American Political Science Review (2018)112.4.860-873 doi:10.1017/S0003055418000473 American Political Science Association 2018 On the Limits of Officials'Ability to Change Citizens'Priorities: A Field Experiment in Local Politics DANIEL M.BUTLER University of California,San Diego HANS J.G.HASSELL Florida State University e test whether politicians'communications shape their supporters'policy priorities by conduct- ing a field experiment in collaboration with several local elected officials.In the experiment, the officials sent out email messages to the constituents on their distribution lists.Half the con- stituents received messages where the official advocated for the priority of a given issue,while the other half received a placebo email.We surveyed the constituents one to two months before the message went out and again the week after the official sent the message.The experiment shows that politicians did not change citizens'priorities in the desired direction.Moreover,citizens who received a message where the official indicated the issue was a priority were not more likely to act when invited to sign a petition on the issue.Elected officials'ability to shape the priorities of the politically active citizens with whom they regularly communicate is limited and can even be self-defeating. nformation is a tool that has the potential to affect (Oliver and Ha 2007:Rugh and Trounstine 2011: opinion and mobilize citizens to action (Foos and Tausanovitch and Warshaw 2014).At the local level, de Rooij 2017a).We test whether local elected offi- many of the political questions are not whether an cials can change the political agendas and issue priori- action should be taken,but whether certain issues ties of the people with whom they regularly communi- should be prioritized (Erie,Kogan,and MacKenzie cate. 2011;Franklin and Ebdon 2004;Guo and Neshkova We study the ability of government officials to in- 2013).For example,given a list of infrastructure fluence citizens'issue priorities because governments projects,many constituents would support action have limited resources.Governments cannot deal with on all the necessary improvements provided there all issues at the same time:they must identify which were sufficient resources.However.given a limited issues will receive the highest priority.The ability to budget,and limited time resources,constituents might affect citizens'priorities can thus have significant im- prioritize certain action items over others. plications for the allocation of political power.As Studies of agenda setting in other contexts have Schattschneider(1960)noted,the ability to define po- found that political elites can drive the political agenda litical priorities and the alternatives changes the na- and priorities of the general public.However,these ture of political conflict and is the"prime instrument studies have almost exclusively focused on the ability of power"(73).Changing citizen priorities and the of nonelected political elites to change citizens'prior- agenda changes the political lines of division within so- ities and the effect that these changes have on poli- ciety and can reallocate power among political actors. tics(e.g.,Iyengar and Kinder 1987;King,Schneer,and Citizens'priorities and political agendas are es- White 2017;McComb and Shaw 1972).Scholars have 115.5010 pecially important to understanding local politics not studied elected officials'ability to shape their con- stituents'priorities. There are both arguments that public officials can Daniel M.Butler is an Associate Professor,University of California, shape the political agenda through their communica- San Diego,Social Sciences Building,9500 Gilman Drive #0521,La tions with constituents and reasons to believe that they Jolla.CA 92093-0521 (daniel.butler@gmail.com). Hans J.G.Hassell is an Assistant Professor,Florida State Univer. cannot.On one hand,there are reasons that commu- sity,Department of Political Science,531 Bellamy Building,Tallahas- nication by elected officials might shape citizens'pri- see,FL 32306 (hans.hassell@gmail.com). orities.Previous studies have found that other political An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Urban Po- elites such as the media and interest groups shape the litical Economy Conference at Vanderbilt University in March 2017 general public's priorities (Iyengar and Kinder 1987; We thank Marc Meredith and other conference participants for com- ments.Replication files are available at the American Political Sci. King,Schneer,and White 2017;McComb and Shaw ence Review Dataverse:https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KTCXTE 1972).What these actors talk about and highlight of- ten become the general public'priorities and set the Received:May 15,2017:revised:January 16,2018:accepted:July 5. 2018.First published online:September 4,2018. agenda for political debate.Likewise,communication by other political elites,particularly the media or in- 1 Schattschneider(1960)identifies two ways of changing the balance terest groups,has a strong effect on citizens'priorities of power:First,by defining the political priorities and,second,by enlarging or reducing the scope of conflict and the participants in and can propel citizens to action (Gerber,Karlan,and that conflict.Sarah Anzia's(2014)and Justin de Benedictis-Kessner's Bergan 2009).There is also some evidence that elite (2018)work on changing the timing of elections to correspond with communication can sometimes shape public opinion national elections are examples of the few studies we are aware of (e.g.,Broockman and Butler 2016).2 that examine the ability of local public officials to enlarge or reduce the scope of conflict.While we fully believe that more research is 士 needed to understand the ability or inability of public officials to However,changing a mind over a single issue (that is perhaps not draw in new participants into the political conflict,in this paper we well understood)is different than changing a citizen's issue priorities focus on their ability to change their constituents'political priorities and their preferred political agenda. 860
