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上海交通大学：《计量经济学》教学资源_案例资料_How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure：Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989

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HOW COMPUTERS HAVE CHANGED THE WAGE STRUCTURE:EVIDENCE FROM MICRODATA,1984-1989* ALAN B.KRUEGER This paper uses Current Population Survey data to examine whether workers who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work.A variety of models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with job-related computer use and earnings.Estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn 10 to 15 percent higher wages.Additionally,the expansion in computer use in the 1980s can account for one-third to one-half of the increase in the rate of return to education. INTRODUCTION Several researchers have documented that significant changes in the structure of wages took place in the United States in the 1980s.1 For example,the rate of return to education has increased markedly since 1979,with the earnings advantage of college graduates relative to high school graduates increasing from 34 percent in 1979 to 56 percent in 1991 [Mishel and Bernstein,1992, Table B1].In addition,wage differentials based on race have expanded while the male-female wage gap has narrowed,and the reward for experience appears to have increased.These changes in the wage structure do not appear to be a result of transitory cyclical factors. In contrast to the near consensus of opinion regarding the scope and direction of changes in the wage structure in the 1980s, the root causes of these changes remain controversial.The two leading hypotheses that have emerged to explain the rapid changes in the wage structure in the 1980s are(1)increased international competition in several industries has hurt the economic position of low-skilled and less-educated workers in the United States (e.g, Murphy and Welch [1991]);(2)rapid,skill-biased technological change in the 1980s caused profound changes in the relative productivity of various types of workers (e.g.,Bound and Johnson *I am grateful to Kainan Tang and Shari Wolkon for providing excellent research assistance,and to Joshua Angrist,David Card,Lawrence Katz,and participants at several seminars for helpful comments.Financial support from the National Science Foundation (SES-9012149)is gratefully acknowledged. 1. Excellent examples of this literature include Blackburn,Bloom,and Free- man [1990],Murphy and Welch [1992],Katz and Revenga[1989],Katz and Murphy [1992],Bound and Johnson [1992],Juhn,Murphy,and Pearce [1989],Levy [1989], Mincer [1991],and Davis and Haltiwanger [1991]. e 1993 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,February 1993

HOW COMPUTERS HAVE CHANGED THE WAGE STRUCTURE: EVIDENCE FROM MICRODATA. 1984-1989* This paper uses Current Population Survey data to examine whether workers who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work. A variety of models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with job-related computer use and earnings. Estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn 10 to 15 percent higher wages. Additionally, the expansion in computer use in the 1980scan account for one-third to one-half of the increase in the rate of return to education. Several researchers have documented that significant changes in the structure of wages took place in the United States in the 1980s.l For example, the rate of return to education has increased markedly since 1979, with the earnings advantage of college graduates relative to high school graduates increasing from 34 percent in 1979 to 56 percent in 1991 [Mishel and Bernstein, 1992, Table Bll. In addition, wage differentials based on race have expanded while the male-female wage gap has narrowed, and the reward for experience appears to have increased. These changes in the wage structure do not appear to be a result of transitory cyclical factors. In contrast to the near consensus of opinion regarding the scope and direction of changes in the wage structure in the 1980s, the root causes of these changes remain controversial. The two leading hypotheses that have emerged to explain the rapid changes in the wage structure in the 1980s are (1)increased international competition in several industries has hurt the economic position of low-skilled and less-educated workers in the United States (e.g., Murphy and Welch [19911); (2) rapid, skill-biased technological change in the 1980s caused profound changes in the relative productivity of various types of workers (e.g., Bound and Johnson *I am grateful to Kainan Tang and Shari Wokon for providing excellent research assistance, and to Joshua Angrist, David Card, Lawrence Katz, and participants at several seminars for helpful comments. Financial support from the National Science Foundation (SES-9012149)is gratefully acknowledged. 1. Excellent examples of this literature include Blackburn, Bloom, and Free- man [19901,Murphy and Welch [19921,Katz and Revenga [19891,Katz andMurphy [19921,Bound and Johnson [19921,Juhn, Murphy, and Pearce [19891,Levy [19891, Mincer [19911,and Davis and Haltiwanger [1991]. e 1993 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, February 1993

