《船舶贸易与经营》课程教学资源：The Clarkson SHIPPING REVIEW & OUTLOOK.pdf_P11-P15

SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK 1.4 The Demolition Market single hull vessels and the demanding standards of tanker charterers.About 40%of this As the freight market has weakened in 2012, demolition was single hull tankers,reducing the the level of demolition activity has picked up. fleet to 11.6m dwt,down from 15.8m dwt six By the end of August,38.6m dwt of ships had months ago.The seven VLCCs scrapped been scrapped,compared to 40.6m dwt in the averaged just 21 years old and Suezmax and whole of 2011.On an annualised basis,this Aframax tankers a little over 21 years.In icensed to The represents an increase of 43%y-o-y.The contrast the products tankers demolished pattern of demolition by region was broadly averaged over 25 years. similar to previous years,with India and Bangladesh each accounting for about 25%of Other Ship Demolition purchased tonnage (about 10m dwt each)in the first eight months of 2012,followed by China Demolition of containerships has also edged with 8.1m dwt and Pakistan with 6.1m dwt.If upwards,with 2.9m dwt scrapped up to August, nothing else this proves that the demolition compared with 1.2m dwt in 2011.Total industry is enormously flexible,responding to demolition of specialised tonnage up to August Kong Polytechnic University. movements in prices.Demolition prices have was pretty similar to levels in 2011. not been too seriously affected by the flood of tonnage into the market,with tankers fetching Demolition Outlook around $415/ldt and dry cargo vessels about $390,both about 14%down on the start of Demolition is up firmly in 2012,as the market 2012.So far weakening steel prices have not clears out overage tonnage and comes to grips had much impact. with the combination of low earnings and more waiting time for old and unattractive vessels. Distribution is restricted: Bulk Carrier Demolition There is still some elderly tonnage to remove, but as the age profile of the world fleet shows Given the appalling level of freight rates,it is (see below),the backlog of these ships is quite please no surprise that bulk carrier demolition has limited.So,as owners struggle with cash flow picked up briskly,running 38%higher at the pressures,the scrapping of more youthful ships end of August than in 2011.So far this year looks increasingly likely. 22m dwt of bulkers has been scrapped, including 8.1m dwt of Capesizes and 5.6m dwt World Fleet Age Profile of Panamaxes.But the biggest increase has 180 m.dwt been in the Handymax sector,with 2.9m dwt 170 year to date scrapped,twice the level achieved last year.In 160 Others (incl.small and non-cargo) volume terms the scrapping of the smaller 150 DGas Carriers Handysize vessels was more extreme,with 140 Cellular Containerships 5.2m dwt scrapped.This extensive demolition 130 Bulkcarriers is best viewed as a major clear out of the 120 ■Tankers overage tonnage which accumulated during the 110 2003-8 boom and has limped through the last 100 Based on total world fleet of 87,768 vessels. couple of years.The average age of bulkers 90 80 scrapped this year is down but still 28 years, 70 with only Capesizes recording an average below 25 years.Another "straw in the wind" % suggesting that the market is still not in distress. 40 30 Tanker Demolition 20 10 ember to acknowledge the source.http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Demolition of tankers is a different story,with 0 only 8.7m dwt demolished in the year to September 2012.Their low average age of 23 盛器居盛墨器員囂高景常局赏 years no doubt reflects a mix of the clearing out Source:Clarkson Research Services Clarkson Research Services 14 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 14 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK As the freight market has weakened in 2012, the level of demolition activity has picked up. By the end of August, 38.6m dwt of ships had been scrapped, compared to 40.6m dwt in the whole of 2011. On an annualised basis, this represents an increase of 43% y-o-y. The pattern of demolition by region was broadly similar to previous years, with India and Bangladesh each accounting for about 25% of purchased tonnage (about 10m dwt each) in the first eight months of 2012, followed by China with 8.1m dwt and Pakistan with 6.1m dwt. If nothing else this proves that the demolition industry is enormously flexible, responding to movements in prices. Demolition prices have not been too seriously affected by the flood of tonnage into the market, with tankers fetching around $415/ldt and dry cargo vessels about $390, both about 14% down on the start of 2012. So far weakening steel prices have not had much impact. Bulk Carrier Demolition Given the appalling level of freight rates, it is no surprise that bulk carrier demolition has picked up briskly, running 38% higher at the end of August than in 2011. So far this year 22m dwt of bulkers has been scrapped, including 8.1m dwt of Capesizes and 5.6m dwt of Panamaxes. But the biggest increase