《船舶贸易与经营》课程教学资源：The Clarkson SHIPPING REVIEW & OUTLOOK.pdf_P26-P30

SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS 2.1.1 VLCC Market earnings were also affected by a decline in US import demand,which was also compounded by a number of unexpected incidents such as Summary the closure of the Motiva refinery in Texas in End-11 Sep-12 +/-this year June.However,imports to the US from West Worldscale Rates AG-West 40 Africa offered more positivity for owners,with 27 -32.5% earnings on this route peaking at an average of icensed to The AG-FarEast 6 40 -33.3% Med-UK/Cont 78 50 -35.5% $49,190/day in May. Revenue(per day) Hong Avg.Spot Earings(modern) $24.858 $6.140 -75.3% Asset Values 1 YrTC Rate (modern) $19.000 $22.000 15.8% Asset Values(Sm) NB Price (300k dwt) $99.00 s95.00 -4.0% The benchmark secondhand price for a 5-year- 5-year-old D/H $58.00 S63.00 8.6% old double hulled VLCC stood at $63m in Tonnage Supply (m.dwt) Fleet 176.0 183.3 4.2% August,down 17%y-o-y.Despite the volatile Orderbook 40.8 28.8 -29.3% market conditions.this price assessment has Fleet Developments* remained relatively steady since the start of Kong Polytechnic University Deliveries 61 33 -18.9% 2012.Meanwhile,the benchmark price for a 15 Demolition 1 -12.5% Contracting 3 300.0% year-old vessel stood at $18.3m in August, Second-Hand Sales 31 6 -71.0% down 24%y-o-y.This value may have now *2012 figures are year-to-date.%4/-based on annualised figures reached a floor,as suggested by the sale of the Market Review 1993-built "SEA GLORY"for scrap in Distribution Bangladesh in early August for just over $18m. Modern VLCC spot earnings averaged $22,169/day in the period March to August Fleet Developments is restricted: 2012,an increase of 36%compared to the same period in 2011.While this is robust growth,the A total of 7 VLCCs have been sold for scrap in the year to date,while 33 have been delivered please value falls significantly short of historical averages; earnings between 2005-2010 into the fleet.As a result,the VLCC fleet is averaged $56,041/day.Meanwhile,some now 4.2%larger in terms of dwt than at the positive sentiment was evident in 1H 2012 start of the year,standing at 600 vessels of a stemming from rising Chinese seaborne crude combined 183.3m dwt at the start of September. imports,which reached a record high of 6m bpd Meanwhile,in an illustration of the continued in April.As a result,average modern VLCC pressure on the market,just 8 VLCCs have earnings reached $36,386/day in April,the been ordered so far this year,compared to 3 in acknowledge highest monthly average since June 2010. full year 2011 and 55 in full year 2010. However,earnings began to deteriorate rapidly at the end of 02 2012 as a result of chronic Outlook the source overcapacity,weak activity levels and rising bunker prices,with average earnings eventually The VLCC orderbook has rapidly declined, plunging to $3,056/day in August. standing at 28.8m dwt at the start of September, down 40%y-o-y.Despite this,oversupply is set Tanker earnings in recent months have closely to remain an issue for the market in the short- reflected the changing,two-tiered nature of term.The sector is also expected to have to global oil trade patterns.Earnings on routes to contend with declining US imports as the the Far East reached over $40,000/day at their country continues to develop its domestic oil peak in April,while earnings on the route from production.However,the impact of a reduced the Middle East Gulf to the US only reached a number of MEG-US Gulf voyages on VLCC maximum of $15,528/day.When the market dwt demand is likely to be minimised by the began its decline,earnings on this route were growing trade from the MEG to China.At the hit particularly hard,falling to an average of same time,the ongoing upsizing from Suezmax -$10,753/day in August.While this is partly a vessels ex-WAF should provide an additional http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 reflection of the high voyage distance (and boost to VLCC dwt demand going forward,if at therefore higher exposure to bunker prices), the expense of smaller tankers. Clarkson