American Political Science Review (2018) 112, 4, 860–873 doi:10.1017/S0003055418000473 © American Political Science Association 2018 On the Limits of Officials’ Ability to Change Citizens’ Priorities: A Field Experiment in Local Politics DANIEL M. BUTLER University of California, San Diego HANS J.G. HASSELL Florida State University We test whether politicians’ communications shape their supporters’ policy priorities by conducting a field experiment in collaboration with several local elected officials. In the experiment, the officials sent out email messages to the constituents on their distribution lists. Half the constituents received messages where the official advocated for the priority of a given issue, while the other half received a placebo email. We surveyed the constituents one to two months before the message went out and again the week after the official sent the message. The experiment shows that politicians did not change citizens’ priorities in the desired direction. Moreover, citizens who received a message where the official indicated the issue was a priority were not more likely to act when invited to sign a petition on the issue. Elected officials’ ability to shape the priorities of the politically active citizens with whom they regularly communicate is limited and can even be self-defeating. I nformation is a tool that has the potential to affect opinion and mobilize citizens to action (Foos and de Rooij 2017a).We test whether local elected officials can change the political agendas and issue priorities of the people with whom they regularly communicate. We study the ability of government officials to influence citizens’ issue priorities because governments have limited resources. Governments cannot deal with all issues at the same time; they must identify which issues will receive the highest priority. The ability to affect citizens’ priorities can thus have significant implications for the allocation of political power. As Schattschneider (1960) noted, the ability to define political priorities and the alternatives changes the nature of political conflict and is the “prime instrument of power” (73).1 Changing citizen priorities and the agenda changes the political lines of division within society and can reallocate power among political actors. Citizens’ priorities and political agendas are especially important to understanding local politics Daniel M. Butler is an Associate Professor, University of California, San Diego, Social Sciences Building, 9500 Gilman Drive #0521, La Jolla, CA 92093-0521 (daniel.butler@gmail.com). Hans J.G. Hassell is an Assistant Professor, Florida State University, Department of Political Science, 531 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (hans.hassell@gmail.com). An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Urban Political Economy Conference at Vanderbilt University in March 2017. We thank Marc Meredith and other conference participants for comments. Replication files are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KTCXTE. Received: May 15, 2017; revised: January 16, 2018; accepted: July 5, 2018. First published online: September 4, 2018. 1 Schattschneider (1960) identifies two ways of changing the balance of power: First, by defining the political priorities and, second, by enlarging or reducing the scope of conflict and the participants in that conflict. Sarah Anzia’s (2014) and Justin de Benedictis-Kessner’s (2018) work on changing the timing of elections to correspond with national elections are examples of the few studies we are aware of that examine the ability of local public officials to enlarge or reduce the scope of conflict. While we fully believe that more research is needed to understand the ability or inability of public officials to draw in new participants into the political conflict, in this paper we focus on their ability to change their constituents’ political priorities. (Oliver and Ha 2007; Rugh and Trounstine 2011; Tausanovitch and Warshaw 2014). At the local level, many of the political questions are not whether an action should be taken, but whether certain issues should be prioritized (Erie, Kogan, and MacKenzie 2011; Franklin and Ebdon 2004; Guo and Neshkova 2013). For example, given a list of infrastructure projects, many constituents would support action on all the necessary improvements provided there were sufficient resources. However, given a limited budget, and limited time resources, constituents might prioritize certain action items over others. Studies of agenda setting in other contexts have found that political elites can drive the political agenda and priorities of the general public. However, these studies have almost exclusively focused on the ability of nonelected political elites to change citizens’ priorities and the effect that these changes have on politics (e.g., Iyengar and Kinder 1987; King, Schneer, and White 2017; McComb and Shaw 1972). Scholars have not studied elected officials’ ability to shape their constituents’ priorities. There are both arguments that public officials can shape the political agenda through their communications with constituents and reasons to believe that they cannot. On one hand, there are reasons that communication by elected officials might shape citizens’ priorities. Previous studies have found that other political elites such as the media and interest groups shape the general public’s priorities (Iyengar and Kinder 1987; King, Schneer, and White 2017; McComb and Shaw 1972). What these actors talk about and highlight often become the general public’ priorities and set the agenda for political debate. Likewise, communication by other political elites, particularly the media or interest groups, has a strong effect on citizens’ priorities and can propel citizens to action (Gerber, Karlan, and Bergan 2009). There is also some evidence that elite communication can sometimes shape public opinion (e.g., Broockman and Butler 2016).2 2 However, changing a mind over a single issue (that is perhaps not well understood) is different than changing a citizen’s issue priorities and their preferred political agenda. 860 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. Shanghai JiaoTong University, on 26 Oct 2018 at 03:53:05, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000473
