2018/4/27 圈上活文大学 Overview of Lectures 国上茶大坐 0.Overview 14/15 Performance(a,b) 1.Introduction 16.Aircraft certification 2.Overallconfiauration 17.Aviation economics stimation Aircraft Design ootimization 6/7/B Aerodynamic design(a,b,c) (飞行器设计) 9.Thrust/Weight ratio and wing 20.Militaryaircraft desian-overview loading nental issues 10.Landing gear and Aircraft systems 2.Design skills 11.Power plant Wenbin Song 12.Stability and control School of Aeronautics and Astronautics 13.Loads,materials and structures Wenbin Song Overview 园上洋大学 Stakeholders in Aerospace Aviation 国上萧夫大学 Introduction Aircraft operating cost Cost of aircraft programs Passengers Passengers ·Design for DOC Governments ·Conclusions Air Traffic Control Airports Airlines MRO Lessors Manufacturers Military Aviation Industry in a Glance 因上承文大半 The Real Owner of All Those Planes 圈上游大峰 Employs around 28 million people in aviation and aviation related Lessors:(fleet size/order size) industry GECAS (GE Capital Aviation Services)(1276) Worth US$1.4 trillion in 2000. -ILFC(InternationalLease Finance Corporation),(824/254) Equal game in a Duopoly:Airbus/Boeing a 50%market share etion (358) each around 2000,and remains roughly so today. RBS Aviation Capital(117) BOC Aviation (108/62) Aidines: 6网 Lufthansa (245) British Airways(239) More than half the planes flying today are leased,not purchased by the airlines Duta Souree:related cmpuny s() Shanghal Jao Tong Universny-Dt.Wentin Song 1
2018/4/27 1 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Shanghai Jiao Tong University swb@sjtu.edu.cn Aircraft Design （飞行器设计） © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Overview of Lectures 0. Overview 1. Introduction 2. Overall configuration 3. Preliminary weight estimation 4. Refined weight estimation 5. Fuselage design 6/7/8 Aerodynamic design(a, b, c) 9. Thrust/Weight ratio and wing loading 10.Landing gear and Aircraft systems 11.Power plant 12.Stability and control 13.Loads, materials and structures 14/15 Performance(a, b) 16.Aircraft certification 17.Aviation economics 18.System integration and configuration management 19.Multidisciplinary design optimization 20.Military aircraft design – overview 21.Environmental issues 22.Design skills © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Overview • Introduction • Aircraft operating cost • Cost of aircraft programs • Passengers • Design for DOC • Conclusions 3 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Stakeholders in Aerospace & Aviation 4 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aviation Industry in a Glance • Employs around 28 million people in aviation and aviation related industry • Worth US$1.4 trillion in 2000. • Equal game in a Duopoly: Airbus/Boeing a 50% market share each around 2000, and remains roughly so today. 5 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics The Real Owner of All Those Planes • Lessors: (fleet size/order size) – GECAS (GE Capital Aviation Services)(1276) – ILFC(International Lease Finance Corporation), (824/254) – CIT Group Inc. (297) – Boeing Capital Corporation (358) – RBS Aviation Capital (117) – BOC Aviation (108/62) • Airlines: – American Airlines (679) – Air France (265) – Lufthansa (245) – British Airways (239) • More than half the planes flying today are leased, not purchased by the airlines 6 Data Source: related company websites (2009.10)
2018/4/27 World Airline Operating Profits 圈上活文大学 Market number of expected aircraft deliveries 国上茶大坐 0 Tme period 2007. Number of aircraft Regional jets Single aisle urra-1re Market value of aireraft Market Share by Region (2006) 国上清大学 Seat distribution for aircraft with over 150 seats 圈上游大学 Market Value Share by Region 4%7%2% North America 26% Asia-Pacific 25% 口Europe&Cls Latin America Middle East 38% ☐Hia Asia-Pacific Region represemts the single biggest market 200 100 Dr.Wenbin Song 圆上清天大学 Aircraft Operating Cost Breakdown 圈上游大峰 Airplane Total Opemating Cost DOC Capital Costs Cash Airplane Related Operating Cost deprecratico (CAROC) AIRCRAFT OPERATING COST .flight operation cost (crew ndathaladturathse cost,fuel/odl cost) Shan Airport fees (anding and navigation,ground handling) 2