34 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS [1992],Mincer [1991],and Allen [1991]).Unfortunately,the evidence that has been used to test these hypotheses has been mainly indirect,relying primarily on aggregate industry-level or time-series data. This paper explores the impact of the"computer revolution" on the wage structure using three microdata sets.The 1980s witnessed unprecedented growth in the amount and type of computer resources used at work,and the cost of computing power fell dramatically over the decade.For example,in 1984 fewer than 10 percent of establishments reported that they had personal computers,while this figure was over 35 percent in 1989 [Statisti- cal Abstract of the United States,1990,p.951].Berndt and Griliches [1990]estimate that the quality-adjusted real price of new microcomputers fell by 28 percent per year between 1982 and 1988.Several authors who have come to view technological change as a promising explanation of changes in the wage structure have highlighted the computer revolution as the prototypical example of such technological change.2 It is important to stress that the effect of technological change on the relative earnings of various categories of workers is theoreti- cally ambiguous.The new computer technology may be a comple- ment or a substitute for skilled workers.3 In the former case the computer revolution is likely to lead to an expansion in earnings differentials based on skill,and in the latter case it is likely to lead to compression in skill-based differentials.This paper focuses on the issue of whether employees who use computers at work earn more as a result of applying their computer skills,and whether the premium for using a computer can account for much of the change in the wage structure.The analysis primarily uses data from Current Population Surveys(CPS)conducted in October of 1984 and 1989.These surveys contain supplemental questions on computer use.Since CPS data spanning this time period were widely used to document the trends in wage differentials noted previously,these data sets are particularly germane.In addition to the CPS,I also examine data from the High School and Beyond 2.For example,Bound and Johnson [1992]write that one explanation "attributes wage structure changes to changes in technology,brought on in large part by the computer revolution."They conclude that this explanation"receives a great deal of support from the data." 3.See Blackburn and Bloom [1988]for an excellent discussion of how technological change can affect earnings differentials.Bartel and Lichtenberg [1987]present cost function estimates for 61 manufacturing industries that suggest that skilled labor is a complement to new technology.For related evidence see Welch [1970]and Griliches [1969]

34 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS [19921, Mincer [19911, and Allen [19911). Unfortunately, the evidence that has been used to test these hypotheses has been mainly indirect, relying primarily on aggregate industry-level or time-series data. This paper explores the impact of the "computer revolution" on the wage structure using three microdata sets. The 1980s witnessed unprecedented growth in the amount and type of computer resources used at work, and the cost of computing power fell dramatically over the decade. For example, in 1984 fewer than 10 percent of establishments reported that they had personal computers, while this figure was over 35 percent in 1989 [Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990, p. 9511. Berndt and Griliches [I9901 estimate that the quality-adjusted real price of new microcomputers fell by 28 percent per year between 1982 and 1988. Several authors who have come to view technological change as a promising explanation of changes in the wage structure have highlighted the computer revolution as the prototypical example of such technological ~hange.~ It is important to stress that the effect of technological change on the relative earnings of various categories of workers is theoretically ambiguous. The new computer technology may be a complement or a substitute for skilled workem3 In the former case the computer revolution is likely to lead to an expansion in earnings differentials based on skill, and in the latter case it is likely to lead to compression in skill-based differentials. This paper focuses on the issue of whether employees who use computers at work earn more as a result of applying their computer skills, and whether the premium for using a computer can account for much of the change in the wage structure. The analysis primarily uses data from Current Population Surveys (CPS) conducted in October of 1984 and 1989. These surveys contain supplemental questions on computer use. Since CPS data spanning this time period were widely used to document the trends in wage differentials noted previously, these data sets are particularly germane. In addition to the CPS, I also examine data from the High School and Beyond 2. For example, Bound and Johnson [I9921 write that one explanation "attributes wage structure changes to changes in technology, brought on in large part by the computer revolution." They conclude that this explanation "receives a great deal of support from the data." 3. See Blackburn and Bloom [I9881 for an excellent discussion of how technological change can affect earnings differentials. Bartel and Lichtenberg [I9871 present cost function estimates for 61 manufacturing industries that suggest that slulled labor is a complement to new technology. For related evidence see Welch [19701 and Griliches [19691