On the Limits of Officials'Ability to Change Citizens'Priorities On the other hand.there are also reasons to believe reduce the participation that public officials want from that public officials'communication with constituents constituents (Levine 2015). may not change their priorities.Agenda setting by We study how elected officials'messages influence elected officials may work differently than agenda set- constituents'priorities and actions by collaborating ting by other elites who are not necessarily in a position with elected officials in four different municipalities to to directly affect policy and whose messages reach a dif- conduct a field experiment.In the experiment,the part- ferent audience.One reason elite communication may nering officials sent out email messages to constituents not affect constituent priorities and action is that pub on their distribution lists.We had the partnering of- lic officials communicate most often with constituents ficials send messages to individuals who already sup- who likely already hold well formulated opinions.The ported the issue but who had indicated that the issue citizens that public officials can most easily reach often was lower on the political agenda.We surveyed these have intentionally opted to receive updates and infor- individuals one to two months before the message went mation from their representatives.They are likely to out and again the week after the official sent the mes- already be well-informed.People who have well formu- sage to test how these citizens responded to the mes- lated opinions and who traditionally follow politics are sage from their city official. less likely to be affected by the messages they receive The key aspect of the experiment is that half of the (Arceneaux and Johnson 2013:Krosnick 1990:Zaller residents received messages where the official advo- 1992).3 These individuals are also likely to be strong cated that a given issue should be placed higher on policy demanders whose principles and priorities are the political agenda,while the other half received a harder to change(Bawn et al.2012;Fenno 1978;Kros- placebo email (i.e.,an email that did not advocate for nick 1990:Masket 2009).In short,previous research the importance of an issue but was otherwise similar) showing that politicians can change constituents'opin- We included the placebo email (as opposed to a control ions may not extend to the influence of public officials group that received nothing)to carry out a placebo de- on the coalitions to which they have the most direct sign (Nickerson 2005).We could carry out a placebo 4r元 access. design because we tracked who opened the emails that In addition,even if public officials can change the the official sent.This allows us to compare the peo- political agendas of those they communicate with,we ple who were actually treated (because they opened have reason to doubt that these changes have any up the email)to the individuals in the placebo control meaningful influence on political actions.Holding group who also opened up their email.To be clear,our public opinions and using those public opinions in the sample is not representative of voters.We intentionally ballot booth are not the only way that citizens influence study the effect of officials'communication on those political outcomes(Bergan 2009:Kam and Zechmeis with whom they most frequently communicate. ter 2013).Politicians must often rely on the willingness Our experiment finds that public officials'messages of individuals or groups to become involved on a par- did not,on average,change the political agenda and ticular issue to achieve their policy goals (Schlozman priorities of the citizens they contacted.If anything. 1984).Given the reliance of political elites on the in the public officials'messaging decreased the likelihood volvement of other groups,can public officials'efforts that individuals thought the issue should be a priority to change priorities affect constituents'actions in sup- and caused citizens to be less likely to act when invited port of a policy priority? to sign a petition on the issue.5 In some cases,public officials'communication about their priorities may actually decrease the willingness THE EFFECTS OF ELECTED OFFICIAL of individuals to participate through self-undermining rhetoric(Levine 2015;Levine and Kline 2017).In gen- COMMUNICATION ON POLITICAL AGENDAS eral,actions motivated by purposive goals may actually There are competing expectations about elected of- be depressed by information about the actions that oth- ficials'ability to change their constituents'priorities. ers have taken(Hassell and Wyler 2018:Mutz 1995).In On one hand,many individuals'opinions appear to formation about officials'actions and priorities might be malleable.Rather than citizens using their policy be particularly impactful because officials are able to opinions to influence representatives,many analyses do something about the issue.If individuals recognize conclude that politicians,especially those who share that a public official with political influence is inter- a party identity,shape voters'opinions (Broockman ested in the agenda item,an individual may rational- and Butler 2016;Bullock 2011).Previous research on 四 ize that his or her action is not necessary because the politicians'ability to shape opinion has largely focused issue will be handled by the government.Thus,com on the constituent's positions,yet the quality of rep- munication from public officials about their issue pri- resentation also depends on how well constituents' orities may contain self-undermining components that While,as we note below,our study is slightly underpowered,it pro- These individuals may actually be more likely to have a negative vides strong evidence against the idea that public officials can change reaction to persuasive information and to be more likely to engage their constituents'priorities.While the lack of power reduces our in motivated reasoning (Brehm and Brehm 1981;Redlawsk 2002) ability to draw stronger conclusions about the backlash,our findings 士 Moreover,political outcomes,especially outcomes at the local are consistent with other research that has found a self-undermining level,are not determined solely on the basis of public opinion(Anzia effect of certain types of communication from political elites (Levine and Meeks 2016;Oliver 2012;Peterson 1981). 2015). 861
On the Limits of Officials’ Ability to Change Citizens’ Priorities On the other hand, there are also reasons to believe that public officials’ communication with constituents may not change their priorities. Agenda setting by elected officials may work differently than agenda setting by other elites who are not necessarily in a position to directly affect policy and whose messages reach a different audience. One reason elite communication may not affect constituent priorities and action is that public officials communicate most often with constituents who likely already hold well formulated opinions. The citizens that public officials can most easily reach often have intentionally opted to receive updates and information from their representatives. They are likely to already be well-informed.People who have well formulated opinions and who traditionally follow politics are less likely to be affected by the messages they receive (Arceneaux and Johnson 2013; Krosnick 1990; Zaller 1992).3 These individuals are