Socioeconomic Approach ·Strengths -theoretical elegance methodological measurability -empirical verifiability ·Veakness the exact correlation between socioeconomic development and democratization The Predicting power of per capita GDP Taiwan,SK in 1970s,and Singapore
Socioeconomic Approach • Strengths – theoretical elegance – methodological measurability – empirical verifiability • Weakness – the exact correlation between socioeconomic development and democratization • The Predicting power of per capita GDP • Taiwan, SK in 1970s, and Singapore
Methodological Problem? ·Wila“modern dynamic pluralist society" necessarily lead to democracy? Socioeconomic developments as independent and continual variables Democratization as a dependent and dichotomous(democracy or non-democracy) variable Can we employ quantitative changes in social structure to explain a qualitative breakthrough in the political system?
Methodological Problem? • Will a “modern dynamic pluralist society” necessarily lead to democracy? • Socioeconomic developments as independent and continual variables • Democratization as a dependent and dichotomous (democracy or non-democracy) variable • Can we employ quantitative changes in social structure to explain a qualitative breakthrough in the political system?
Who Wants Democracy? Bourgeoisie in England and France Military in Portuguese Organized workers in Poland Students in South Korea Native opposition groups in Taiwan Strategic choices of different actors
Who Wants Democracy? • Bourgeoisie in England and France • Military in Portuguese • Organized workers in Poland • Students in South Korea • Native opposition groups in Taiwan • Strategic choices of different actors
Three typologies of democratic transition democratic transformation initiated by the leading elite on the top (Taiwan?) -Transaction (Share Mainwaring) democratic replacement initiated by civil society (collapse,Share Mainwaring) democratic transplacement contributed by both the leading elite and civil society
Three typologies of democratic transition • democratic transformation initiated by the leading elite on the top (Taiwan?) –Transaction (Share & Mainwaring) • democratic replacement initiated by civil society (collapse, Share & Mainwaring) • democratic transplacement contributed by both the leading elite and civil society
Institution as an Independent Variable Institutional change Institutional modification Old institution Political >Institution stiffness actor Structural change
Institution as an Independent Variable Structural change Old institution Political actor Institutional change Institutional modification Institution stiffness