has been in the Handymax sector, with 2.9m dwt scrapped, twice the level achieved last year. In volume terms the scrapping of the smaller Handysize vessels was more extreme, with 5.2m dwt scrapped. This extensive demolition is best viewed as a major clear out of the overage tonnage which accumulated during the 2003-8 boom and has limped through the last couple of years. The average age of bulkers scrapped this year is down but still 28 years, with only Capesizes recording an average below 25 years. Another "straw in the wind" suggesting that the market is still not in distress. Tanker Demolition Demolition of tankers is a different story, with only 8.7m dwt demolished in the year to September 2012. Their low average age of 23 years no doubt reflects a mix of the clearing out single hull vessels and the demanding standards of tanker charterers. About 40% of this demolition was single hull tankers, reducing the fleet to 11.6m dwt, down from 15.8m dwt six months ago. The seven VLCCs scrapped averaged just 21 years old and Suezmax and Aframax tankers a little over 21 years. In contrast the products tankers demolished averaged over 25 years. Other Ship Demolition Demolition of containerships has also edged upwards, with 2.9m dwt scrapped up to August, compared with 1.2m dwt in 2011. Total demolition of specialised tonnage up to August was pretty similar to levels in 2011. Demolition Outlook Demolition is up firmly in 2012, as the market clears out overage tonnage and comes to grips with the combination of low earnings and more waiting time for old and unattractive vessels. There is still some elderly tonnage to remove, but as the age profile of the world fleet shows (see below), the backlog of these ships is quite limited. So, as owners struggle with cash flow pressures, the scrapping of more youthful ships looks increasingly likely. 1.4 The Demolition Market 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 <1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 m. dwt Source: Clarkson Research Services World Fleet Age Profile Others (incl. small and non-cargo) Gas Carriers Cellular Containerships Bulkcarriers Tankers year to date Based on total world fleet of 87,768 vessels. Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK 1.5 Dry Bulk Market Outlook Dry Bulk Year End Forecast Fleet (m.dwt) 200820092010201120122013 The dry bulk swing-o-meter on the opposite Capesize 143.8170.0209.5 249.4 287.4300.2 page shows the market is now in recession,at inc.combos 147.1172.3212.4 250.5 288.5301.0 65%below trend.This reflects a severe 8% 17%23% 18% 15% 4% deterioration in spot rates to levels which would Panamax 114.6121.0136.4155.0179.5200.1 normally be associated with a depression,but inc.combos 116.4121.8137.2 155.3 179.8200.3 tempered by somewhat less depressed second- 5% 5%13% 13% 16% 11% icensed to The Hong hand prices.But the major change since we Handymax 82.9 91.9109.2 127.0 141.5151.6 wrote our last report in the Spring is the 8% 11%19% 16% 11% 7% growing acceptance that the bulk carrier market Handysize 76.275.581.2 84.0 87.388.1 has a very large supply problem which is 4% 1% 8% 3% 4% 1% unlikely to be resolved in the short-term Total Fleet 422.5461.5540.0616.8697.1741.0 Bulk Carrier Demand 6% 9%17% 14% 13% 6% Table 1.3 Bulkcarrier Fleet Kong Polytechnic University. Dry bulk trade has continued to perform reasonably well,bearing in mind the credit The other dry bulk trade segment which is crisis and the economic problems in the OECD performing well at present is steam coal which countries that are all major participants in the reached 720mt in 2011 and is projected to grow trade.Overall the dry bulk trade is expected to to 769mt in 2012,an increase of 49mt.not far Distribution grow by around 4.2%in 2012 and we are short of the iron ore trade.Again,China is a projecting another year of similar growth in very major player in this trade,and represents a 2013.Although this growth rate is considerably relatively new source of growth.Eight years lower than the record years 2003 to 2007 when is restricted: ago China imported 5.6mt of thermal coal,but trade growth averaged 6.6%per annum,it is not in full year 2012 we expect that to reach 123mt, far off the long-term growth trend for the dry which represents over 40%of the total growth please bulk sector.So,although demand may not be in the global seaborne steam coal trade over this living up to the boom years,it is moving ahead period.Meanwhile,European imports have with sufficient momentum to soak up at least resumed some growth since the decline which part of the surplus capacity.The problem is the began in 2007 but still have some way to go to scale of that capacity. regain those levels;Japanese imports are static; the only other growth is from other Asian As in previous years,the real driver of the dry countries,but mostly slow,with the notable bulk trade is iron ore.This added 60mt of cargo acknowledge exception of India.The metallurgical coal trade in 2011 and we expect another 50mt in 2012. is not much