also likely to be strong policy demanders whose principles and priorities are harder to change (Bawn et al. 2012; Fenno 1978; Krosnick 1990; Masket 2009). In short, previous research showing that politicians can change constituents’ opinions may not extend to the influence of public officials on the coalitions to which they have the most direct access. In addition, even if public officials can change the political agendas of those they communicate with, we have reason to doubt that these changes have any meaningful influence on political actions.4 Holding public opinions and using those public opinions in the ballot booth are not the only way that citizens influence political outcomes (Bergan 2009; Kam and Zechmeister 2013). Politicians must often rely on the willingness of individuals or groups to become involved on a particular issue to achieve their policy goals (Schlozman 1984). Given the reliance of political elites on the involvement of other groups, can public officials’ efforts to change priorities affect constituents’ actions in support of a policy priority? In some cases, public officials’ communication about their priorities may actually decrease the willingness of individuals to participate through self-undermining rhetoric (Levine 2015; Levine and Kline 2017). In general, actions motivated by purposive goals may actually be depressed by information about the actions that others have taken (Hassell and Wyler 2018;Mutz 1995). Information about officials’ actions and priorities might be particularly impactful because officials are able to do something about the issue. If individuals recognize that a public official with political influence is interested in the agenda item, an individual may rationalize that his or her action is not necessary because the issue will be handled by the government. Thus, communication from public officials about their issue priorities may contain self-undermining components that 3 These individuals may actually be more likely to have a negative reaction to persuasive information and to be more likely to engage in motivated reasoning (Brehm and Brehm 1981; Redlawsk 2002) 4 Moreover, political outcomes, especially outcomes at the local level, are not determined solely on the basis of public opinion (Anzia and Meeks 2016; Oliver 2012; Peterson 1981). reduce the participation that public officials want from constituents (Levine 2015). We study how elected officials’ messages influence constituents’ priorities and actions by collaborating with elected officials in four different municipalities to conduct a field experiment. In the experiment, the partnering officials sent out email messages to constituents on their distribution lists. We had the partnering officials send messages to individuals who already supported the issue but who had indicated that the issue was lower on the political agenda. We surveyed these individuals one to two months before the message went out and again the week after the official sent the message to test how these citizens responded to the message from their city official. The key aspect of the experiment is that half of the residents received messages where the official advocated that a given issue should be placed higher on the political agenda, while the other half received a placebo email (i.e., an email that did not advocate for the importance of an issue but was otherwise similar). We included the placebo email (as opposed to a control group that received nothing) to carry out a placebo design (Nickerson 2005). We could carry out a placebo design because we tracked who opened the emails that the official sent. This allows us to compare the people who were actually treated (because they opened up the email) to the individuals in the placebo control group who also opened up their email. To be clear, our sample is not representative of voters.We intentionally study the effect of officials’ communication on those with whom they most frequently communicate. Our experiment finds that public officials’ messages did not, on average, change the political agenda and priorities of the citizens they contacted. If anything, the public officials’ messaging decreased the likelihood that individuals thought the issue should be a priority and caused citizens to be less likely to act when invited to sign a petition on the issue.5 THE EFFECTS OF ELECTED OFFICIAL COMMUNICATION ON POLITICAL AGENDAS There are competing expectations about elected officials’ ability to change their constituents’ priorities. On one hand, many individuals’ opinions appear to be malleable. Rather than citizens using their policy opinions to influence representatives, many analyses conclude that politicians, especially those who share a party identity, shape voters’ opinions (Broockman and Butler 2016; Bullock 2011). Previous research on politicians’ ability to shape opinion has largely focused on the constituent’s positions, yet the quality of representation also depends on how well constituents’ 5 While, as we note below, our study is slightly underpowered, it provides strong evidence against the idea that public officials can change their constituents’ priorities. While the lack of power reduces our ability to draw stronger conclusions about the backlash, our findings are consistent with other research that has found a self-undermining effect of certain types of communication from political elites (Levine 2015). 861 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. 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Daniel M.Butler and Hans J.G.Hassell priorities are reflected in governments'priorities icy success often relies on individuals'willingness to (Druckman and Jacobs 2015). take political action in support of the cause.Political In addition.numerous studies have shown that non- leadership requires successfully encouraging others to elected political actors,specifically the media and in- act on a specific agenda.For these reasons,we also terest groups,can affect citizens'priorities and increase look at the effect of officials'communication on con- the salience of issues on the public agenda (Iyengar and stituents'actions. Kinder 1987:King.Schneer.and White 2017:Kiousis A stated priority is not the same as a public action. and McCombs 2004;McComb and Shaw 1972) and opinions often do not conform with actions taken On the other hand,prior studies have focused on either privately (Berinsky 2004)or publicly (LaPiere political elites'ability to change the opinions of the 1934).Studies have shown that individuals are willing general public,rather than the politically active con- to lie or decline