《船舶贸易与经营》课程教学资源：The Clarkson SHIPPING REVIEW & OUTLOOK.pdf_P21-P25

SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK 1.7 Containership Market Outlook Container Fleet Year End Forecast ('000TEU) 2009 2010 2011 20122013 The last six months have again seen depressed Feeder 739 735 735 727 716 containership charter earnings,although key (<1,000TEU) -1.5% 0.5% 0.1% -1.1% -1.4% box freight markets have witnessed Intermediate 3.549 3,594 3,615 3,508 3.494 improvement in 2012 to date.Over the last half (1-3.000TEU) -1.2% 1.3% 0.6% -3.0% -0.4% year,boxship owners have continued to be Deep Sea 8.662 9,871 10.978 12.206 13.500 icensed to The faced with charter rates close to subsistence (3.000TEU+) 9.9% 14.0%11.2% 11.2%10.6% levels,despite some upward movement in the Other Container- 2,187 2,168 2,157 2.191 2,218 larger size sectors.After a period of dramatic Capable vessels -0.8% -0.8% -0.5% 1.6% 1.2% decline in freight rates in 2011,major operators Total Container 15,1361636917,485 18,63219,928 Fleet ('000 TEU) 4.9% 8.1% 6.8% 6.6% 7.0% have managed to secure increased levels on the key mainlane trades,although,with the 3%of Table 1.6 Containership Fleet the fleet idle dominated by charter owner tonnage,this has not yet provided any remains limited,with 46 containerships of significant impetus into the charter market. around 0.26m TEU ordered in the year to date. Kong Polytechnic University. Global box trade growth is expected to reach The total orderbook now represents 22%of just under 5%in 2012,slightly outpaced by existing capacity and continues to shrink.The overall capacity growth of around 7%.With the dramatic trade downturn of 2009 created developed economies still under pressure,most capacity oversupply which is still being worked of the trade growth continues to been away Distribution through,although slow steaming of a large from the main east-west trade lanes,while the number of services is now absorbing the surfeit of very large ships being delivered into majority of the surplus along with the 0.5m the fleet is still creating a wave of 'cascading' TEU still idle.The key issue going forward is is restricted: of capacity,generating further pressure on the mis-match of the projected supply growth, charter market tonnage but also freight rate dominated by very large ships,with the demand volatility according to the rate of redeployment. expansion dominated by non-mainlane trades, please where medium and smaller tonnage is generally Containership Demand deployed through 'cascading'. mber Following an expansion in global box trade of Containership Outlook 7%in 2011 it is projected that trade will grow by a further 5%in 2012,a level limited by the The short-term outlook has limited upside. slower growth of the mainlane trades.Volumes Although improved box freight rates provide a to acknowledge on the peak-leg of the Asia-Europe trade better base for chartering demand,on a global contracted by 3%y-o-y in the first seven basis,supply expansion is projected to outpace months of the year,with the European demand growth this year,and carriers will have economies under severe pressure.But away to continue to work hard at capacity the source from the mainlanes,box trade continues to management in the face of ongoing deliveries to grow relatively steadily.On the north-south keep rates at or near today's levels.Key parts of trades,growth of around 7%is expected this the freight market have improved in 2012,but it year,as imports to the southern hemisphere still looks as if it will take a while for the continue to increase rapidly.Intra-regional charter and asset markets to see significant volumes are also projected to grow by 7%in improvements,with further demand growth full year 2012. over time required to balance some of the flow of 'cascaded'capacity.Progress is still likely to Containership Supply be gradual,and substantial risks to the demand side remain.Nevertheless in today's As of 1st September 2012 the containership constrained financing and fleet numbered 5,134 vessels aggreagting ordering environment,there also remains the question of 16.1m TEU,up 5%since start 2012.It is whether the sector might begin to see a deficit