Housing supply in Shanghai 1995-2006 O Under construction, all O Completed, all O Under construction, commodity d Completed, commodity 12000 10000 8000 6000 2000 0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042052006 Fig 3. The supply of residential housings in Shanghai 1995-2006 Unt:10000m) China Urban Land and Housing in 16 the 21st Century, HK Dec 2007
China Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, HK Dec.2007 16 Housing supply in Shanghai 1995-2006 Fig. 3. The supply of residential housings in Shanghai, 1995-2006 (Unit: 10,000 m2 ) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Under construction, all Completed, all Under construction, commodity Completed, commodity
Why Shanghai housing price rises so fast? As a consumption commodity o The market is new: new is more expensive than old; 1998-2005, the total new supply is 17.484 million sqm, roughly 1.6 million new apartments, implying 0.2 million new apartments every year, 4% of total (5 million local) households; rich people got them first Solid increase in income; real growth of per capita disposable income, 147%between 1993-2005 70%between 1997-2005; optimistic expectation of future income growth Strong demand for housing improvement the depressed demand for housing of old generation before the 1998 reform and the compensated demand released when marketization China Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, HK Dec 2007
China Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, HK Dec.2007 17 Why Shanghai housing price rises so fast? As a consumption commodity ◆The market is new: new is more expensive than old; 1998-2005, the total new supply is 17.484 million sqm, roughly 1.6 million new apartments, implying 0.2 million new apartments every year, 4% of total (5 million local) households; rich people got them first. ◆Solid increase in income; real growth of per capita disposable income, 147% between 1993-2005; 70% between 1997-2005; optimistic expectation of future income growth. ◆Strong demand for housing improvement: the depressed demand for housing of old generation before the 1998 reform and the compensated demand released when marketization
lowest10%-10-20%-20-40%-40-60%-米60-80%-80-90%— highest 10 35000 3000 15000 0000 5000 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Fig 6. The income growth of Shanghai residents by income group, 1990-2003 Note: Disposable income per capita in Shanghai 2004-2005, by income category Year2004: bottom20%,7065;20%40%,10664;40%-60%,14149;60%-80%,19371;Top20%,34404 Year2005: bottom20%,7851;20%-40%,1180040%60%,15668;60%-80%,21313;Top20%,37722 China Urban Land and Housing in 18 the 21st Century, HK Dec 2007
China Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, HK Dec.2007 18 Fig.6. The income growth of Shanghai residents by income group, 1990-2003 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Disposable income per capita, RMB lowest 10% 10-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-90% highest 10% Note: Disposable income per capita in Shanghai 2004-2005, by income category Year 2004: bottom 20%, 7065; 20%-40%, 10664; 40%-60%, 14149; 60%-80%, 19371; Top 20%, 34404; Year 2005: bottom 20%, 7851; 20%-40%, 11800; 40%-60%, 15668; 60%-80%, 21313; Top 20%, 37722