《物流系统分析与优化》课程教学课件（PPT讲稿）Bullwhip Effect

·Elements of bullwhip models:Supplychainnetworkstructure:Demand model:Forecastingmethod:Leadtime·Replenishmentpolicy.Measures of bullwhip effect

• Elements of bullwhip models • Supply chain network structure • Demand model • Forecasting method • Lead time • Replenishment policy • Measures of bullwhip effect

·Bullwhip model 1-Chen et al. (2000): 1-1 serial: AR(1) demand:Simplemoving averageforecasting:Fixedleadtime.Orderuptoreplenishmentpolicy:Bullwhipratio=Var(order)/Var(demand)

• Bullwhip model 1 – Chen et al. (2000) • 1-1 serial • AR(1) demand • Simple moving average forecasting • Fixed lead time • Order up to replenishment policy • Bullwhip ratio = Var(order)/Var(demand)