to respond when they know their views stituents that officials reach with their messaging. are not perceived as socially acceptable(Berinsky 1999, Although the general public is largely inattentive to po- 2004:Schuman and Presser 1980:Vogel and Ardoin litical affairs,and thus susceptible to persuasion,politi- 2008).It is possible that pressure from politicians may cally involved constituents are more likely to be knowl- change publicly stated priorities without changing un- edgeable about politics and to have priorities that are derlying motivations to participate and engage on an harder to move (Arceneaux and Johnson 2013:Kros- issue. nick 1990;Zaller 1992).While previous studies have Furthermore,communication from public officials shown that even the most informed voters are still in- might be self-undermining by encouraging compla- 元 fluenced by elite communication on single issues,the cency as constituents perceive that the issue is already effect "is swamped by the average absolute effect of being handled (Levine 2015).There is some evidence exposing subjects to details about...policy"(Bullock that descriptions of others taking action or past success 2011,500).The effect may be even further reduced reduces participation relative to information that com- when trying to change priorities (rather than opin- municates a lack of action on the issue (Hassell and ions)that are often already informed by a wealth of Wyler 2018;Levine and Kam 2017).7 knowledge.Thus,while there is evidence that political elites can change voters'opinions,these previous stud- ies have not examined constituents'priorities and have RESEARCH DESIGN not focused on those individuals that politicians typi- We test local officials'ability to affect issue salience and cally reach with their messaging. to encourage participation on an issue by conducting Moreover,there is evidence that attempts to per- embedded field experiments(Foos and John 2018;Foos suade knowledgeable individuals with well-formed and de Rooij 2017b)in collaboration with city officials opinions may prompt a negative backlash (Brehm from four cities across the United States.s The officials 1966;Brehm and Brehm 1981).5 This theory of psy- who worked with us on the study had earlier expressed chological reactance holds that individuals react nega- interest in helping with a research project after they tively to persuasive information when individuals per- had taken a survey administered by one of the authors.? ceive their self-determination about what priorities to Table 1 provides information about the officials and hold and what actions to take being threatened.This the cities they serve in.Two of the officials came from S5.501g perception of threat to self-determination is likely to relatively small towns(with populations under 20,000), be stronger among those with well-formulated opin- another from a mid-sized suburb with a population of ions and priorities.When others try to persuade these about 30,000,and the last a city of over 100,000 that is individuals,this theory holds that they often embrace a key part of a metropolitan area in the Midwest.The the attitude threatened by the attempt at persuasion officials also were diverse in other ways (see Table 1). (Brehm 1966).As such,attempts by public officials to For example,two of the officials were women.while encourage constituents with higher levels of knowl- edge to place more priority on certain issues may cause effects on opinion and behavior that are opposite to 7 Levine and Kam(2017)find that messages that hint at future ac- what was intended (Dillard and Shen 2005:Ringold tion,as opposed to retrospective action,are not self-undermining 2002) However,the messages they test imply the need for support to ac- complish those goals and they come from interest groups rather than elected officials.Elected officials,unlike interest groups,can directly CHANGING PRIORITIES AND take action to change policies.Because public officials are differ eys ENCOURAGING POLITICAL ACTION ent from other political elites,we might expect constituents to react differently to communication from officials than to communication Changing the political agenda alone does not remove rom other political actors many of the barriers to policy outcomes.Achieving pol- The field experiments were approved by the IRB at Washington University in St.Louis. 9 They were around 50 officials who had taken the earlier survey and 6 Recent work by Guess and Coppock (2016)finds that there is no expressed interest in helping with academic research generally (with. backlash among the general public when they are presented with fac- out expressing interest in a specific project).For this experiment,we tual information about a topic.However,their experiments (1)look invited all of them to collaborate with us.We first made the invita- at a general population rather than a sample of politically knowl- tions via email and talked by phone with those who expressed some edgeable and interested individuals and(2)present factual informa- initial interest.Ultimately,only these four officials could collaborate tion rather than information from a source that may have ulterior A few others were no longer serving and the majority who responded motives (such as a publicly elected official). said they were too busy to help at the time. 862
Daniel M. Butler and Hans J.G. Hassell priorities are reflected in governments’ priorities (Druckman and Jacobs 2015). In addition, numerous studies have shown that nonelected political actors, specifically the media and interest groups, can affect citizens’ priorities and increase the salience of issues on the public agenda (Iyengar and Kinder 1987; King, Schneer, and White 2017; Kiousis and McCombs 2004; McComb and Shaw 1972) On the other hand, prior studies have focused on political elites’ ability to change the opinions of the general public, rather than the politically active constituents that officials reach with their messaging. Although the general public is largely inattentive to political affairs, and thus susceptible to persuasion, politically involved constituents are more likely to be knowledgeable about politics and to have priorities that are harder to move (Arceneaux and Johnson 2013; Krosnick 1990; Zaller 1992). While previous studies have shown that even the most informed voters are still influenced by elite communication on single issues, the effect “is swamped by the average absolute effect of exposing subjects to details about…policy” (Bullock 2011, 500). The effect may be even further reduced when trying to change priorities (rather than opinions) that