七、现代经济发展理论 Modern Economic development Theories 假设:科学技术进步、工业化、经济增长是发展月标 欧美发展模式是可借鉴的 Assumption: development objectives-technology progress, industrialization, economic growth and models in Europe and America could be used as references 资本积累和工业化理论 Theories on industrialization and capital accumulation 二元经济理论 Theory on Dual- Economy 依附理论 Theory of Dependency Development Economics I Theories
七、现代经济发展理论 Modern Economic Development Theories 假设：科学技术进步、工业化、经济增长是发展目标 欧美发展模式是可借鉴的 Assumption: development objectives—technology progress, industrialization, economic growth and models in Europe and America could be used as references • 资本积累和工业化理论Theories on industrialization and capital accumulation • 二元经济理论 Theory on Dual-Economy • 依附理论 Theory of Dependency Development Economics I Theories
(一)哈罗德-多马经济增长模型 Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Model (Neo-classical Growth) 1、中心问题 Central question 个国家在长时期内的国民收入和就业的稳定均衡增长 所需要的收入增长条件? What is the rate of income growth necessary for smooth economic development?
（一）哈罗德-多马经济增长模型 Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Model (Neo-classical Growth) 1、中心问题 Central question 一个国家在长时期内的国民收入和就业的稳定均衡增长 所需要的收入增长条件？What is the rate of income growth necessary for smooth economic development?
理论的假定前提 Strong assumptions 全社会所生产的产品只有一种,消费品或资本品one product in all society, consumption goods or capital goods 只有劳动和资本两种生产要素 two production factors-labor and capital 就业均衡 initial full employment equilibrium 立品的规模收益不变 stable of scaled revenue of the products 不存在技术进步 without technology progress
2、理论的假定前提 Strong assumptions 全社会所生产的产品只有一种，消费品或资本品one product in all society, consumption goods or capital goods 只有劳动和资本两种生产要素two production factors-labor and capital 就业均衡 initial full employment equilibrium 产品的规模收益不变stable of scaled revenue of the products 不存在技术进步without technology progress
3、结论 Conclusions Domar:为了实现充分就业的经济增长,要求: For full employment growth rate, it is required that g=dl=ad(rate of net investment g, full employment growth rate;a,边际储蓄率 product of th ne marginal propensity to save;8,边际资本生产率 marginal productivity of capital Harrod:Gw=sC(Gw,有保证的增长率 Warranted rate of growth then to actual rate of growth;s,储蓄率 saving rate,C,边际资本产 出率 Incremental capital-output ratio 资本存量第一重要而忽视其他因素 concern only capital stock but dministrative, managerial or institutional were ignored
3、结论 Conclusions Domar: 为了实现充分就业的经济增长，要求: For full employment growth rate, it is required that g=dl=аδ (rate of net investment) g，full employment growth rate；а, 边际储蓄率 product of the marginal propensity to save； δ, 边际资本生产率marginal productivity of capital Harrod: Gw=s/C (Gw, 有保证的增长率Warranted rate of Growth then to actual rate of growth; s, 储蓄率saving rate, C, 边际资本产 出率incremental capital-output ratio) 资本存量第一重要而忽视其他因素 concern only capital stock but dministrative, managerial or institutional were ignored
(二)罗斯托增长理论-起飞理论 The rostowian Stages-of-growth Theory: Take-off Theory 发展的线性历史过程 Liner process of development (罗斯托,19060《经济增长的阶段推共产党宣言》A Non-communist Manifesto The hearts and minds of the people of the Third World could be won over of american capitalism through a Marshall Plan type offoreign aid. The lesson ofeconomic history, i.e. Western experience. is that the tricks of growth are not that difficult Distinct time segments, characterized by different sources and patterns of economic changes and it is a specific succession of these segments, so that b cannot occur before a, or c before b
（二）罗斯托增长理论--起飞理论 The Rostowian Stages-of-growth Theory:Take-off Theory 发展的线性历史过程Liner process of development （罗斯托，1960《经济增长的阶段——非共产党宣言》A Non-communist Manifesto） The hearts and minds of the people of the Third World could be won over of American capitalism through a Marshall Plan type of foreign aid. The lesson of economic history, i.e. Western experience… is that the tricks of growth are not that difficult Distinct time segments, characterized by different sources and patterns of economic changes and it is a specific succession of these segments, so that b cannot occur before a, or c before b