2018/4/27 2 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics World Airline Operating Profits 7 Operating Profit in the Global Airline Industry, 1960-2005 Although the airline industry is characterized by boom-and-bust cycles, the long-term rate of profit in the industry is not impressive. For instance, the 10 year profit rate between 1995 and 2005 was only 1.8%, well below inflation figures. Source: ICAO Journal, various issues. © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Market number of expected aircraft deliveries 8 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Regional jets Single aisle Twin aisle Ultra-large New airplane deliveries Time period: 2007- 2026 Total new airplane 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Regional jets Single aisle Twin aisle Ultra-large Market value (2007 $B) Time period: 2007- 2026 Total market value=$2.8 trillion © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Market Share by Region (2006) 9 Market Value Share by Region North America Asia-Pacific Europe & CIS Latin America Middle East Africa 36% 26% 25% 4% 7% 2% © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Seat distribution for aircraft with over 150 seats 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 A300-600R A319-100 A321-200 A330-300 A340-300 A340-600 B707-320C B727-200Adv B737-300 B737-500 B737-700 B747-100 B747-400 B757-300 B767-200ER B767-300ER B777-100X2 B777-200IGW B777-200X2 B787-8 B787-3 A350XWB-900 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics AIRCRAFT OPERATING COST 11 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aircraft Operating Cost Breakdown 12 Capital Costs Cash Airplane Related Operating Cost (CAROC) System Related Cost • aircraft and traffic servicing • promotion and sales • passenger services • general and administrative overhead • ground property • equipment maintenance • depreciation expenses • maintenance cost (airframe, engine, overhead) • flight operation cost (crew cost, fuel/oil cost) • Airport fees (landing and navigation, ground handling) Airplane Total Operating Cost (TOC) • depreciation • insurance cost • loan repayment Passenger Related cost Cargo Related cost Airplane Related Operating Costs (AROC) DOC IOC
2018/4/27 Typical Airplane Cost Breakdown- percentage 园上清文通大学 Airplane Maintenance Cost Breakdown 国上游文大逢 Maintenance cost varies depending on AROC TOC .00 ght segment length Capital Arplane age 10-20%of AROC (DOC) 18.00% Improvement procedures Design improvements CAROC Scheduled maintenance program improvement Improved maintenance documentand training maintenance cost 180 9 27% 43 CAROC:Cash Airplane Related Operating Sha rsy-Dr.Wenbin Song Market-To sell your planes 国上活大峰 Major airlines vs.Low cost airlines 国上活大学 Major airlines,also referred to as full service carriers,legacy 77-3(datum areralt) 1000500 5.00 1001500 20 Global airports -Passengers and freight -Often is the national carrier 120 400 30 Low- /◆440 400p4x High density seating -Low price 40.60 -Secondary airports,intemet ticketing -High profitability -High growth rate(from nothing in 1995 to about 20%in 2007) 44.00 DOC per trip% The cost gap:US market 圈上活大￥ The cost gap:European Market 国上清充大坐 81 141 Network Airlines Network Airlines 2 6 -45% 10 39% 36 36% 44% Valujet/AirTran JetBlue Easyjet 4 Southwest Ryanair Difficulties to maintain the revenue gap The cost gap is-40%for Easyjet,-64%for Ryanair 0 1998 199619371998199920002001200220032004 199020002001200220032004 Source:http://enac.fr/recherche/leea 3
2018/4/27 3 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Typical Airplane Cost Breakdown - percentage 13 SROC, 10.00%CROC, 2.00% PROC, 18.00% AROC, 70.00% CAROC, 60.00% Capital Costs, 40.00% • SROC: System Related Operating Costs • CROC: Cargo Related Operating Costs • PROC: Passenger Related Operating Costs • AROC: Airplane Related Operating Costs • CAROC: Cash Airplane Related Operating Costs • Capital Costs – significant (28%) Crew, 40.00% Fuel, 20.00% Maintena nce, Landing, 17.00% 6.00% Ground Handling, 6.00% Control and Comm, 8.00% Other, 3.00% TOC AROC CAROC Airport fees © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Airplane Maintenance Cost Breakdown • Maintenance cost varies depending on – Airplane type – Average flight segment length – Airplane age • 10-20% of AROC (DOC) • Improvement procedures – Design improvements – Scheduled maintenance program improvement – Improved maintenance document and training 14 airframe 27% engine 30% overhead 43% maintenance cost © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Market – To sell your planes 15 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Major airlines vs. Low cost airlines • Major airlines, also referred to as full service carriers, legacy carriers – Full service – Global airports – Passengers and freight – Often is the national carrier • Low-cost airlines – Direct route, short haul – High density seating – Low price – Secondary airports, internet ticketing – High profitability – High growth rate (from nothing in 1995 to about 20% in 2007) 16 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics The cost gap: US market 17 Source: http://enac.fr/recherche/leea © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics The cost gap: European Market 18
