Chapter 1:Introduction to "Mobility"3 Another key aspect from a mobility market perspective is the rise of multiradio devices td y he e e (cel collaboration among various Standards Development Organizations(SDO)that is respon- sible for developing the set of technical specifications for 3G systems based on the evolved GSM core network.In particular,3GPP has defined a triple-mode cellular archi- tecture that allows a single radio to be shared among second-generation GPRS.third-gen- eration HspA and next-generation ite radio access modes.While this single-radio defi- nition leads to lower bills of material for devices,the restrictions are such that these dual mode devices can only be connected to one network at any instant However,with the increasing adoption of IEEE 802.11-based wireless local-area network (WLAN)technology in smartphone devices,the 2010 decade will see the era of true multiple-radio devices.ABI Research recently predicted that between 2006 and 2015.the Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR)of Wi-Fi-enabled smartphones will be 85 per cent.Figure 1-2 illustrates this growth in millions of units shipped,so that by 2015.ABI Research estimates that one in three handsets shipped globally will include Wi- Fi-enabled dual-mode capability. 600 00 里300 200 100 2006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Figure 1-2 Growtb in Wi-Fi-Enabled Mobile Handsers Another key development in the cellular industry is the rise of multiple handsets per sub- scriber.In 2007,the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) rted that over 25 c untries had cellular penetratio n rates in excess of 100 percent. taking the lead in reaching 150 celular subsc er 100 inhabitants' 009.th Business nected to the Internet,equivalent to nearly six devices per person on the planet.Many of these new devices will be used to provide machine-to-machine(M2M)services,and while many M2M devices are not strictly mobile (an M2M-enabled residential utility meter is unlikely to move),it is likely that a significant proportion of these new devices will use wireless connectivity to provide access to M2M services. From<www.wowebook.com>
ptg Another key aspect from a mobility market perspective is the rise of multiradio devices. These devices are distinct from cellular-centric multimode devices that have been specified by the likes of the Third Generation Partnership Project (http://www.3gpp.org), a collaboration among various Standards Development Organizations (SDO) that is responsible for developing the set of technical specifications for 3G systems based on the evolved GSM core network. In particular, 3GPP has defined a triple-mode cellular architecture that allows a single radio to be shared among second-generation GPRS, third-generation HSPA, and next-generation LTE radio access modes. While this single-radio definition leads to lower bills of material for devices, the restrictions are such that these dual mode devices can only be connected to one network at any instant. However, with the increasing adoption of IEEE 802.11–based wireless local-area network (WLAN) technology in smartphone devices, the 2010 decade will see the era of true multiple-radio devices. ABI Research recently predicted that between 2006 and 2015, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Wi-Fi–enabled smartphones will be 85 percent3 . Figure 1-2 illustrates this growth in millions of units shipped, so that by 2015, ABI Research estimates that one in three handsets shipped globally will include WiFi–enabled dual-mode capability. Chapter 1: Introduction to “Mobility” 3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Wi-Fi Enabled Handsets (Millions) Figure 1-2 Growth in Wi-Fi–Enabled Mobile Handsets Another key development in the cellular industry is the rise of multiple handsets per subscriber. In 2007, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that over 25 countries had cellular penetration rates in excess of 100 percent, with Italy taking the lead in reaching 150 cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants4 . Many analysts are predicting this trend will continue. In 2009, the Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) estimated that in 2010, 35 billion devices will be connected to the Internet, equivalent to nearly six devices per person on the planet. Many of these new devices will be used to provide machine-to-machine (M2M) services, and while many M2M devices are not strictly mobile (an M2M-enabled residential utility meter is unlikely to move), it is likely that a significant proportion of these new devices will use wireless connectivity to provide access to M2M services. From <www.wowebook.com>