http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 estimated that deliveries will total 1.4m TEU in of supply in medium and smaller sized capacity full year 2012,and again in 2013.Contracting over the longer-term. Clarkson Research Services 2 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 24 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK The last six months have again seen depressed containership charter earnings, although key box freight markets have witnessed improvement in 2012 to date. Over the last half year, boxship owners have continued to be faced with charter rates close to subsistence levels, despite some upward movement in the larger size sectors. After a period of dramatic decline in freight rates in 2011, major operators have managed to secure increased levels on the key mainlane trades, although, with the 3% of the fleet idle dominated by charter owner tonnage, this has not yet provided any significant impetus into the charter market. Global box trade growth is expected to reach just under 5% in 2012, slightly outpaced by overall capacity growth of around 7%. With the developed economies still under pressure, most of the trade growth continues to been away from the main east-west trade lanes, while the surfeit of very large ships being delivered into the fleet is still creating a wave of ‘cascading’ of capacity, generating further pressure on charter market tonnage but also freight rate volatility according to the rate of redeployment. Containership Demand Following an expansion in global box trade of 7% in 2011 it is projected that trade will grow by a further 5% in 2012, a level limited by the slower growth of the mainlane trades. Volumes on the peak-leg of the Asia-Europe trade contracted by 3% y-o-y in the first seven months of the year, with the European economies under severe pressure. But away from the mainlanes, box trade continues to grow relatively steadily. On the north-south trades, growth of around 7% is expected this year, as imports to the southern hemisphere continue to increase rapidly. Intra-regional volumes are also projected to grow by 7% in full year 2012. Containership Supply As of 1st September 2012 the containership fleet numbered 5,134 vessels aggreagting 16.1m TEU, up 5% since start 2012. It is estimated that deliveries will total 1.4m TEU in full year 2012, and again in 2013. Contracting remains limited, with 46 containerships of around 0.26m TEU ordered in the year to date. The total orderbook now represents 22% of existing capacity and continues to shrink. The dramatic trade downturn of 2009 created capacity oversupply which is still being worked through, although slow steaming of a large number of services is now absorbing the majority of the surplus along with the 0.5m TEU still idle. The key issue going forward is the mis-match of the projected supply growth, dominated by very large ships, with the demand expansion dominated by non-mainlane trades, where medium and smaller tonnage is generally deployed through ‘cascading’. Containership Outlook The short-term outlook has limited upside. Although improved box freight rates provide a better base for chartering demand, on a global basis, supply expansion is projected to outpace demand growth this year, and carriers will have to continue to work hard at capacity management in the face of ongoing deliveries to keep rates at or near today’s levels. Key parts of the freight market have improved in 2012, but it still looks as if it will take a while for the charter and asset markets to see significant improvements, with further demand growth over time required to balance some of the flow of ‘cascaded’ capacity. Progress is still likely to be gradual, and substantial risks to the demand side remain. Nevertheless in today’s constrained financing and ordering environment, there also remains the question of whether the sector might begin to see a deficit of supply in medium and smaller sized capacity over the longer-term. 1.7 Containership Market Outlook Table 1.6 Containership Fleet Year End 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feeder 739 735 735 727 716 (<1,000 TEU) -1.5% -0.5% -0.1% -1.1% -1.4% Intermediate 3,549 