Research Services 30 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 30 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS Market Review Modern VLCC spot earnings averaged $22,169/day in the period March to August 2012, an increase of 36% compared to the same period in 2011. While this is robust growth, the value falls significantly short of historical averages; earnings between 2005-2010 averaged $56,041/day. Meanwhile, some positive sentiment was evident in 1H 2012 stemming from rising Chinese seaborne crude imports, which reached a record high of 6m bpd in April. As a result, average modern VLCC earnings reached $36,386/day in April, the highest monthly average since June 2010. However, earnings began to deteriorate rapidly at the end of Q2 2012 as a result of chronic overcapacity, weak activity levels and rising bunker prices, with average earnings eventually plunging to $3,056/day in August. Tanker earnings in recent months have closely reflected the changing, two-tiered nature of global oil trade patterns. Earnings on routes to the Far East reached over $40,000/day at their peak in April, while earnings on the route from the Middle East Gulf to the US only reached a maximum of $15,528/day. When the market began its decline, earnings on this route were hit particularly hard, falling to an average of -$10,753/day in August. While this is partly a reflection of the high voyage distance (and therefore higher exposure to bunker prices), earnings were also affected by a decline in US import demand, which was also compounded by a number of unexpected incidents such as the closure of the Motiva refinery in Texas in June. However, imports to the US from West Africa offered more positivity for owners, with earnings on this route peaking at an average of $49,190/day in May. Asset Values The benchmark secondhand price for a 5-yearold double hulled VLCC stood at $63m in August, down 17% y-o-y. Despite the volatile market conditions, this price assessment has remained relatively steady since the start of 2012. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for a 15 year-old vessel stood at $18.3m in August, down 24% y-o-y. This value may have now reached a floor, as suggested by the sale of the 1993-built “SEA GLORY” for scrap in Bangladesh in early August for just over $18m. Fleet Developments A total of 7 VLCCs have been sold for scrap in the year to date, while 33 have been delivered into the fleet. As a result, the VLCC fleet is now 4.2% larger in terms of dwt than at the start of the year, standing at 600 vessels of a combined 183.3m dwt at the start of September. Meanwhile, in an illustration of the continued pressure on the market, just 8 VLCCs have been ordered so far this year, compared to 3 in full year 2011 and 55 in full year 2010. Outlook The VLCC orderbook has rapidly declined, standing at 28.8m dwt at the start of September, down 40% y-o-y. Despite this, oversupply is set to remain an issue for the market in the shortterm. The sector is also expected to have to contend with declining US imports as the country continues to develop its domestic oil production. However, the impact of a reduced number of MEG-US Gulf voyages on VLCC dwt demand is likely to be minimised by the growing trade from the MEG to China. At the same time, the ongoing upsizing from Suezmax vessels ex-WAF should provide an additional boost to VLCC dwt demand going forward, if at the expense of smaller tankers. 2.1.1 VLCC Market End -11 Sep-12 +/- this year Worldscale Rates AG-West 40 27 -32.5% AG-FarEast 60 40 -33.3% Med-UK/Cont 78 50 -35.5% Revenue (per day) Avg.Spot Earnings (modern) $24,858 $6,140 -75.3% 1 Yr TC Rate (modern) $19,000 $22,000 15.8% Asset Values ($m) NB Price (300k dwt) $99.00 $95.00 -4.0% 5-year-old D/H $58.00 $63.00 8.6% Tonnage Supply (m.dwt) Fleet 176.0 183.3 4.2% Orderbook 40.8 28.8 -29.3% Fleet Developments* Deliveries 61 33 -18.9% Demolition 12 7 -12.5% Contracting 3 8 300.0% Second-Hand Sales 31 6 -71.0% * 2012 figures are year-to-date, % +/- based on annualised figures Summary Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS 2.1.2 Suezmax Market Asset Values