Ex Post/Ex Ante:The ldea 。In Ordinary Life Should I go home by 880 or local streets? Should I have bought that lottery ticket? Should you have gone to law school? 。In Employment Do we pay salesmen by the hour? Or by a commission on each sale? In The Context of Law and incentives Do we punish bad outcomes,or Inputs that produce them?
Ex Post/Ex Ante: The Idea • In Ordinary Life • Should I go home by 880 or local streets? • Should I have bought that lottery ticket? • Should you have gone to law school? • In The Context of Law and incentives • Do we punish bad outcomes, or • Inputs that produce them? • In Employment • Do we pay salesmen by the hour? • Or by a commission on each sale?
Why Punish Attempts? Why are you arresting me?The bullet hit the tree. The man I was shooting at is fine 。The tree is fine To stack an ex ante punishment on an ex post punishment ·WhyR Because we are not willing to impose an adequate ex post punishment
Why Punish Attempts? • Why are you arresting me? The bullet hit the tree. • The man I was shooting at is fine • The tree is fine • To stack an ex ante punishment on an ex post punishment • Why? • Because we are not willing to impose an adequate ex post punishment
Advantages of Ex-Post Punishment Exploits actor's private information I can monitor myself at no cost And can see and know things the external regulator cannot Rather like the advantage of an effluent fee over regulation Which is also an ex-post punishment Court can observe damage instead of guesstimating probability and damage Probably lower enforcement costs easier to spot crashes than speeders ·and a lot fewer of them
Advantages of Ex-Post Punishment • Exploits actor’s private information • I can monitor myself at no cost • And can see and know things the external regulator cannot • Rather like the advantage of an effluent fee over regulation • Which is also an ex-post punishment • Court can observe damage instead of guesstimating probability and damage • Probably lower enforcement costs • easier to spot crashes than speeders • and a lot fewer of them
Disadvantages of Ex-Post Punishment ·Neorgne taipherent,.met punis协y?deterrence Ex-post requires large punishment with low probability People are risk averse And may be judgement proof And non-monetary payments are inefficient But there is an organ shortage...(We will return to this)
Disadvantages of Ex-Post Punishment • We want to prevent, Wrong. Punishment prevents by deterrence not punish? • Ex-post requires large punishment with low probability • People are risk averse • And may be judgement proof • And non-monetary payments are inefficient • But there is an organ shortage … (We will return to this)
Why There Should Not Be Pure Ex-Ante Systems A Small ex-post punishment does not have the problems of ex-post Does have the advantages So why not always supplement ex-ante with ex-post? Are there any counter-examples?
Why There Should Not Be Pure Ex-Ante Systems • A Small ex-post punishment does not have the problems of ex-post •Does have the advantages • So why not always supplement ex-ante with ex-post? • Are there any counter-examples?