higher than it was two years ago. Virtually all of this growth is from China. Although the trade is slowing,compared with Finally we do not expect the grain trade to show the source the very rapid growth during the last decade,it much growth this year,partly due to the impact still has momentum,and Chinese iron ore of severe drought on US exports.Meanwhile imports are likely to grow by c.45mt in 2012. minor bulk trade is expected to grow by 4%in There are no other significant contributors to 2012,with growth expected to be reasonable in trade growth.Europe's imports of 112mt are scrap,steel products and forest products in lower today than they were in 2010 and the particular.So,as noted earlier in the report,dry same is true of Japan,whose projected imports bulk demand could be a lot worse,but it of 132mt this year are no higher than they were remains very dependent on China. in 2005.South Korean imports are edging up, but only by a couple of million tonnes a year. Bulk Carrier Supply So the iron ore business is still really all about China,and,as a postscript,Chinese iron ore Nobody needs reminding about the tsunami of imports are likely to account for about 30%of deliveries which is sweeping through the bulk http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 the total dry bulk trade growth this year.A carrier industry.To put this into perspective, worrying case of too many eggs in one basket. during the great dry bulk boom of the mid Clarkson Research Services 16 Autumn 2012

Clarkson Research Services 16 Autumn 2012 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK The dry bulk swing-o-meter on the opposite page shows the market is now in recession, at 65% below trend. This reflects a severe deterioration in spot rates to levels which would normally be associated with a depression, but tempered by somewhat less depressed secondhand prices. But the major change since we wrote our last report in the Spring is the growing acceptance that the bulk carrier market has a very large supply problem which is unlikely to be resolved in the short-term. Bulk Carrier Demand Dry bulk trade has continued to perform reasonably well, bearing in mind the credit crisis and the economic problems in the OECD countries that are all major participants in the trade. Overall the dry bulk trade is expected to grow by around 4.2% in 2012 and we are projecting another year of similar growth in 2013. Although this growth rate is considerably lower than the record years 2003 to 2007 when trade growth averaged 6.6% per annum, it is not far off the long-term growth trend for the dry bulk sector. So, although demand may not be living up to the boom years, it is moving ahead with sufficient momentum to soak up at least part of the surplus capacity. The problem is the scale of that capacity. As in previous years, the real driver of the dry bulk trade is iron ore. This added 60mt of cargo in 2011 and we expect another 50mt in 2012. Virtually all of this growth is from China. Although the trade is slowing, compared with the very rapid growth during the last decade, it still has momentum, and Chinese iron ore imports are likely to grow by c.45mt in 2012. There are no other significant contributors to trade growth. Europe's imports of 112mt are lower today than they were in 2010 and the same is true of Japan, whose projected imports of 132mt this year are no higher than they were in 2005. South Korean imports are edging up, but only by a couple of million tonnes a year. So the iron ore business is still really all about China, and, as a postscript, Chinese iron ore imports are likely to account for about 30% of the total dry bulk trade growth this year. A worrying case of too many eggs in one basket. The other dry bulk trade segment which is performing well at present is steam coal which reached 720mt in 2011 and is projected to grow to 769mt in 2012, an increase of 49mt, not far short of the iron ore trade. Again, China is a very major player in this trade, and represents a relatively new source of growth. Eight years ago China imported 5.6mt of thermal coal, but in full year 2012 we expect that to reach 123mt, which represents over 40% of the total growth in the global seaborne steam coal trade over this period. Meanwhile, European imports have resumed some growth since the decline which began in 2007 but still have some way to go to regain those levels; Japanese imports are static; the only other growth is from other Asian countries, but mostly slow, with the notable exception of India. The metallurgical coal trade is not much higher than it was two years ago. Finally we do not expect the grain trade to show much growth this year, partly due to the impact of severe drought on US exports. Meanwhile minor bulk trade is expected to grow by 4% in 2012, with growth expected to be reasonable in scrap, steel products and forest products in particular. So, as noted earlier in the report, dry bulk demand could be a lot worse, but it remains very dependent on China. Bulk Carrier Supply Nobody