Computable general equilibrium(CGE) CoP modelling and global supply chain(GSC) analysis presentation by Peter b. dixon at the global value-Chain Training and Research workshop UIBE, Beijing August 2. 2017
1 Computable general equilibrium (CGE) CoPS modelling and global supply chain (GSC) analysis presentation by Peter B. Dixon at the Global Value-Chain Training and Research Workshop UIBE , Beijing August 2, 2017
Topics CoP 1. Input-output economics, the foundation of CGe GSC (a) the input-output table (b) national accounts (c) the one-country input-output model d) the leontief paradox (e) effective rates of protection (e) the multi-regional or multi-nationalI-O model starting point for CsC analysis 2. CGE modelling (a)Johansens model of norway (b) Johansens solution matrix versus Leontief's inverse (c trade in a cge model, armington to melitz 2
2 CoPS Topics 1. Input-output economics, the foundation of CGE & GSC (a) the input-output table (b) national accounts (c) the one-country input-output model (d) the Leontief paradox (e) effective rates of protection (e) the multi-regional or multi-national I-O model - starting point for CSC analysis 2. CGE modelling (a) Johansen’s model of Norway (b) Johansen’s solution matrix versus Leontief’s inverse (c) trade in a CGE model, Armington to Melitz
Topics CoP 3. Applying existing Cge models to supply chain issues (a) Walmsley minor on reversing NAFTA (b)Dixon, Rimmer and waschik on Buy-America(n) 4. Towards a Cge model with supply chain features: designs, components, assembly and sales 5. Concluding remarks 3
3 CoPS Topics 3. Applying existing CGE models to supply chain issues (a) Walmsley & Minor on reversing NAFTA (b) Dixon, Rimmer and Waschik on Buy-America(n) 4. Towards a CGE model with supply chain features: designs, components, assembly and sales 5. Concluding remarks
1. Input-output economics Col Wassily leontief 905-1999 Nobel prize for economics
4 CoPS 1. Input-output economics WassilyLeontief 1905-1999 Nobel prize for economics in 1973
Input-output database for USAGE, a Col detailed cge model of the us Absorption Matrix Prod Invest- House- ExportsGovt ucers holds Size ←|→|←1 1→←1→ Basic Flows CXS BASI BAS2 BAS3 BAS4BAS5 Margins CxSxN MARI MAR2 MAR3 MAR4 MAR5 Sale Taxes CXS TAXI TAX2 TAX3 TAX4 TAX ↓ Labour M LABOCCIND C=Number of commodities /= Number of industries S=2; domestic and imported Capital CAPITAL M= Number of occupations N= Number of commodities used as margins Joint production Duty Size ←I→ ←1→ MAKE TARIFF 5
5 CoPS Input-output database for USAGE, a detailed CGE model of the US Absorption Matrix 1 2 3 4 5 Producers Investors Households Exports Govt Size I → I → 1 → 1 → 1 → Basic Flows CS BAS1 BAS2 BAS3 BAS4 BAS5 Margins CSN MAR1 MAR2 MAR3 MAR4 MAR5 Sales Taxes CS TAX1 TAX2 TAX3 TAX4 TAX5 Labour M LAB0CCIND Capital 1 CAPITAL C = Number of commodities I = Number of industries S = 2; domestic and imported M = Number of occupations N = Number of commodities used as margins Joint Production Matrix Import Duty Size I → Size 1 → C MAKE C TARIFF