16.682 The Aerospace Industry april 13 class Special guests Heidi wood Myles walton Col John Keesee
16.682 The Aerospace Industry April 13 Class Special Guests: Heidi Wood Myles Walton Col. John Keesee
Plan for the class 3: 05-3: 10 Announcements and introductions Write one question about market Focus on 3X5 card 3: 10-3: 35 Cargo Aircraft Growth lean Thinking 3: 35-3: 55 Market Focus-Heidi wood 3:55-4:05 Break 4: 05-4: 50 Ay Week article discussions The Us government should give higher priority to r&d investment in Zero Point energy than scramjet propulsion NASa Should use commercial space transportation exclusively 4: 50-4:55 Muddy cards 4:55 Adjourn
Plan for the Class 3:05-3:10 Announcements and Introductions Write one question about Market Focus on 3X5 card 3:10-3:35 Cargo Aircraft Growth & Lean Thinking 3:35-3:55 Market Focus - Heidi Wood 3:55-4:05 Break 4:05-4:50 Av Week Article Discussions • The US Government should give higher priority to R&D investment in Zero Point Energy than scramjet propulsion. • NASA should use commercial space transportation exclusively 4:50-4:55 Muddy cards 4:55 Adjourn
World GDP growth deep recession and strong recovery GDP annual growth forecast Pre-attack 5%20000 2003-20 3.5%pa 2000-2020 3.3%p.a 33%5D 3% 2% Post-attack 000-2003 20032020 1% 23%D.a 3.3%p.a 32%p.a 0% 20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 Source: DRPWEFA Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission ,Air cargo growth correlates with gDP growth .World gdP expected to average 3. 2% growth per year World air cargo traffic expected to grow at 6. 4%per year Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 However, most major market forecasters predict that world GDP will make a strong recovery, which will then of course be the impetus for strong recovery in the air cargo market. The predictions for the next twenty years are for world GDP to grow on average 3. 2% per year and for world air cargo traffic to grow on average 6.4% per year
•Air cargo growth correlates with GDP growth •World GDP expected to average 3.2% growth per year •World air cargo traffic expected to grow at 6.4% per year Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 However, most major market forecasters predict that world GDP will make a strong recovery, which will then of course be the i mpetus for strong recovery in the air cargo market. The predictions for the next twenty years are for world GDP to grow on average 3.2% per year and for world air cargo traffic to grow on average 6.4% per year. Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission
Commercial Drivers for Growth in Air Cargo Globalization trends Longer distances between producers and consumers Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa · Lean manufacturing Faster response to market demand e.g.JIT Focus on "flow to eliminate waste Air freight operators looking for new markets Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface Gap in capability-"middle market Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days Air is expensive but takes only a few day Operating economics drive Increased capacity per air freighter Reduced crew and fuel costs
Commercial Drivers for Growth in Air Cargo • Globalization trends – Longer distances between producers and consumers – Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa • Lean manufacturing – Focus on “flow” to eliminate waste, e.g. JIT – Faster response to market demands • Air freight operators looking for new markets – Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface – Gap in capability- “middle market” • Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days • Air is expensive but takes only a few days • Operating economics drive – Increased capacity per air freighter – Reduced crew and fuel costs
Regional growth Average annual FTK growth rate(%p a) Top Ten markets 2000-2020 World 7tI average 5.5% 2 foz 0 of word 2000 FTK 14.7%8.7%8.5%6.8%6.7%6.3%3.7%3.7%3.2%2.4% Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission Asia growing fastest; mature markets growing slower Air cargo growth( domestic and international) through China airports expected to grow 11.2% per annum for next 20 years Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), "Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China Now here is a chart of the top ten air freight markets in the next twenty years according to the global Market Forecast produced by Airbus. As is evident, the fastest growing markets are those linking Asia to other regions as well as Intra Asia whereas the domestic US market and other maturing markets will grow much more slowly
Regional Growth •Asia growing fastest; mature markets growing slower •Air cargo growth (domestic and international) through China airports expected to grow 11.2% per annum for next 20 years Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), “Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China” Source: Dan Morales, Commercial Cargo Needs, Market, Metrics, 16.886 presentation, Feb 25, 2004 Now here is a chart of the top ten air freight markets in the next twenty years according to the Global Market Forecast produced by Airbus. As is evident, the fastest growing markets are those linking Asia to other regions as well as Intra Asia whereas the do mestic US market and other maturing markets will grow much more slowly. Courtesy of Daniel Morales. Used with permission