Challenge:Multiple-Loop Systems + 义 Eggs Chickens Road Crossings + 17
Challenge: Multiple-Loop Systems 17 + - + + Eggs Chickens Road Crossings
New product adoption model New product adoption Potential adopters Adoption rate Adopters B AR Market saturation Word of mouth 18
New product adoption model 18
Interacting positive and negative feedback loops of cause-effect relationships,with stocks,flows, delays,and non-linearities,are capable of generating all observed modes of behavior. 19
19 Interacting positive and negative feedback loops of cause-effect relationships, with stocks, flows, delays, and non-linearities, are capable of generating all observed modes of behavior
How to represent them in models? Tasks Done Work Rate Effect of Resources on Productivity Project Control Productivity Side Effect Indicated Resources Resources Z Normal Change In + Productivity Resources Time to Adjust Total Tasks to Resources Do Time Remaining 20
How to represent them in models? Tasks Done Work Rate Indicated Resources Total Tasks to D o Time Remaining - +- Productivity + Normal Productivity + Resources Change In Resources + + - Time to Adjust Resources Project Control - Effect of Resources on Productivity + Side Effect 20
Resources Productivity 10 Without 8.5 With Side 0.9 With Side 7 Effects 0.8 Effects 5.5 Without 0.7 0.6 02468101214 16 1820 0246 8101214161820 Time(Month) Time(Month) Resources:Side Effects-Scope Growth People Productivity:Side Effects-Scope Growth Tasks/(Month'Person) Resources:Negative Control-Scope Growth People Productivity:Negative Control-Scope Growth Tasks/(Month'Person) >change in the behavior of the project as a result of our attempts to manage (achieve a schedule)in the face of the external change(increase in scope). 21
Resources 10 8.5 7 5.5 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Time (Month) Resources : Side Effects - Scope Growth People Resources : Negative Control - Scope Growth People Productivity 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Time (Month) Productivity : Side Effects - Scope Growth Tasks/(Month*Person) Productivity : Negative Control - Scope Growth Tasks/(Month*Person) With Side Effects Without With Side Effects Without change in the behavior of the project as a result of our attempts to manage (achieve a schedule) in the face of the external change (increase in scope). 21