3,594 3,615 3,508 3,494 (1-3,000 TEU) -1.2% 1.3% 0.6% -3.0% -0.4% Deep Sea 8,662 9,871 10,978 12,206 13,500 (3,000 TEU +) 9.9% 14.0% 11.2% 11.2% 10.6% 2,187 2,168 2,157 2,191 2,218 -0.8% -0.8% -0.5% 1.6% 1.2% 15,136 16,369 17,485 18,632 19,928 4.9% 8.1% 6.8% 6.6% 7.0% Other Container - Capable vessels Total Container Fleet ('000 TEU) Container Fleet ('000 TEU) Forecast Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Average Values .The containership market 2002-2011 Firm has deteriorated marginally Soft over the last six months. and remains firmly in the Recession red. Our swing-o-meter 米 now stands at -54%below trend,down from-50%in Depression -20% +20% March 2012 icensed to The Hong 40% +40呢 Bonanza .All featured size ranges 60 +60% ap declined over the last six months on average,largely -80% +80% as a result of weakening asset prices.Second-hand prices have come under Where are we in the Container Cycle further pressure in recent Kong Polytechnic University. Market 2002-11 Mar '12 Sep'12 months,with values now Ship by Type Rate Average Market dift from Markets diff.from Last Six Months Indicator Value Rate Average Rate Average standing at levels up to 1 year te (S/day) 7.311 4.250 -43% 4.400 -41毫 2%Bit Better 60%below trend. 725 teu geared 10 vear old (Sm.) 10.0 6.0 .409g 4.5 -559% -15%Worse .42 8毫 -7%Bit Worse I vear tic (S/dav) 0.025 5200 -48% 5.500 -45 3%Bit Better .Charter rates have been 1,000 teu geared 10 year old (Sm 135 75 -449 6.0 56 -Worse 50% Bit Worse steady,with a marginal y 14,159 620 6.200 1,700 teu geared 19.1 10.5 9.0 improvement in some sec- tors.However,they remain year tle (S/d 5,634 6.230 60 000 teu gearl 10 vear old (Sm) 23 68 significantly low and well 89 I vear te (S/dav) 20,135 7.00L 6,750 below long-term average 2,750 teu gearle 10 vear old (sm 28.5 14.5 14.0 51% bu Worse levels. 57% 59 Bit Worse Container Charter Market Average 55 54 -Worse Figure 1.7.1 The Container Market Containership Charter Rates Containership Deliveries ,000/d eu of fleet 35 1.6 18% ■■■■■■ year to date 1650-1750TEU Distribution is restricted:please remember to acknowledge the source. 4 16% 30 14% 25 2 ■■■■ 12% 1000-1100TEU 0 20 10% 0.8 8% 0.6 of the fleet 6% 0.4 4% 700-750TEU Deliveries 2% 0 0.0 0% 显会雷西品8会原昌昌气常点 http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 每每每每每每每每每每每 Source:Clarkson Research Services Source:Clarkson Research Services Figure 1.7.2 Figure 1.7.3 Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 25

Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 25 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Figure 1.7.2 Figure 1.7.1 The Container Market Figure 1.7.3 • The containership market has deteriorated marginally over the last six months, and remains firmly in the red. Our swing-o-meter now stands at –54% below trend, down from –50% in March 2012. • All featured size ranges declined over the last six months on average, largely as a result of weakening asset prices. Second-hand prices have come under further pressure in recent months, with values now standing at levels up to 60% below trend. • Charter rates have been steady, with a marginal improvement in some sectors. However, they remain significantly low and well below long-term average levels. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 $ ,000/d Source: Clarkson Research Services Containership Charter Rates 1000-1100 TEU 1650-1750 TEU 700-750 TEU 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 m teu % of fleet Source: Clarkson Research Services Containership Deliveries Deliveries % of the fleet year to date +80% -20% -60% -40% +20% +40% +60% 0 -80% Average Values, 2002-2011 -54% Depression Recession Soft Firm Boom Bonanza Zap! Where are we in the Container Cycle ? Market 2002-11 Ship by Type Rate Average Market % diff. from Market % diff. from Indicator Value Rate Average Rate Average 1 year t/c ($/day) 7,511 4,250 -43% 4,400 -41% 2% Bit Better 10 year old ($m.) 10.0 6.0 -40% 4.5 -55% -15% Worse -42% -48% -7% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 10,025 5,200 -48% 5,500 -45% 3% Bit Better 10 year old ($m.) 13.5 7.5 -44% 6.0 -56% -11% Worse -46% -50% -4% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 