwaves> SnowstormsHurricanes> Fire weather2極端事件预報能力提昇，预期限增长
Improved Forecasting Forecast skills for extreme events extended out to days 4-8 for ➢ Severe weather ➢ Fire weather ➢ Snowstorms Floods Heat/cold waves Hurricanes 極端事件預報能力提昇，預報期限增長。 2
3龍興水龍卷
龍捲風與水龍捲 3
A1987年 Saragosa Texas龍卷風過俊
1987年 Saragosa Texas 龍捲風過後 4
HowFarWe'veComeTornado WarningStatistics 1987-201116.014:02712.0Lead Time (Minutes)4.2510.08.06.0ProbabilyofDetectionC3FalseAlamRatio4.0LeadTime (minutes)4252.0E1250.00.000201120062001199619911986Years5龍卷風警報不断改進5
龍捲風警報不斷改進 5 5