The benchmark price for a 5-year-old Suezmax Summary vessel stood at $45m in August,a similar level End-11 Sep-12 +/-this year Worldscale Rates to the $44.5m recorded in March 2012,and W.Africa-USGulf 93 55 -40.5% down considerably from $52m in August 2011. Med-Med. 115 58 50.0% Meanwhile,exemplifying both the reluctance of icensed to The Revenue (per day) Avg.Spot Earnings (modern) $34.926 $5.208 -85.1% owners to invest in the Suezmax sector and the 1 year TC Rate (modern) $16.000 $18.500 15.6% attempts by yards to attract new orders,the 3 year TC Rate (modern) 520.000 $21,500 7.5% benchmark price of a newbuild 157,000 dwt Asset Values(Sm) NB Price $60.50 $58.00 4.1% vessel was assessed at $58m in August,the 5-year-old D/H $47.00 S45.00 -4.3 lowest level since Q1 2004. 10-year-old S/H $32.00 $31.00 3.1% Tonnage Supply(m.dwt) Fleet 68.5 71.4 4.3% Fleet Developments Orderbook 20.0 13.8 -31.0% Fleet Changes The Suezmax fleet stood at 462 vessels of a Kong Polytechnic University. Deliveries 42 3 28.6% Demolition 18 237.5% combined 71.4m dwt at the start of September, Contracting 8 3 -83.9% up 5.9%y-o-y in terms of dwt.Weak market Second-Hand Sales 10 5 -25.0% conditions have effectively stifled orders for *2012 figures are year-to-date, new Suezmax tankers,with only 3 contracts Distribution Market Review placed in the year to date,compared with 28 in full year 2011.However,oversupply is likely to In the last six months,Suezmax spot earnings remain an issue going forward,as the orderbook have been greatly dependent on shifts in is still equivalent to 19%of the fleet in terms of is restricted: demand requirements in West Africa (WAF) dwt,with fleet capacity projected to grow by a and the Med,and on attempts by owners to further 5.6%in 2013. please manage the severe level of oversupply between the two regions.As a result,average modern Outlook Suezmax spot earnings have been volatile, peaking at $28,228/day in May when there was Suezmax dwt demand is projected to increase ember strong demand in WAF and a tight tonnage list by 2.4%y-o-y in 2012,lagging substantially in the Med,and falling to a low of $7,546/day behind the projected growth of 6.6%in the in August.Overall,Suezmax spot earnings Suezmax fleet this year,and as a result this averaged $18,792/day between March and sector is likely to remain under pressure in the 'to acknowledge August 2012,compared to historical average short-term.The Suezmax market is also earnings of $47,736/day between 2005-10. expected to continue to lose market share to VLCCs on the WAF-North America route. However,Suezmax vessels have in turn the source Suezmax earnings have been weakest on routes ex-WAF,particularly towards the US,with benefited slightly from upsizing on the Caribs- earnings on the WAF-USAC route averaging North America route.While the volume of just $14,262/day over the last six month period. crude carried on Suezmaxes on this route is This has partly stemmed from oversupply in the projected to rise by 33%this year to 1.2m bpd, WAF region,not only due to an abundance of the short distance involved on this trade means Suezmax tankers,but also of VLCCs,which that this rise is not expected to be enough to have increasingly vied for transatlantic cargoes. offset the loss of WAF-US cargoes.Meanwhile, The Suezmax market has also been affected by the health of the other major Suezmax route,the a decline in WAF exports to North America, AG-Med,largely depends on OECD European which are currently projected to fall by 21% oil demand,which is projected to fall by 2%y-o y-o-y in 2012.Meanwhile,average Suezmax -y in 2012.It remains to be seen whether any earnings on the AG-China route averaged economic recovery in the Eurozone next year $22,728/day over the last 6 months,with robust will stimulate additional oil demand in Europe, http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Chinese demand producing a stark contrast and contribute to a less negative short-term between Suezmax earnings either side of Suez. outlook for the Suezmax market. Clarkson Research Services 32 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 32 