Period measures a Does the tfr tell how many children the current young women will eventually have? a No, because their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now
Period Measures Does the TFR tell how many children the current young women will eventually have? No, because their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now
Period measures n tFR is influenced by age at childbearing a Assume all the women only give birth to 1 child throughout their whole life, and the childbearing age is fixed at 25, what's the tfr in 2012? The age-specific-birth-rate for age 25 is 1, and age-specific- birth rates for other ages are o, tfr is 1 a Assume all the women only give birth to 1 child throughout their whole life In 2012 all the women aged 24 and 25 give birth to 1 child, what's the ter in 2012? a The age-specific-birth-rates for age 24 and 25 are 1, tFR is 2
Period Measures TFR is influenced by age at childbearing Assume all the women only give birth to 1 child throughout their whole life, and the childbearing age is fixed at 25, what’s the TFR in 2012? ◼ The age-specific-birth-rate for age 25 is 1, and age-specific- birthrates for other ages are 0, TFR is 1. Assume all the women only give birth to 1 child throughout their whole life. In 2012 all the women aged 24 and 25 give birth to 1 child, what’s the TFR in 2012? ◼ The age-specific-birth-rates for age 24 and 25 are 1, TFR is 2
Period measures o Replacement level total fertility rate needed to ensure that a population remains constant as each set of parents can be replaced by their offspring a Equals roughly to 2 children per woman without childhood mortality a The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 births per woman for most industrialized countries a It can range from 2. 5 to 3 3 in less developed countries because of higher childhood mortality rates
Period Measures Replacement level: total fertility rate needed to ensure that a population remains constant as each set of parents can be replaced by their offspring. Equals roughly to 2 children per woman without childhood mortality. The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 births per woman for most industrialized countries. It can range from 2.5 to 3.3 in less developed countries because of higher childhood mortality rates
Cohort measures n Cohort: a group of people having similar experiences. aa birth cohort refers to a group of people born in the same period n Cohort Total fertility Rate: average number of children born per woman in a cohort by the end of their reproductive careers
Cohort Measures Cohort: a group of people having similar experiences. A birth cohort refers to a group of people born in the same period. Cohort Total Fertility Rate: average number of children born per woman in a cohort by the end of their reproductive careers
Cohort measure a Calculation of cohort tFr 15-19202425-2930-3435-3940444549* Total years/ years years years years years years fertility rate 1970-19746 137.1124.161925.5 6.20.4 2.087.5 1975-197953.01118109.1112419.2 4.20.2 2,049.5 1980-1984519110.7110.563.921.2 3.90.2 1,811.5 1985-198952.41095112.9 726.511.30.2 1,927.5 1990-19945981132115.580.032.4 5.90.3 2.035.5 1995-199952.0107.8109483.735.9 0.4 1981.5 2000-200443.7104.8114.393.042.2 8.4 0.5 2.034.5 v Cohort TFR for the cohort aged 15-19 in 1970-1974 sum of the ASFRs in the diagonal 623+1118+110.5+727+324+71+0.5)*5=19865 v the actual number of children that would be born to the 15-19 cohort in 1970-1974 by the end of their reproductive life
Cohort measure Calculation of Cohort TFR ✓ Cohort TFR for the cohort aged 15-19 in 1970-1974: ✓ sum of the ASFRs in the diagonal ✓ 62.3+111.8+110.5+72.7+32.4+7.1+0.5)*5=1986.5 ✓ the actual number of children that would be born to the 15-19 cohort in 1970-1974 by the end of their reproductive life