14,159 6,250 -56% 6,200 -56% 0% Same 10 year old ($m.) 19.1 10.5 -45% 9.0 -53% -8% Bit Worse -50% -55% -4% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 15,634 6,250 -60% 6,400 -59% 1% Same 10 year old ($m.) 22.3 11.5 -48% 9.0 -60% -11% Worse -54% -59% -5% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 20,135 7,000 -65% 6,750 -66% -1% Bit Worse 10 year old ($m.) 28.5 14.5 -49% 14.0 -51% -2% Bit Worse -57% -59% -1% Bit Worse Container Charter Market Average -50% -54% -4% Bit Worse 725 teu geared Sep' 12 Last Six Months Mar '12 2,750 teu gearless 2,000 teu gearless 1,700 teu geared 1,000 teu geared Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS 2.1 OIL TANKERS pushed up OPEC production levels.Secondly, oil production in non-OPEC countries, Weighted tanker spot earnings remain at particularly in the US and Russia,has also depressed levels,averaging just $14,157/day in increased in this period,which has contributed the six months to end-August 2012(down 1.4% to keeping the market (nominally)oversupplied. on the previous six month average).Earnings have varied substantially during this period, Global seaborne crude trade is projected to falling 37%from $16,338/day in May to just reach 37.4m bpd in 2012,up 2.0%y-o-y.This icensed to The Hong $10,287/day in August,an eleven month low. is slightly above the average growth rate of VLCC and Suezmax earnings were the first to crude oil trade of 1.2%per annum in 2001- begin to decline in June,with Aframax earnings 2010.Overall,crude tanker deadweight demand starting to decrease in July.The overarching oil is expected to increase by 1.7%y-o-y this year. supply story of the year so far has been the Meanwhile,the crude tanker fleet is expected to implementation of US and EU sanctions against experience another year of firm growth.Current Iran,which has significantly reduced Iranian projections suggest the fleet will grow by 6.3% y-o-y this year in terms of dwt,after increasing Kong Polytechnic University. crude production from an estimated 3.6m bpd in 2011 to 2.9m bpd in July 2012.On the demand by 6.9%last year.This is significantly faster side,European oil demand has plummeted this growth than that of dwt demand,so oversupply year as the sovereign debt crisis has stifled is likely to continue to affect the market. growth.However,demand for crude has remained strong in China and South Korea, The seaborne trade in oil products is expected Distribution while in Japan,crude and products demand has to grow by 2.5%y-o-y in 2012,while the active been boosted by the closure of the country's product tanker fleet is projected to increase by 3.5%y-o-y.Although supply growth still nuclear reactors last year. is restricted: outpaces demand growth,the differential has The benchmark 1 year timecharter rate for a narrowed significantly relative to the gap during 2008-10,potentially minimising the rate of please modern VLCC firmed slightly in Q2 2012 to average $26,000/day in June,the highest level growth of the current levels of surplus capacity. since June 2011.However,by comparison, ember between 2000-2010,the benchmark 1 year THE CRUDE TANKER MARKET timecharter rate averaged $47,588/day, exemplifying the current weak state of the Ship Types Load areas market.Meanwhile.the average rate for the first eight months of the year stood at $22,322/ VLCC TANKER FLEET day.This represents a decline of 19%y-o-y. >200.000DWT 600 SHIPS OF 183.3 M.DWT 'to acknowledge the source In the International Energy Agency's ARABIAN GULF WEST AFRICA September Oil Market Report,it was estimated NORIH SEA MED. that global oil demand would average 89.8m bpd in 2012,an increase of 0.8m bpd compared to 2011.Growth in oil demand remains focused COMBINED SUEZMAX CARRIERS in emerging nations.Robust increases in TANKER FLEEI 41 SHIPS OF MED demand are expected in China and India,as 5.8 M.DWT 120200000 WT 71.4 M.DW NORTH SEA well as in other developing economies in Asia and South America.The growth in demand in these nations is projected to offset the expected NORTH SEA MED. losses in the OECD,particularly Europe. RABIAN GULF AFRAMAX SLACK SEA Global oil supply reached 90.8m bpd in August TANKER FLEET CHINA 80-120,000DWT 2012,an increase of 2%y-o-y.A number of 913 SHIPS OF 97.4 M.DWT http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 factors have caused this increase.Firstly,the combination of returning Libyan production and an increase in Saudi output in IH 2012 has Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 29

Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 29 SHIPPING SECTOR REPORTS Weighted tanker spot earnings remain at depressed levels, averaging just $14,157/day in the six months to end-August 2012 (down 1.4% on the previous six month average). Earnings have varied substantially during this period, falling 37% from $16,338/day in May to just $10,287/day in August, an eleven month low. VLCC and Suezmax earnings were the first to begin to decline in June, with Aframax earnings starting to decrease in July. The overarching oil supply story of the year so far has been the implementation of US and EU sanctions against Iran, which has significantly reduced Iranian crude production from an estimated 3.6m bpd in 2011 to 2.9m bpd in July 2012. On the demand side, European oil demand has plummeted this year as the sovereign debt crisis has stifled growth. However, demand for crude has remained strong in China and South Korea, while in Japan, crude and products demand has been boosted by the closure of the country’s nuclear reactors last year. The benchmark 1 year timecharter rate for a modern VLCC firmed slightly in Q2 2012 to average $26,000/day in June, the highest level since June 2011. However, by comparison, between 2000-2010, the benchmark 1 year timecharter rate averaged $47,588/day, exemplifying the current weak state of the market. Meanwhile. the average rate for the first eight months of the year stood at $22,322/ day. This represents a decline of 19% y-o-y. In the International Energy Agency’s September Oil Market Report, it was estimated that global oil demand would average 89.8m bpd in 2012, an increase of 0.8m bpd compared to 2011. Growth in oil demand remains focused in emerging nations. Robust increases in demand are expected in China and India, as well as in other developing economies in Asia and South America. The growth in demand in these nations is projected to offset the expected losses in the OECD, particularly Europe. Global oil supply reached 90.8m bpd in August 2012, an increase of 2% y-o-y. A number of factors have caused this increase. Firstly, the combination of returning Libyan production and an increase in Saudi output in 1H 2012 has pushed up OPEC production levels. Secondly, oil production in non-OPEC countries, particularly in the US and Russia, has also increased in this period, which has contributed to keeping the market (nominally) oversupplied. Global seaborne crude trade is projected to reach 37.4m bpd in 2012, up 2.0% y-o-y. This is slightly above the average growth rate of crude oil trade of 1.2% per annum in 2001- 2010. Overall, crude tanker deadweight demand is expected to increase by 1.7% y-o-y this year. Meanwhile, the crude tanker fleet is expected to experience another year of firm growth. Current projections suggest the fleet will grow by 6.3% y-o-y this year in terms of dwt, after increasing by 6.9% last year. This is significantly faster growth than that of dwt demand, so oversupply is likely to continue to affect the market. The seaborne trade in oil products is expected to grow by 2.5% y-o-y in 2012, while the active product tanker fleet is projected to increase by 3.5% y-o-y. Although supply growth still outpaces demand growth, the differential has narrowed significantly relative to the gap during 2008-10, potentially minimising the rate of growth of the current levels of surplus capacity. 2.1 OIL & TANKERS THE CRUDE TANKER MARKET Ship Types Load areas VLCC TANKER FLEET >200,000 DWT 600 SHIPS OF 183.3 M. DWT SUEZMAX TANKER FLEET 120-200,000 DWT 462 SHIPS OF 71.4 M. DWT COMBINED CARRIERS 41 SHIPS OF 5.8 M. DWT ARABIAN GULF WEST AFRICA RED SEA NORTH SEA MED. MED. WEST AFRICA BLACK SEA NORTH SEA NORTH SEA MED. CARIBBEAN ARABIAN GULF S.E. ASIA BLACK SEA CHINA AFRAMAX TANKER FLEET 80-120,000 DWT 913 SHIPS OF 97.4 M. DWT Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304