五、预警2010091700-24UTC（mm)2010091800-24UTC（mm2010凡那比（FANAPI）204D：09/2025259/179/1809/182010091900-24UTC(mm）2010092000-24UTC(mm)09/1709/1909/16of09/15+20248115125130每送胜风（Ymuo=51.Dm/s）5中皮胜网（Ymx32.7-50.9m/s）6热度脑区（mx17.2-32.6m/s）@热学业费（Vms17.2m/m）A9/199/20R1
1 1 Fanapi (2010) D 9/17 A 9/19 C 9/20 B 9/18 五、預警
Jet Stream 10/30/12 12Z (Blue)Uncertainty in Sandy's trackJetStreamformsapatternlikeaGreekQ(Omega)HlSandy10/30/1212ZH589PossibletracksasSandyinteractedwithdevelopingOmegaBlock-96-85-80-75-105552-100-95060-70..-65.Sandy 路径之不碓定性
Jet Stream 10/30/12 12Z (Blue) Uncertainty in Sandy’s track Sandy 路徑之不確定性 2
3 day Snow Total: Valid Oct 28-Oct 30SnowTotals(Inches)...WESTVIRGINIA...33.0CLAYTON2NNW29.0QUINWOODDAVIS28.028.0FLAT TOP28.0HUTTONSVILLE5WSW26.0CRAIGSVILLE24.0ALEXANDER24.0ALPINELAKE24.0NETTIE24.0TERRAALTA10/29/2012-11/1/2012Total Snowfall3天降零量13-1712--138--42433
3 Snow Totals (Inches) .WEST VIRGINIA. CLAYTON 2 NNW 33.0 QUINWOOD 29.0 DAVIS 28.0 FLAT TOP 28.0 HUTTONSVILLE 5 WSW 28.0 CRAIGSVILLE 26.0 ALEXANDER 24.0 ALPINE LAKE 24.0 NETTIE 24.0 TERRA ALTA 24.0 3 day Snow Total: Valid Oct 28-Oct 30 3天降雪量 3
Ensemblesproved to be aninvaluable30/0000LITcomponent of theforecast process29/1200UTC5-7 days in29/0000TTadvance28/1200UTC28/0000UTC系集预報5-7天Sandy.forecasts327/1200 UTC20121200UTC25OCT预報能力Observed27/0000UTCGFS26/1200UTCGEFSMean26/0000UTCECMWFEnsmnECMWE25/1200ENHC
Ensembles proved to be an invaluable component of the forecast process 5-7 days in advance 系集預報5-7天 預報能力
IncreasingNCEP Global ModelHorizontalResolution Improves HurricaneSandy Track GuidanceModelInitializedat00UTC24October20127-DaySealevelPressure(mb)Forecastvalidat00UTC31October2012HurricanePositionShownEvery24hOperational(T574~27km)Experiment(T1500~13km)Note:Last24h of the highresolutionexperimenttrackbasedon6hmodeloutputHypothesis: Increased horizontal resolution resolves complicated Atlantic blockingpattern, slows simulated hurricane, and allows it to curve toward the East Coast5模式水平解析度增加，改進路径预報°
Operational (T574~ 27km) Experiment (T1500~ 13km) Note: Last 24h of the high resolution experiment track based on 6h model output Hypothesis:Increased horizontal resolution resolves complicated Atlantic blocking pattern, slows simulated hurricane, and allows it to curve toward the East Coast Model Initialized at 00UTC 24 October 2012 7-Day Sea level Pressure (mb) Forecast valid at 00UTC 31 October 2012 Hurricane Position Shown Every 24h Increasing NCEP Global Model Horizontal Resolution Improves Hurricane Sandy Track Guidance 模式水平解析度增加，改進路徑預報。 5