4 Building the Mobile Internet Reinforcing this shift from architectures that assume a single device per user to one where each subscriber has a multitude of devices is the current revolution in tablet-style com- puters.Tablets,smartbooks,and netbooks will see a blurring of functionality between the legacy laptop and smartphone markets.However,Forrester Research has recently highlighted a shift in the heterogeneous PC markets where future growth is driven by consumers adopting a"multiple PC"approach to fit their lifestyles: Desktop PCs:Growth will be driven in gaming as well as watching and editing high definition and three-dimensional video and graphics Tablets:Growth will be driven by their ease of media consumption as well as access to email and web browser-based services Netbooks:Growth will be driven by web-centric operating systems and the associat ed cloud-based applications and storage. So,if the future mobile market will be characterized by device divergence,with users having a plethora of specialized Internet-enabled devices for watching 3D media,interac- tive gaming,collaboration,and communications,through to basic Internet-enabled sen sors.the oks used to s ort such dev ices ge This convergence is being option of IP rgent technolo "mobile"networks,with IP now recognized as the fundamenta Cellular networks are now evolving to enable the Internet to be available anytime and anywhere.IP is already impacting all aspects of the mobile operator's network,from radio bearer support through transmission and service delivery capability.Indeed,the various definitions for the next generation of mobile networks all align around an"all-IP"vision, providing purely packet-switched capabilities and solely supporting IP services. As cellular networks transition to"all-IP"networks.the architectures of fixed and cellular orks conver re 1-3 illustrates this,show ing a classical fixed broadhand net of C D which ide gate to a Digital Subsc riber Line Access Mu iplexer(DSLAM otto Broadband Network Cateway (BNG.hic IP Point of Attachment(PoA)to the Internet.An IP/Ethernet transport network is typi cally used to provide connectivity between the DSLAM and the BNG.The figure then shows a tablet user wirelessly attaching to the residential gateway using.for example. IEEE 802.11-defined Wi-Fi technology.with the solid arrow showing the communica tions between the tablet user and a correspondent node on the Internet. The lower portion of the figure shows a conventional"all-IP"cellular network comprising sed cellular anced Node B(ENB)ba The ENB is sing lice. o an onnected thro ugh an IP/Et cket Dat ving Ga y:with he former bemg the Pfor moe uberib cw. r.Ih dual-line arrow shows the communications between the smartphone user and a corre- spondent node on the Internet. From <www.wowebook.com>
ptg Reinforcing this shift from architectures that assume a single device per user to one where each subscriber has a multitude of devices is the current revolution in tablet-style computers. Tablets, smartbooks, and netbooks will see a blurring of functionality between the legacy laptop and smartphone markets. However, Forrester Research has recently highlighted a shift in the heterogeneous PC market5 where future growth is driven by consumers adopting a “multiple PC” approach to fit their lifestyles: ■ Desktop PCs: Growth will be driven in gaming as well as watching and editing highdefinition and three-dimensional video and graphics. ■ Tablets: Growth will be driven by their ease of media consumption as well as access to email and web browser–based services. ■ Netbooks: Growth will be driven by web-centric operating systems and the associated cloud-based applications and storage. So, if the future mobile market will be characterized by device divergence, with users having a plethora of specialized Internet-enabled devices for watching 3D media, interactive gaming, collaboration, and communications, through to basic Internet-enabled sensors, the networks used to support such devices are set to increasingly converge. This convergence is being driven by the increasing adoption of IP as the convergent technology across “fixed” and “mobile” networks, with IP now recognized as the fundamental building block for all next-generation communication networks. Cellular networks are now evolving to enable the Internet to be available anytime and anywhere. IP is already impacting all aspects of the mobile operator’s network, from radio bearer support through transmission and service delivery capability. Indeed, the various definitions for the next generation of mobile networks all align around an “all-IP” vision, providing purely packet-switched capabilities and solely supporting IP services. As cellular networks transition to “all-IP” networks, the architectures of fixed and cellular networks converge. Figure 1-3 illustrates this, showing a classical fixed broadband network comprised of Customer Premises Equipment (CPE), which provides residential gateway functions, connected to a Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer (DSLAM), which then connects to a Broadband Network Gateway (BNG), which provides the user’s IP Point of Attachment (PoA) to the Internet. An IP/Ethernet transport network is typically used to provide connectivity between the DSLAM and the BNG. The figure then shows a tablet user wirelessly attaching to the residential gateway using, for example, IEEE 802.11–defined Wi-Fi technology, with the solid arrow showing the communications between the tablet user and a correspondent node on the Internet. The lower portion of the figure shows a conventional “all-IP” cellular network comprising a smartphone User Equipment (UE), connected using licensed cellular technology to an Enhanced Node B (ENB) base station. The ENB is connected through an IP/Ethernet transport network to the Packet Data Network Gateway (PGW) and Serving Gateway (SGW) functionality, with the former being the IP PoA for the mobile subscriber. The dual-line arrow shows the communications between the smartphone user and a correspondent node on the Internet. 4 Building the Mobile Internet From <www.wowebook.com>