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS Market Review In the last six months, Suezmax spot earnings have been greatly dependent on shifts in demand requirements in West Africa (WAF) and the Med, and on attempts by owners to manage the severe level of oversupply between the two regions. As a result, average modern Suezmax spot earnings have been volatile, peaking at $28,228/day in May when there was strong demand in WAF and a tight tonnage list in the Med, and falling to a low of $7,546/day in August. Overall, Suezmax spot earnings averaged $18,792/day between March and August 2012, compared to historical average earnings of $47,736/day between 2005-10. Suezmax earnings have been weakest on routes ex-WAF, particularly towards the US, with earnings on the WAF-USAC route averaging just $14,262/day over the last six month period. This has partly stemmed from oversupply in the WAF region, not only due to an abundance of Suezmax tankers, but also of VLCCs, which have increasingly vied for transatlantic cargoes. The Suezmax market has also been affected by a decline in WAF exports to North America, which are currently projected to fall by 21% y-o-y in 2012. Meanwhile, average Suezmax earnings on the AG-China route averaged $22,728/day over the last 6 months, with robust Chinese demand producing a stark contrast between Suezmax earnings either side of Suez. Asset Values The benchmark price for a 5-year-old Suezmax vessel stood at $45m in August, a similar level to the $44.5m recorded in March 2012, and down considerably from $52m in August 2011. Meanwhile, exemplifying both the reluctance of owners to invest in the Suezmax sector and the attempts by yards to attract new orders, the benchmark price of a newbuild 157,000 dwt vessel was assessed at $58m in August, the lowest level since Q1 2004. Fleet Developments The Suezmax fleet stood at 462 vessels of a combined 71.4m dwt at the start of September, up 5.9% y-o-y in terms of dwt. Weak market conditions have effectively stifled orders for new Suezmax tankers, with only 3 contracts placed in the year to date, compared with 28 in full year 2011. However, oversupply is likely to remain an issue going forward, as the orderbook is still equivalent to 19% of the fleet in terms of dwt, with fleet capacity projected to grow by a further 5.6% in 2013. Outlook Suezmax dwt demand is projected to increase by 2.4% y-o-y in 2012, lagging substantially behind the projected growth of 6.6% in the Suezmax fleet this year, and as a result this sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short-term. The Suezmax market is also expected to continue to lose market share to VLCCs on the WAF-North America route. However, Suezmax vessels have in turn benefited slightly from upsizing on the CaribsNorth America route. While the volume of crude carried on Suezmaxes on this route is projected to rise by 33% this year to 1.2m bpd, the short distance involved on this trade means that this rise is not expected to be enough to offset the loss of WAF-US cargoes. Meanwhile, the health of the other major Suezmax route, the AG-Med, largely depends on OECD European oil demand, which is projected to fall by 2% y-o -y in 2012. It remains to be seen whether any economic recovery in the Eurozone next year will stimulate additional oil demand in Europe, and contribute to a less negative short-term outlook for the Suezmax market. 2.1.2 Suezmax Market End -11 Sep-12 +/- this year Worldscale Rates W.Africa-USGulf 93 55 -40.5% Med.-Med. 115 58 -50.0% Revenue (per day) Avg.Spot Earnings (modern) $34,926 $5,208 -85.1% 1 year TC Rate (modern) $16,000 $18,500 15.6% 3 year TC Rate (modern) $20,000 $21,500 7.5% Asset Values ($m) NB Price $60.50 $58.00 -4.1% 5-year-old D/H $47.00 $45.00 -4.3% 10-year-old S/H $32.00 $31.00 -3.1% Tonnage Supply (m.dwt) Fleet 68.5 71.4 4.3% Orderbook 20.0 13.8 -31.0% Fleet Changes* Deliveries 42 36 28.6% Demolition 8 18 237.5% Contracting 28 3 -83.9% Second-Hand Sales 10 5 -25.0% * 2012 figures are year-to-date, % +/- based on annualised figures Summary Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS 2.1.3 Aframax Market down of both