2018/4/27 Cost distribution for different airlines上清文大￥ 国上茶大坐 Passenger servlees co ■Pucst Aireruft related e hort haul Cam锅s Station co Sales and reservatins Airport and ANS cha Cahin ere 可ght ere AIRCRAFT PROGRAM COST Other operating co 10 15 20 5 Ref 199_lone cust strutegy ago405-ppt Cost per ooo RPK (E) Aircraft Design Tasks and Process 国上活大峰 Life-Cycle Cost(LCC) 圈上游大学 Definition of life-cycle -Design-Manufacture-Operation-Disposal ·Ufe-cycle Cost -Total cost of programover its lifecycle 85%of total LCC decided by the end of preliminary design Market analysis.Airworthiness Design requirements objectives 100 95% Design methodology,integration and Optimbzation 85% 65% Weight Geometry Structure Balance Systems Stability si-Dr.Wenbin Sang -Dr.Wenbin Song Aircraft Project Cost Curves 圆上清天大学 RD Cost for New Aircraft Projects 国上清充大坐 Actual aircraft project costs normally go up with time due to technical comolexities 2000 Fixed price contracts are often used for defense projects 41900 While for civil aircraft,market mechanism determines the price 1600 1300 1200 1000 Actual cost cuve k650 k260 1960s 1970s 1980s 19g0s 2000 Time Sh ny-Dt.Wentin Song Dr.Wenhin Song 4
2018/4/27 4 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Cost distribution for different airlines 19 0 5 10 15 20 25 Other operating costs Flight crew Cabin crew Aircraft fuel and oil Airport and ANS charges Sales and reservations costs Advertising and promotions costs Station costs Commission Aircraft related costs Passenger services costs Cost per 000 RPK (£) Full cost short haul airline Low cost airline Ref. 199_low cost strategy 040405.ppt © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics AIRCRAFT PROGRAM COST 20 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aircraft Design Tasks and Process 21 Market analysis, Airworthiness Design requirements & objectives Design methodology, integration and Optimization Geometry Aerodynamics Structure Weight & Balance Systems Performance Propulsion Stability & Control Noise & Emission Economics © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) • Definition of life-cycle – Design – Manufacture – Operation – Disposal • Life-cycle Cost – Total cost of program over its lifecycle • 85% of total LCC decided by the end of preliminary design 22 Impact on LCC (%) Operation and support Disposal Manufacture/aquisition Detailed design Preliminary design Conceptua l design 100 95% 85% 65% 0 Time © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aircraft Project Cost Curves • Actual aircraft project costs normally go up with time due to technical complexities • Fixed price contracts are often used for defense projects • While for civil aircraft, market mechanism determines the price © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics RD Cost for New Aircraft Projects 24 260 650 1000 1300 1900 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 研发费用（万美元/座） Time
2018/4/27 Typical Aircraft Project Cash Flow 国上清文大学 Aircraft Program Break Even Point 圆上游大学 (Number of alcrat producod Break Even Analysis 12 200 10 Source:AIAA 86-2667 B747,B787,A380andB747-I 国上活大峰 Market Forecast 圈上游大学 Used to be a driving reason for the argument between B787 and A380 Airbus:1318 VLA between 2009-2028 ·Boeing:740LA Break-even point for A380:400 Fastest growing region? CK Airbus says:A380 is better than B7471,because its DOC/seat is 15-20%better! Boeing says;B7471 is better than A380.because its DOC/seat-miles is 15%better Shanghar a TongUriversy-Dr.Wenbn Song chool of Aemnautics and As'rcnautics A380 and Road Trip by Cars 国上活大华 国上清充大坐 352,000 liters on A380 person per km 555 people and 15000km->0.04litre per person per km PASSENGERS ersy-Dr.Wentin Song 5
2018/4/27 5 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Typical Aircraft Project Cash Flow 25 Source: AIAA 86-2667 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aircraft Program Break Even Point 26 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics B747, B787, A380 and B747-I 27 Airbus says: A380 is better than B747I, because its DOC/seat is 15-20% better! Boeing says: B747I is better than A380, because its DOC/seat-miles is 15% better! © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Market Forecast • Used to be a driving reason for the argument between B787 and A380 • Airbus：1318 VLA between 2009-2028 • Boeing：740 LA • Break-even point for A380: 400 • Fastest growing region? 28 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics A380 and Road Trip by Cars • 352,000 liters on A380 • Car journeys ->4400 cars ->17600people travel 1200 km maximum (assume 80litres/car, and 15km/litre)-> 3.75litre per person per km • 555 people and 15000km -> 0.04litre per person per km 29 © Shanghai Jiao Tong University – Dr. Wenbin Song School of Aeronautics and Astronautics PASSENGERS 30