Chapter 1:Introduction to "Mobility"5 DSLAM able ateway 0O00000OOX -E Network coccox (11 Packet Data teway Corre Figure 1-3 Convergence Between Fixed and Cellular Networks Note 3GPP has defined an all-IP architecture with two logical gateway functionalities SGW and PGW.From a user plane perspective,the SGW simply provides a tunnel switch capability,conceptually similar to a Layer 2 Tunneling Protocol Access Concentrator (LAC).Just as the fixed-line LAC allows multiple retail providers to provide independent IP PoA services over a common wholesale DSL infrastructure,3GPP's SGW allows independ- ent IP PoA services to be provided by roaming partners. Finally,Figure 1-3 shows one of the most recent advances in cellular architecture-the adontion of the home bas station.in this instar m fixe-robandnork ance,a Home ENB (HENB).The HENB k to cor core cellular network.The d line then nonstrates the communicati ons b ect to the tween the smartph e user attached to the HENB and a correspondent node on the Internet,highlighting how traffic uses a fixed-line IP service provided by the BNG before connecting to an IP PoA in the cellular domain. Consumption Trends In 2009,Cisco IBSG announced the latest results from its Connected Life Market Watch This program aims to provide market insight into the adoption of mobile technologies. The analysis highlighted that from an Average Revenue Per User(ARPU)perspective. mobile data already represented 25 percent of the total spending for U.S.subscribers, From<www.wowebook.com>
ptg Figure 1-3 Convergence Between Fixed and Cellular Networks Chapter 1: Introduction to “Mobility” 5 Broadband Network Gateway DSLAM Wireless Residential Gateway Internet IP/Ethernet Transport Network Packet Data Network/ Serving Gateway Macro ENB Wi-Fi Enabled Tablet Home ENB Cellular Smartphone Correspondent Node Note 3GPP has defined an all-IP architecture with two logical gateway functionalities, SGW and PGW. From a user plane perspective, the SGW simply provides a tunnel switch capability, conceptually similar to a Layer 2 Tunneling Protocol Access Concentrator (LAC). Just as the fixed-line LAC allows multiple retail providers to provide independent IP PoA services over a common wholesale DSL infrastructure, 3GPP’s SGW allows independent IP PoA services to be provided by roaming partners. Finally, Figure 1-3 shows one of the most recent advances in cellular architecture—the adoption of the home base station, in this instance, a Home ENB (HENB). The HENB uses the consumer fixed-broadband network to connect to the core cellular network. The dotted line then demonstrates the communications between the smartphone user attached to the HENB and a correspondent node on the Internet, highlighting how traffic uses a fixed-line IP service provided by the BNG before connecting to an IP PoA in the cellular domain. Consumption Trends In 2009, Cisco IBSG announced the latest results from its Connected Life Market Watch6 . This program aims to provide market insight into the adoption of mobile technologies. The analysis highlighted that from an Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) perspective, mobile data already represented 25 percent of the total spending for U.S. subscribers, From <www.wowebook.com>
6 Building the Mobile Interne with revenue from data growing at an annualized rate of 40 percent,as illustrated in Figure 1-4. 5 35 $ $10 2005 2006 口Voice▣Data Figure 1-4 Average Revenue per United States Mobile Subscriber The ibsG study also highlighted a shift in consumption habits as cellular subscribers tarted to consu more mobile Intern sed se s.When looking y of US mobiletrnet consumtion S nected Life occasiona mobile Internet users were more likely to access services when mobile(with 56 percent of usage happening"on the go").those regular users of mobile Internet-based services were effectively changing their behavior to consume the majority of mobile Internet serv- ices from fixed locations (35 percent from within the home and 27 percent from the office). ON THE GO 56% 38% 27% IN AN OFFICE 10% AT HOME 34% 35% Occasional User Regular User Figure 1-5 Location of United States Mobile Internet Consumption From <www.wowebook.com>