production and refinery capacity in the Caribbean,and also caused vessels to Summary ballast away from the region.This led to increased capacity in other areas,exerting End-11 Sep-12 +/-this year Worldscale Rates downward pressure on rates on other routes. AG-East 118 115 -2.1% Med-Med 155 78 -50.0% Med-USAC 85 -32.0% Asset Values Caribs-USGulf 130 9 -28.8% icensed to The Hong Revenue (per day) At the start of September 2012,the benchmark Avg.Spot Earnings(modern) $27.235 $14.037 .48590 1 Yr TC Rate (modem) $13,500 $13.000 -3.7% price for a 114,000 dwt Aframax newbuild Asset Values ($m) stood at $49m.This represents a drop of 7.6% NB Price $52.50 $49.00 -6.7% 5-year-old D/H $35.00 $30.50 -12.9% y-o-y,a slightly slower rate of decline than has 10-year-old S/H $20.00 $18.00 -10.0% been recorded in the larger crude vessel sectors. Tonnage Supply(m.dwt) The secondhand value for a 5 year-old double Fleet 96.6 97.4 0.9% Orderbook 9.4 6.3 -33.0% hulled Aframax vessel has also decreased. Fleet Changes* falling by 17.6%y-o-y to stand at $30m. Kong Polytechnic University. Deliveries 59 33 -16.1% Demolition 27 个 5009% Contracting Second-Hand Sales 48 16.7% Fleet Developments .5.60 2012 figures are year-to-date.+based on anmualised figures The Aframax crude fleet is projected to increase by 3.5%y-o-y in full year 2012 to total 96.9m Distribution Market Review dwt by the end of the year.While this is a The earnings environment in the Aframax slower rate of growth than in the larger crude sector over the last six months has remained at vessel sectors,it is still significant and is likely is restricted: depressed levels.In the period between March to exert further pressure on rates,given that any 2012 and August 2012,modern Aframax spot significant increase in available cargoes and earnings averaged $15,056/day,virtually charterer sentiment seems unlikely in the short- please unchanged compared to the previous six month term.There have now been 27 crude Aframax period and down 70%on average earnings tankers scrapped in the year to date,with weak during the boom of 2008. sentiment and fears over prospects in key demand areas remaining prevalent in the market The Aframax market lost a significant so far this year. proportion of its trade last year after Libyan crude exports fell to just 0.4m bpd.However, Outlook acknowledge Libyan production has recovered firmly,and exports are projected to increase to 1.1m bpd in Trade volumes transported by the Aframax full year 2012,almost entirely to the benefit of sector are projected to decline by 2.6%y-o-y in full year 2012,while Aframax crude the source the Aframax market in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile,the Aframax market in the Baltic deadweight demand is projected to decline by a found some support in March this year with the faster rate of 3.5%y-o-y.Ultimately,the start-up of Russia's crude export terminal in Ust combination of continued weakness in demand Luga.The low cost associated with exporting fundamentals within the Eurozone,coupled via the new terminal led to a reduction in with the overcapacity currently present in the volumes transported through the Druzhba Aframax fleet,is likely to limit the extent of pipeline,benefitting tanker owners in the any short-term gains that may occur in the region.However,the sector as a whole has also remainder of this year.Aframax fleet capacity come under pressure from a number of is projected to grow further this year,however structural and unexpected challenges.The trend the expected rate of fleet growth is considerably towards vessel upsizing has led to Suezmaxes slower than in recent years.While this may taking increasing market share from Aframaxes, offer some positivity for owners looking into particularly in the Caribbean.Furthermore,the the longer-term,in the short-term the uneven http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 sector was affected at the end of August by supply/demand balance is likely to mean that Hurricane Isaac,which led to a significant shut the sector remains under pressure. Clarkson Research Services 34 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 