are often already informed by a wealth of knowledge. Thus, while there is evidence that political elites can change voters’ opinions, these previous studies have not examined constituents’ priorities and have not focused on those individuals that politicians typically reach with their messaging. Moreover, there is evidence that attempts to persuade knowledgeable individuals with well-formed opinions may prompt a negative backlash (Brehm 1966; Brehm and Brehm 1981).6 This theory of psychological reactance holds that individuals react negatively to persuasive information when individuals perceive their self-determination about what priorities to hold and what actions to take being threatened. This perception of threat to self-determination is likely to be stronger among those with well-formulated opinions and priorities. When others try to persuade these individuals, this theory holds that they often embrace the attitude threatened by the attempt at persuasion (Brehm 1966). As such, attempts by public officials to encourage constituents with higher levels of knowledge to place more priority on certain issues may cause effects on opinion and behavior that are opposite to what was intended (Dillard and Shen 2005; Ringold 2002). CHANGING PRIORITIES AND ENCOURAGING POLITICAL ACTION Changing the political agenda alone does not remove many of the barriers to policy outcomes.Achieving pol- 6 Recent work by Guess and Coppock (2016) finds that there is no backlash among the general public when they are presented with factual information about a topic. However, their experiments (1) look at a general population rather than a sample of politically knowledgeable and interested individuals and (2) present factual information rather than information from a source that may have ulterior motives (such as a publicly elected official). icy success often relies on individuals’ willingness to take political action in support of the cause. Political leadership requires successfully encouraging others to act on a specific agenda. For these reasons, we also look at the effect of officials’ communication on constituents’ actions. A stated priority is not the same as a public action, and opinions often do not conform with actions taken either privately (Berinsky 2004) or publicly (LaPiere 1934). Studies have shown that individuals are willing to lie or decline to respond when they know their views are not perceived as socially acceptable (Berinsky 1999, 2004; Schuman and Presser 1980; Vogel and Ardoin 2008). It is possible that pressure from politicians may change publicly stated priorities without changing underlying motivations to participate and engage on an issue. Furthermore, communication from public officials might be self-undermining by encouraging complacency as constituents perceive that the issue is already being handled (Levine 2015). There is some evidence that descriptions of others taking action or past success reduces participation relative to information that communicates a lack of action on the issue (Hassell and Wyler 2018; Levine and Kam 2017).7 RESEARCH DESIGN We test local officials’ ability to affect issue salience and to encourage participation on an issue by conducting embedded field experiments (Foos and John 2018;Foos and de Rooij 2017b) in collaboration with city officials from four cities across the United States.8 The officials who worked with us on the study had earlier expressed interest in helping with a research project after they had taken a survey administered by one of the authors.9 Table 1 provides information about the officials and the cities they serve in. Two of the officials came from relatively small towns (with populations under 20,000), another from a mid-sized suburb with a population of about 30,000, and the last a city of over 100,000 that is a key part of a metropolitan area in the Midwest. The officials also were diverse in other ways (see Table 1). For example, two of the officials were women, while 7 Levine and Kam (2017) find that messages that hint at future action, as opposed to retrospective action, are not self-undermining. However, the messages they test imply the need for support to accomplish those goals and they come from interest groups rather than elected officials. Elected officials, unlike interest groups, can directly take action to change policies. Because public officials are different from other political elites, we might expect constituents to react differently to communication from officials than to communication from other political actors. 8 The field experiments were approved by the IRB at Washington University in St. Louis. 9 They were around 50 officials who had taken the earlier survey and expressed interest in helping with academic research generally (without expressing interest in a specific project). For this experiment, we invited all of them to collaborate with us. We first made the invitations via email and talked by phone with those who expressed some initial interest. Ultimately, only these four officials could collaborate. A few others were no longer serving and the majority who responded said they were too busy to help at the time. 862 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. 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On the Limits of Officials'Ability to Change Citizens'Priorities TABLE 1. Partnering Officials # Location Population Position Gender Constituents in Study Northeast ≈15K Councilor Female 9 South ~7K Mayor Female South 30K Councilor Male 20 Midwest 125K Councilor Male TABLE 2. Issues City 1 City 2 City 3 City 4 Water quality ·Natural trails ·Term limits ·Bike lanes ·Community center ·Rec facilities ·Referenda ·Cleaning up the city ·Expand sewer system ·More special events Benefits for city officials ·Street repair Impact fees for ·Developing a common ·City credit card use Economic development development use area ·Nepotism laws Standards for private Off-shore oil drilling Ethical guidelines for roads city officials 4r元 two were men.One official was the mayor,while the I believe the city should consider this and it should other three were city councilors. be a medium priority for [name of city/town]. The collaborative experiments were carried out dur- I believe the city should consider this and it should ing the spring and summer of 2016.We designed and be a high priority for name of city/town. implemented these experiments to maximize external validity.For example,we had the officials decide what The text of the surveys is provided in Section SI.2 issues they would write about and we had them draft of the Supplementary Material.Because we are inter- the text of the emails.We also had them contact the ested in the ability of officials to affect their supporters' constituents using email because that is how they nor- priorities,we recruited citizens for the study from the mally contacted the constituents in the study.We car- participating officials'email distribution lists.The sur- ried out the study by taking the following steps(which vey recruitment email came from us as researchers and are summarized in Figure 1): explained that we were studying local policy priorities The full text of the invitation to take the survey is pro- vided in SI.1 of the Supplementary Material. 