COMPUTERS HAVE CHANGED THE WAGE STRUCTURE 35 Survey(HSBS),which contains information on achievement test scores and family background,as well as on computer use at work The remainder of the paper is organized as follows.Section I presents a brief descriptive analysis of the workers who use computers at work and details trends in computer utilization in the United States in the 1980s.Section II seeks to answer the question: Are workers who use computers at work paid more as a result of their computer skills?Section III addresses issues of possible omitted variable bias.Section IV analyzes the impact of computer use on other wage differentials.Finally,Section V concludes by speculating on the likely future course of the wage structure in light of the new evidence regarding the payoff to computer use. To preview the main results,I find that workers are rewarded more highly if they use computers at work.Indeed,workers who use a computer earn roughly 10-15 percent higher pay,other things being equal.Additionally,because more highly educated workers are more likely to use computers at work,and because computer use expanded tremendously in the 1980s,computer use can account for a substantial share of the increase in the rate of return to education. I.DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS In spite of the widespread belief that computers have funda- mentally altered the work environment,little descriptive informa- tion exists concerning the characteristics of workers who use computers on thejob.Table I summarizes the probability of using a computer at work for several categories of workers in 1984 and 1989.The tabulations are based on October CPS data.These surveys asked respondents whether they have"direct or hands on use of computers"at work.4 Computer use is broadly defined,and includes programming,word processing,E-mail,computer-aided design,etc.For one-quarter of the sample,information on earnings was also collected. Between 1984 and 1989 the percentage of workers who report using a computer at work increased by over 50 percent,from 24.6 to 37.4 percent of the work force.Women,Caucasians,and highly educated workers are more likely to use computers at work than 4.According to the interviewers'instructions,"'Using a computer'refers only to the respondent's 'DIRECT'or 'HANDS ON'use of a computer with typewriter like keyboards."The computer may be a personal computer,minicomputer or mainframe computer.(See CPS Field Representative's Memorandum No.89-20, Section II,October 1989.)

COMPUTERS HAVE CHANGED THE WAGE STRUCTURE 35 Survey (HSBS), which contains information on achievement test scores and family background, as well as on computer use at work. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section I presents a brief descriptive analysis of the workers who use computers at work and details trends in computer utilization in the United States in the 1980s. Section I1 seeks to answer the question: Are workers who use computers at work paid more as a result of their computer skills? Section I11 addresses issues of possible omitted variable bias. Section IV analyzes the impact of computer use on other wage differentials. Finally, Section V concludes by speculating on the likely future course of the wage structure in light of the new evidence regarding the payoff to computer use. To preview the main results, I find that workers are rewarded more highly if they use computers at work. Indeed, workers who use a computer earn roughly 10-15 percent higher pay, other things being equal. Additionally, because more highly educated workers are more likely to use computers at work, and because computer use expanded tremendously in the 1980s, computer use can account for a substantial share of the increase in the rate of return to education. In spite of the widespread belief that computers have fundamentally altered the work environment, little descriptive information exists concerning the characteristics of workers who use computers on the job. Table I summarizes the probability of using a computer at work for several categories of workers in 1984 and 1989. The tabulations are based on October CPS data. These surveys asked respondents whether they have "direct or hands on use of computers" at work.4 Computer use is broadly defined, and includes programming, word processing, E-mail, computer-aided design, etc. For one-quarter of the sample, information on earnings was also collected. Between 1984 and 1989 the percentage of workers who report using a computer at work increased by over 50 percent, from 24.6 to 37.4 percent of the work force. Women, Caucasians, and highly educated workers are more likely to use computers at work than 4. According to the interviewers' instructions, " 'Using a computer' refers only to the respondent's 'DIRECT' or 'HANDS ON' use of a computer with typewriter like keyboards." The computer may be a personal computer, minicomputer or mainframe computer. (See CPS Field Representative's Memorandum No. 89-20, Section 11, October 1989.)

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上海交通大学：《计量经济学》教学资源_案例资料_How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure：Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989