34 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS Market Review The earnings environment in the Aframax sector over the last six months has remained at depressed levels. In the period between March 2012 and August 2012, modern Aframax spot earnings averaged $15,056/day, virtually unchanged compared to the previous six month period and down 70% on average earnings during the boom of 2008. The Aframax market lost a significant proportion of its trade last year after Libyan crude exports fell to just 0.4m bpd. However, Libyan production has recovered firmly, and exports are projected to increase to 1.1m bpd in full year 2012, almost entirely to the benefit of the Aframax market in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the Aframax market in the Baltic found some support in March this year with the start-up of Russia’s crude export terminal in Ust Luga. The low cost associated with exporting via the new terminal led to a reduction in volumes transported through the Druzhba pipeline, benefitting tanker owners in the region. However, the sector as a whole has also come under pressure from a number of structural and unexpected challenges. The trend towards vessel upsizing has led to Suezmaxes taking increasing market share from Aframaxes, particularly in the Caribbean. Furthermore, the sector was affected at the end of August by Hurricane Isaac, which led to a significant shut down of both production and refinery capacity in the Caribbean, and also caused vessels to ballast away from the region. This led to increased capacity in other areas, exerting downward pressure on rates on other routes. Asset Values At the start of September 2012, the benchmark price for a 114,000 dwt Aframax newbuild stood at $49m. This represents a drop of 7.6% y-o-y, a slightly slower rate of decline than has been recorded in the larger crude vessel sectors. The secondhand value for a 5 year-old double hulled Aframax vessel has also decreased, falling by 17.6% y-o-y to stand at $30m. Fleet Developments The Aframax crude fleet is projected to increase by 3.5% y-o-y in full year 2012 to total 96.9m dwt by the end of the year. While this is a slower rate of growth than in the larger crude vessel sectors, it is still significant and is likely to exert further pressure on rates, given that any significant increase in available cargoes and charterer sentiment seems unlikely in the shortterm. There have now been 27 crude Aframax tankers scrapped in the year to date, with weak sentiment and fears over prospects in key demand areas remaining prevalent in the market so far this year. Outlook Trade volumes transported by the Aframax sector are projected to decline by 2.6% y-o-y in full year 2012, while Aframax crude deadweight demand is projected to decline by a faster rate of 3.5% y-o-y. Ultimately, the combination of continued weakness in demand fundamentals within the Eurozone, coupled with the overcapacity currently present in the Aframax fleet, is likely to limit the extent of any short-term gains that may occur in the remainder of this year. Aframax fleet capacity is projected to grow further this year, however the expected rate of fleet growth is considerably slower than in recent years. While this may offer some positivity for owners looking into the longer-term, in the short-term the uneven supply/demand balance is likely to mean that the sector remains under pressure. 2.1.3 Aframax Market End -11 Sep-12 +/- this year Worldscale Rates AG-East 118 115 -2.1% Med-Med 155 78 -50.0% Med-USAC 125 85 -32.0% Caribs-USGulf 130 93 -28.8% Revenue (per day) Avg.Spot Earnings (modern) $27,235 $14,037 -48.5% 1 Yr TC Rate (modern) $13,500 $13,000 -3.7% Asset Values ($m) NB Price $52.50 $49.00 -6.7% 5-year-old D/H $35.00 $30.50 -12.9% 10-year-old S/H $20.00 $18.00 -10.0% Tonnage Supply (m.dwt) Fleet 96.6 97.4 0.9% Orderbook 9.4 6.3 -33.0% Fleet Changes* Deliveries 59 33 -16.1% Demolition 27 27 50.0% Contracting 9 7 16.7% Second-Hand Sales 48 27 -15.6% * 2012 figures are year-to-date, % +/- based on annualised figures Summary Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304