55.501g 1.Identify the issues.We asked each partnering official to identify four to six issues for which they were in terested in building support.We asked them to pick 3.Identifying the Sampling Frame.We used two cri- concrete goals that were relevant for their city and teria to determine which individuals would be in- for which they were willing to write about in com- cluded in the study.First,at the end of the survey we munications with citizens.Table 2 gives an overview asked participants if they would be willing to take of the issues that the officials chose for this study. a follow-up survey.Our study only includes the par- The officials also drafted the text of the issue used ticipants who answered that they would be willing to in the email messages they sent.We had the officials take a follow-up survey.Second,we limited the sam- choose the topics and draft the letter to increase the pling frame to those individuals who agreed with the external validity of the study.Our study looks at the official on an issue but did not think that the issue in effect of the types of messages that elected officials question should be a high priority for the city.10 For would send. 10 One concern might be that individuals who indicated that an is 2.Baseline Surveys.We conducted online surveys sue should be a low or medium priority for the city were actually of expressing weak opposition.This does not seem to be the case as a residents in each city that asked them about their substantial portion of these individuals were willing to sign a peti- positions on the issues that the official had identified. tion on the issue.On the post-treatment survey,14%of those who For each issue,citizens chose one of four responses: expressed the issue should not be a priority for the city were willing to sign the petition.If we include those who expressed that it was a medium priority for the city,that number rises to 28%.The will- I do not support doing this and it should not be a ingness of these individuals to sign a petition on an issue that was /:sony priority for [name of city/town]. not a high priority,or even a medium priority,suggests that this was I believe the city should consider this but it should not something they opposed.Moreover,rerunning the analyses be- low including only those who expressed that the issue was a medium not be a priority for name of city/town. priority for the city does not change the substantive results. 863
On the Limits of Officials’ Ability to Change Citizens’ Priorities TABLE 1. Partnering Officials # Location Population Position Gender Constituents in Study 1 Northeast ∼ 15K Councilor Female 89 2 South ∼ 7K Mayor Female 68 3 South ∼ 30K Councilor Male 20 4 Midwest ∼ 125K Councilor Male 67 TABLE 2. Issues City 1 City 2 City 3 City 4 • Water quality • Community center • Expand sewer system • Impact fees for development • Standards for private roads • Natural trails • Rec facilities • More special events • Developing a common use area • Off-shore oil drilling • Term limits • Referenda • Benefits for city officials • City credit card use • Nepotism laws • Ethical guidelines for city officials • Bike lanes • Cleaning up the city • Street repair • Economic development two were men. One official was the mayor, while the other three were city councilors. The collaborative experiments were carried out during the spring and summer of 2016. We designed and implemented these experiments to maximize external validity. For example, we had the officials decide what issues they would write about and we had them draft the text of the emails. We also had them contact the constituents using email because that is how they normally contacted the constituents in the study. We carried out the study by taking the following steps (which are summarized in Figure 1): 1. Identify the issues. We asked each partnering official to identify four to six issues for which they were interested in building support. We asked them to pick concrete goals that were relevant for their city and for which they were willing to write about in communications with citizens. Table 2 gives an overview of the issues that the officials chose for this study. The officials also drafted the text of the issue used in the email messages they sent. We had the officials choose the topics and draft the letter to increase the external validity of the study. Our study looks at the effect of the types of messages that elected officials would send. 2. Baseline Surveys. We conducted online surveys of residents in each city that asked them about their positions on the issues that the official had identified. For each issue, citizens chose one of four responses: I do not support doing this and it should not be a priority for [name of city/town]. I believe the city should consider this but it should not be a priority for [name of city/town]. I believe the city should consider this and it should be a medium priority for [name of city/town]. I believe the city should consider this and it should be a high priority for [name of city/town]. The text of the surveys is provided in Section SI.2 of the Supplementary Material. Because we are interested in the ability of officials to affect their supporters’ priorities, we recruited citizens for the study from the participating officials’ email distribution lists. The survey recruitment email came from us as researchers and explained that we were studying local policy priorities. The full text of the invitation to take the survey is provided in SI.1 of the Supplementary Material. 