Classification of Forecasts .Sales force composites; Subjective- based on .Customer surveys human Jury of executive opinion; judgment .The Delphi method; .Sale force is in a good position to see changes in their preferences; .Numbers of the sale force submit sales estimates of the products they sell in the next year; .Sales manager aggregate individual estimates
Classification of Forecasts Subjectivebased on human judgment •Sales force composites; •Customer surveys •Jury of executive opinion; •The Delphi method; •Sale force is in a good position to see changes in their preferences; •Numbers of the sale force submit sales estimates of the products they sell in the next year; •Sales manager aggregate individual estimates
Classification of Forecasts .Sales force composites; Subjective- based on .Customer surveys human .Jury of executive opinion; judgment .The Delphi method; .It can signal the future trends and shifting preference patterns; .Survey and sampling plans must ensure statistically unbiased resulting data and representative of the customer base;
Classification of Forecasts Subjectivebased on human judgment •Sales force composites; •Customer surveys •Jury of executive opinion; •The Delphi method; •It can signal the future trends and shifting preference patterns; •Survey and sampling plans must ensure statistically unbiased resulting data and representative of the customer base;
Classification of Forecasts .Sales force composites; Subjective- .Customer surveys based on human Jury of executive opinion; judgment .The Delphi method; .Expert's opinion is the only source of information for forecasting,when no past historic data,as with new products; .The approach is to combine the opinions of experts to derive a forecast; .Two ways for the combination. .One is to have individual responsible for preparing for the forecast interview the executive directly and develop a forecast from the result of the interview; .Another is to require the executive to meet as a group and come to consensus
Classification of Forecasts Subjectivebased on human judgment •Sales force composites; •Customer surveys •Jury of executive opinion; •The Delphi method; •Expert’s opinion is the only source of information for forecasting, when no past historic data, as with new products; •The approach is to combine the opinions of experts to derive a forecast; •Two ways for the combination. •One is to have individual responsible for preparing for the forecast interview the executive directly and develop a forecast from the result of the interview; •Another is to require the executive to meet as a group and come to consensus
Classification of Forecasts .Sales force composites; The personalities of some group Subjective- members based on .Customer surveys overshadow others human Jury of executive opinion; judgment .The Delphi method; Named for the Delphic oracle of ancient Greece who had power to predicate the future; Based on collecting the opinion of experts like jury of executive opinion; .However,in different manner in which individual opinions are combined in order to overcome some of the inherent shortcoming of group dynamics;
Classification of Forecasts Subjectivebased on human judgment •Sales force composites; •Customer surveys •Jury of executive opinion; •The Delphi method; •Named for the Delphic oracle of ancient Greece who had power to predicate the future; •Based on collecting the opinion of experts like jury of executive opinion; •However, in different manner in which individual opinions are combined in order to overcome some of the inherent shortcoming of group dynamics; The personalities of some group members overshadow others
Classification of Forecasts .Sales force composites; Subjective- based on .Customer surveys human .Jury of executive opinion; judgment .The Delphi method; Procedures for the Delphi method: .A group of experts express their opinions; .The opinions are then compiled and a summary of results are returned to the expert,with special attention to those significant different opinions; .The experts are asked if they wish to reconsider their original opinions in light of the group response, .The process is repeated until an overall group consensus is reached;
Classification of Forecasts Subjectivebased on human judgment •Sales force composites; •Customer surveys •Jury of executive opinion; •The Delphi method; Procedures for the Delphi method: •A group of experts express their opinions; •The opinions are then compiled and a summary of results are returned to the expert, with special attention to those significant different opinions; •The experts are asked if they wish to reconsider their original opinions in light of the group response; •The process is repeated until an overall group consensus is reached;