What-if analysis a Spend more time on die design (1): Increase time spent on initial die design (1)from 3 to 6 days Increase likelihood of going to Initial Surface Modeling (7)from 0.25to0.75 Is this worthwhile doing? Original E[F]=37 days ■NewE[F]=37days-no real effect！Why? Spend more time on final surface modeling (8): Increase time for that task from 7 to 10 days Increase likelihood of Finishing from 0.5 to 0.75 New E[F]30.8 days Why is this happening? 上游充通大￥ 16 Shanghai Jiao Tong University
+ - 16 What-if analysis Spend more time on die design (1): Increase time spent on initial die design (1) from 3 to 6 days Increase likelihood of going to Initial Surface Modeling (7) from 0.25 to 0.75 Is this worthwhile doing? Original E[F]=37 days New E[F]= 37 days – no real effect ! Why? Spend more time on final surface modeling (8): Increase time for that task from 7 to 10 days Increase likelihood of Finishing from 0.5 to 0.75 New E[F] = 30.8 days Why is this happening?
New Project Duration Simulation:1000 Runs 500 450 400 350 New distribution of Finish time 300 250 30.796 200 150 100 50 30 40 50 6070 8090 100110 120 Project Duration [days] 上游充道大￥ 17 Shanghai Jiao Tong University
+ - 17 New Project Duration 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Project Duration [days] Occurences Simulation: 1000 Runs 30.796 New distribution of Finish time
Concept Question 1 In the Die Design Project,why did spending more time on final surface modeling(step 8)help reduce average completion time when spending more time on early die design(step 1)did not?Because . The project avoids iterations altogether The early die design cycle has been shortened Fewer very long loops reduce the tail of the distribution It is a random result I don't know http://www.diaochapai.com/survey1679916 上浒充通大￥ 18 Shanghai Jiao Tong University
+ - Concept Question 1 In the Die Design Project, why did spending more time on final surface modeling (step 8) help reduce average completion time when spending more time on early die design (step 1) did not? Because … The project avoids iterations altogether The early die design cycle has been shortened Fewer very long loops reduce the tail of the distribution It is a random result I don’t know 18 http://www.diaochapai.com/survey1679916