needs reminding about the tsunami of deliveries which is sweeping through the bulk carrier industry. To put this into perspective, during the great dry bulk boom of the mid 1.5 Dry Bulk Market Outlook Table 1.3 Bulkcarrier Fleet Year End Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Capesize 143.8 170.0 209.5 249.4 287.4 300.2 inc. combos 147.1 172.3 212.4 250.5 288.5 301.0 8% 17% 23% 18% 15% 4% Panamax 114.6 121.0 136.4 155.0 179.5 200.1 inc. combos 116.4 121.8 137.2 155.3 179.8 200.3 5% 5% 13% 13% 16% 11% Handymax 82.9 91.9 109.2 127.0 141.5 151.6 8% 11% 19% 16% 11% 7% Handysize 76.2 75.5 81.2 84.0 87.3 88.1 4% 1% 8% 3% 4% 1% 422.5 461.5 540.0 616.8 697.1 741.0 6% 9% 17% 14% 13% 6% Dry Bulk Fleet (m.dwt) Total Fleet Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304

SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Average Values 2002-2011 The bulk market moved by Soft -7%over the last six months,to end up 65% Recession Boom below trend compared with -58%six months ago.All indicators posted negative numbers, with the Pana- -30% icensed to The Hong Depression Bonanza maxes decreasing by the 60% +60 greatest extent on average. 90% 65% +90% Zap! Handymaxes decreased by 120% 5 points on average to +120% reach 54%below trend,the best performance of all the bulkcarrier sectors Where are we in the Dry Cargo Cycle? Capesizes and Panamaxes Kong Polytechnic University. Market 2002-11 Mar'12 Sep'12 fell to -74%and -68% Ship by Type Rate Averaee Market diff.from Market diff.from Last Six Months Indicator Rate Average Rate Average respectively. Capesize Spot ($/day) 51.759 6.185 -88% 3717 93% -5%e Bit Worse 1 year ve (S/day) 50.432 15.50 69 10.000 -80量 -11%Worse Declines in spot earnings, 5 vear old (Sm.) 64.1 365 43 33.0 .499 -5%Bit Worse Capesize Average 67% 74 -7%e Bit Worse period rates and asset pric- Distribution Panamax Spot (S/day) 24.514 4.664 -81% 2,951 -88% B orse es all contributed to the 1 year ve(ay） 27387 10875 -0056 8500 -69% 9Bit Worse 5 vear old (Sm 388 250 .36 21.0 .46 -105 Worse increased negativity. -59% 68% 9B啦W Trip(S/day) 24.535 8.375 66% 7.-500 Capesize spot earnings fell -69 Bit Worse 1 year ve ($/day) 23.745 10.500 56% 9,750 59% -3%Bit Worse to 93%below trend.while 5 year old (Sm.) 32.4 24.0 -26% 21.5 34% -% Bit Worse Handymax Average .49 54% Bit Worse period rates declined to Dry Cargo Average 58% -65% -7 BIt Worse 80%below trend. Figure 1.5.1 The Dry Cargo Market Dry Cargo Market Cycles $,000/d m dwt 140 80 120 Capesize Bulker 70 is restricted:please remember to acknowledge the source 120K 150K 60 100 ■■■ Bulk Lay-Up 50 80 -Panamax 1 Year t/c 40 60 -Capesize 1 Year t/c 40 20 20 人A 10 0 R寸P品西品$品品品品品5$号6885吕吕吕68 Source:Clarkson Research Services http://www.clarksons.nel 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Figure 1.5.2 Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 17

Clarkson Research Services Autumn 2012 17 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Figure 1.5.2 Figure 1.5.1 The Dry Cargo Market • The bulk market moved by –7% over the last six months, to end up 65% below trend compared with –58% six months ago. All indicators posted negative numbers, with the Panamaxes decreasing by the greatest extent on average. • Handymaxes decreased by 5 points on average to reach 54% below trend, the best performance of all the bulkcarrier sectors. Capesizes and Panamaxes fell to –74% and –68% respectively. • Declines in spot earnings, period rates and asset prices all contributed to the increased negativity. Capesize spot earnings fell to 93% below trend, while period rates declined to 80% below trend. Where are we in the Dry Cargo Cycle? Market 2002-11 Ship by Type Rate Average Market % diff. from Market % diff. from Indicator Value Rate Average Rate Average Capesize Spot ($/day) 51,759 6,185 -88% 3,717 -93% -5% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 50,432 15,500 -69% 10,000 -80% -11% Worse 5 year old ($m.) 64.1 36.5 -43% 33.0 -49% -5% Bit Worse Capesize Average -67% -74% -7% Bit Worse Panamax Spot ($/day) 24,514 4,664 -81% 2,951 -88% -7% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 27,387 10,875 -60% 8,500 -69% -9% Bit Worse 5 year old ($m.) 38.8 25.0 -36% 21.0 -46% -10% Worse Panamax Average -59% -68% -9% Bit Worse Handymax Trip ($/day) 24,535 8,375 -66% 7,500 -69% -4% Bit Worse 1 year t/c ($/day) 23,745 10,500 -56% 9,750 -59% -3% Bit Worse 5 year old ($m.) 32.4 24.0 -26% 21.5 -34% -8% Bit Worse Handymax Average -49% -54% -5% Bit Worse Dry Cargo Average -58% -65% -7% Bit Worse Mar '12 Sep '12 Last Six Months 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 $,000/d m dwt Source: Clarkson Research Services Dry Cargo Market Cycles Bulk Lay-Up Panamax 1 Year t/c Capesize 1 Year t/c Capesize Bulker 120K 150K Average Values, 2002-2011 Zap!! +120% -30% -90% -60% +30% +60% +90% 0 -120% Depression Recession Soft Firm Boom Bonanza -65% Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304 Licensed to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 01/11/2012 06:20:04 15304