3. Identifying the Sampling Frame. We used two criteria to determine which individuals would be included in the study. First, at the end of the survey we asked participants if they would be willing to take a follow-up survey. Our study only includes the participants who answered that they would be willing to take a follow-up survey. Second, we limited the sampling frame to those individuals who agreed with the official on an issue but did not think that the issue in question should be a high priority for the city.10 For 10 One concern might be that individuals who indicated that an issue should be a low or medium priority for the city were actually expressing weak opposition. This does not seem to be the case as a substantial portion of these individuals were willing to sign a petition on the issue. On the post-treatment survey, 14% of those who expressed the issue should not be a priority for the city were willing to sign the petition. If we include those who expressed that it was a medium priority for the city, that number rises to 28%. The willingness of these individuals to sign a petition on an issue that was not a high priority, or even a medium priority, suggests that this was not something they opposed. Moreover, rerunning the analyses below including only those who expressed that the issue was a medium priority for the city does not change the substantive results. 863 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. Shanghai JiaoTong University, on 26 Oct 2018 at 03:53:05, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000473
Daniel M.Butler and Hans J.G.Hassell FIGURE 1.Research Design Steps Step Timing Action Step Taken By: 1 Week 0 Official picks issues s/he wants to write on Elected Official V 2 Week 1 Online survey of residents about these issues Research Team Y 3 Week 5 Identify the issues that the survey respondents Research Team could be moved on.Use in sampling frame (when given issue letter). Number movable on at least 1 issue:451 Number movable on 1 issue:244 Number movable on 2 issues:133 Number movable on 3 issues:59 Number movable on 4 issues:14 Number movable on 5 issues:1 V 4 Week5 Randomly assign individuals to treatments Research Team 化Y Placebo (No issue Issue (Info on 1 content).N=227 issue).N=224 丝 5 Weeks 6-8 Official sends assigned emails to citizens Elected Official V 6-7 Week 7-9 Follow-up,online survey of those who opened Research Team emailed (and were thus exposed to treatment). Placebo Group(N=119) Issue Group(N=125) Analysis. Research Team Total Number of People in final sample:244 Number movable on 1 issue:137 Number movable on 2 issues:75 Number movable on 3 issues:27 Number movable on 4 issues:4 Number movable on 5 issues:1 purposes of exposition,we will say that a citizen is leverage because,in some cases,citizens were mov- movable on an issue if in their response during the able on multiple issues.When creating the sampling baseline survey they said that they"believe the city frame,we took steps to privilege working with peo- should consider"the issue but that it"should not be ple who thought the issue was not a priority.We a priority the city"or said that the issue"should be a wanted to focus on people who agreed with the leg- medium priority for the city."Thus,our sample only islator but thought it was "not a priority"because included people who were movable on at least one we felt that this was the population of greatest in- issue.11 terest to officials trying to set the political agenda. For part of our analysis,the unit of observation Thus,when a citizen thought that at least one issue is the individual issue.This allows us to get more was not a priority for the city (but agreed the city should consider the issue),we only included the is- sues that they thought were not a priority in the sam- 11 If someone either disagreed with the official on all the issues pling frame.If someone did not have any issues that or agreed with the official and thought they were all high priority issues-or some combination of those two options-they were ex- they thought were "not a priority for the city,"then cluded from the sample prior to randomizing the treatments. the sampling frame included all the issues for which 864
Daniel M. Butler and Hans J.G. Hassell FIGURE 1. Research Design Steps Step Timing Acon Step Taken By: 1 Week 0 Official picks issues s/he wants to write on Elected Official 2 Week 1 Online survey of residents about these issues Research Team 3 Week 5 Idenfy the issues that the survey respondents could be moved on. Use in sampling frame (when given issue leer). Number movable on at least 1 issue: 451 Number movable on 1 issue: 244 Number movable on 2 issues: 133 Number movable on 3 issues: 59 Number movable on 4 issues: 14 Number movable on 5 issues: 1 Research Team 4 Week 5 Randomly assign individuals to treatments Research Team Placebo (No issue content). N = 227 Issue (Info on 1 issue). N = 224 5 Weeks 6-8 Official sends assigned emails to cizens Elected Official 6-7 Week 7-9 Follow-up, online survey of those who opened emailed (and were thus exposed to treatment). Research Team Placebo Group (N=119) Issue Group (N=125) 8 Analysis. Total Number of People in final sample: 244 Number movable on 1 issue: 137 Number movable on 2 issues: 75 Number movable on 3 issues: 27 Number movable on 4 issues: 4 Number movable on 5 issues: 1 Research Team purposes of exposition, we will say that a citizen is movable on an issue if in their response during the baseline survey they said that they “believe the city should consider” the issue but that it “should not be a priority the city” or said that the issue “should be a medium priority for the city.” Thus, our sample only included people who were movable on at least one issue.11 For part of our analysis, the unit of observation is the individual issue. This allows us to get more 11 If someone either disagreed with the official on all the issues or agreed with the official and thought they were all high priority issues—or some combination of those two options—they were excluded from the sample prior to randomizing the treatments. leverage because, in some cases, citizens were movable on multiple issues. When creating the sampling frame, we took steps to privilege working with people who thought the issue was not a priority. We wanted to focus on people who agreed with the legislator but thought it was “not a priority” because we felt that this was the population of greatest interest to officials trying to set the political agenda. Thus, when a citizen thought that at least one issue was not a priority for the city (but agreed the city should consider the issue), we only included the issues that they thought were not a priority in the sampling frame. If someone did not have any issues that they thought were “not a priority for the city,” then the sampling frame included all the issues for which 864 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. Shanghai JiaoTong University, on 26 Oct 2018 at 03:53:05, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000473