ptg with revenue from data growing at an annualized rate of 40 percent, as illustrated in Figure 1-4. 6 Building the Mobile Internet $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2005 2006 2007 2008 Voice Data Figure 1-4 Average Revenue per United States Mobile Subscriber The IBSG study also highlighted a shift in consumption habits as cellular subscribers started to consume more mobile Internet-based services. When looking at where mobile Internet consumption occurred, Figure 1-5 illustrates the findings of the Connected Life Market Watch study of U.S. mobile Internet consumption. Significantly, while occasional mobile Internet users were more likely to access services when mobile (with 56 percent of usage happening “on the go”), those regular users of mobile Internet–based services were effectively changing their behavior to consume the majority of mobile Internet services from fixed locations (35 percent from within the home and 27 percent from the office). 34% 35% 10% 27% 56% 38% Occasional User Regular User AT HOME IN AN OFFICE ON THE GO Figure 1-5 Location of United States Mobile Internet Consumption From <www.wowebook.com>
Chapter 1:Introduction to "Mobility"7 Note The shift to indoor consumption is significant because conventional macro-cellular networks need to account for the Building Penetration Loss(BPL)experienced as signals propagate through walls,floors,and windows of buildings.The BPL can result in 90-99.9 percent of the energy of wireless signal being lost,just because a user was consuming a service indoors compared to a similarly located outdoor user. s in fixed locar and fon ast the of visual networki co has developed the Visua gaplicationsonthe wth of the fixed and ast'.VNI developed as an annual survey to estimate global IP traffic growth and trends for both consumer and business user groups.In particular,as it relates to mobile Internet con- sumption,the latest VNI forecast predicts that mobile data in 2014 will be 39 times larg- er than the mobile data traffic in 2009,as highlighted in Figure 1-6. PB/Month 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0+ 2009 20102011201220132014 Figure 1-6 Montbly Mobile Internet Traffic in Perabytes The latest VNI study also provides a forecast for the growth of mobile data traffic on a per- content-type basis.Figure 1-7 highlights the forecast growth of mobile video consumption. so that by the end of 2014.video is forecast to comprise 66 percent of all mobile data traf fic,and mobile voice traffic will comprise only 4 percent of the overall total traffic. So far,this chapter has looked at wbere users consume mobile Internet services,high- lighting a shift away from truly mobile scenarios to locations that can be characterized as "in-building."You hav uhat are likely to be med over mobile devices in the futu majority of traffic be ideo services The final piece of the puze is unders en users acce bile Internet services mobile Internet services over a 24-hour period.The figure clearly illustrates the diurnal variation of traffic load within the network,showing how the data-busy hour is between 8:00 and 9:00 in the evening. From<www.wowebook.com>
ptg One hypothesis of why more frequent users are more likely to consume mobile Internet services in fixed locations is the increasing shift toward video-based services. To track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications on the growth of the fixed and mobile Internet, Cisco has developed the Visual Network Index (VNI) forecast7 . VNI was developed as an annual survey to estimate global IP traffic growth and trends for both consumer and business user groups. In particular, as it relates to mobile Internet consumption, the latest VNI forecast predicts that mobile data in 2014 will be 39 times larger than the mobile data traffic in 2009, as highlighted in Figure 1-6. Chapter 1: Introduction to “Mobility” 7 Note The shift to indoor consumption is significant because conventional macro-cellular networks need to account for the Building Penetration Loss (BPL) experienced as signals propagate through walls, floors, and windows of buildings. The BPL can result in 90–99.9 percent of the energy of wireless signal being lost, just because a user was consuming a service indoors compared to a similarly located outdoor user. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PB/Month Figure 1-6 Monthly Mobile Internet Traffic in Petabytes The latest VNI study also provides a forecast for the growth of mobile data traffic on a percontent-type basis. Figure 1-7 highlights the forecast growth of mobile video consumption, so that by the end of 2014, video is forecast to comprise 66 percent of all mobile data traffic, and mobile voice traffic will comprise only 4 percent of the overall total traffic. So far, this chapter has looked at where users consume mobile Internet services, highlighting a shift away from truly mobile scenarios to locations that can be characterized as “in-building.” You have seen what types of services are likely to be consumed over mobile devices in the future, with the majority of traffic being related to video services. The final piece of the puzzle is to understand when users access mobile Internet services. Figure 1-8 is a representation of the traffic load in a commercial cellular network offering mobile Internet services over a 24-hour period. The figure clearly illustrates the diurnal variation of traffic load within the network, showing how the data-busy hour is between 8:00 and 9:00 in the evening. From <www.wowebook.com>