《货币经济学》课程文献阅读：UNCTAD国际贸易和发展（2018）.pdf

A73/208 L. Trends in trade In 2017, after two years of decline, global trade finally rebounded. It grew by 9 per cent compared with the previous year, reaching a value close to $23 trillion Despite the increase, international trade remained about $1. 2 trillion below its peak attained in 2014. According to forecasts from the World Trade Organization(WTO) and the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, trade is expected to grow by about 4.5 per cent in 2018, in line with global output 2. Notwithstanding the recovery, it is worth noting that there has been a change in international trade dynamics. The steady increase in international trade that characterized most of the 1990s and 2000s has been replaced by a more erratic pattern and generalized fragility. After the strong recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, trade grew at a sluggish pace and then plunged by 12 per cent in 2015 and by 3 per cent in 2016. Two consecutive years of decline in the val ue of international trade had not been recorded since the early 1980s 3. The performance of international trade during the past five years has been at odds not only with the previous trend, but also with the overall economic environment. While international trade growth outperformed economic growth during most of the past three decades, in 2015 and 2016 global output increased while the value of international trade decreased. These dynamics are captured by one of the most commonly used indices to gauge globalization trends- the ratio of the value of world trade over global output(see figure D). This index stalled at about 62 per cent between 2011 and 2014 and then fell during 2015 and 2016-two years that are often referred to as a de-globalization period. The index picked up in 2017, but remains below its peak Figure I Economic and international trade growth: 2000-2018 050 :,H,:a -10 1 GDP(% change) 3:38:: Trade(% change Trade/Global output Source: Calculations of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)secretariat are based on data from UNCTADstat Note: Data for 2018 are projections a decrease in the value of trade during a period of economic expansion has not been recorded since 2001, although the decline in international trade at that time was marginal (not even I per cent) 2/22

A/73/208 2/22 18-12039 I. Trends in trade 1. In 2017, after two years of decline, global trade finally rebounded. It grew by 9 per cent compared with the previous year, reaching a value close to $23 trillion. Despite the increase, international trade remained about $1.2 trillion below its peak, attained in 2014. According to forecasts from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, trade is expected to grow by about 4.5 per cent in 2018, in line with global output. 2. Notwithstanding the recovery, it is worth noting that there has been a change in international trade dynamics. The steady increase in international trade that characterized most of the 1990s and 2000s has been replaced by a more erratic pattern and generalized fragility. After the strong recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, trade grew at a sluggish pace and then plunged by 12 per cent in 2015 and by 3 per cent in 2016. Two consecutive years of decline in the value of international trade had not been recorded since the early 1980s. 3. The performance of international trade during the past five years has been at odds not only with the previous trend, but also with the overall economic environment. While international trade growth outperformed economic growth during most of the past three decades, in 2015 and 2016 global output increased while the value of international trade decreased.1 These dynamics are captured by one of the most commonly used indices to gauge globalization trends — the ratio of the value of world trade over global output (see figure I). This index stalled at about 62 per cent between 2011 and 2014 and then fell during 2015 and 2016 — two years that are often referred to as a de-globalization period. The index picked up in 2017, but remains below its peak. Figure I Economic and international trade growth: 2000–2018 Source: Calculations of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) secretariat are based on data from UNCTADstat. Note: Data for 2018 are projections. __________________ 1 A decrease in the value of trade during a period of economic expansion has not been recorded since 2001, although the decline in international trade at that time was marginal (not even 1 per cent). 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trade over global output (percentage) Percentage change in trade and GDP GDP (% change) Trade (% change) Trade/Global output

A73/208 4. The magnitude of the decline in the trade of goods and services observed in 015 and 2016 reflected not only cyclical factors, such as lower investments and commodity prices, but also a change in the international integration process. Many economies began focusing on a more national development path as a result of the ongoing decline in the vertical specialization process across countries. Indeed, the liance of the manufacturing sector on imported inputs(measured by the share of intermediate imports over the exports of manufacturing goods) has declined in many countries during the past decade. 2 5. The trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 was broad-based and geographically widespread. Developing countries were hit hard by the collapse in trade -in most cases, harder than developed countries(see figure n) Figure ll Export slumps and rebounds Economies in transition South asia Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East asia Developed countries 50%40%30%20%10%0%10%20% Decline in 2015 and 2016 Rebound in 2017 Source: UNCTAD secretariat. based on data from UNCTADstat Note Growth rates refer to the 2014 baseline 6. Although trade rebounded strongly in 2017, the value of merchandise exports in 2017 remained well below that reached in 2014 for most countries. East Asia represents the only region for which exports returned to levels comparable to those seen in 2014, largely because of more limited declines in 2015 and 2016. Thi resilience is not surprising, as East Asian manufacturing exporters are in general more diversified and competitive in international markets, which allowed them to better weather the unfavourable economic environment. Looking beyond regional averages, most countries experienced rebounds in 2017 but with different magnitudes. Among the major economies, merchandise exports rebounded by about g per cent in the European Union, 8 per cent in China and 6.5 per cent in the United States of America Emerging Asian economies fared well in general, with exports in the Republic of Korea by about 16 per cent and in India by 13 Wider diffe the magnitude of rebounds are observed in Africa, owing primarily to less diversifie export structures. Among major African economies, exports in South Africa grew by about 18.5 per cent, in Nigeria by about 15.5 per cent and in Ethiopia by about 8.5 pe In the case of China, for example, the rate of intermediate inputs over exports fell from almost 50 per cent in 2007 to about 30 per cent in 2017(UN Co 3/22

A/73/208 18-12039 3/22 4. The magnitude of the decline in the trade of goods and services observed in 2015 and 2016 reflected not only cyclical factors, such as lower investments and commodity prices, but also a change in the international integration process. Many economies began focusing on a more national development path as a result of the ongoing decline in the vertical specialization process across countries. Indeed, the reliance of the manufacturing sector on imported inputs (measured by the share of intermediate imports over the exports of manufacturing goods) has declined in many countries during the past decade.2 5. The trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 was broad-based and geographically widespread. Developing countries were hit hard by the collapse in trade — in most cases, harder than developed countries (see figure II). Figure II Export slumps and rebounds (Percentage) Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data from UNCTADstat. Note: Growth rates refer to the 2014 baseline. 6. Although trade rebounded strongly in 2017, the value of merchandise exports in 2017 remained well below that reached in 2014 for most countries. East Asia represents the only region for which exports returned to levels comparable to those seen in 2014, largely because of more limited declines in 2015 and 2016. This resilience is not surprising, as East Asian manufacturing exporters are in general more diversified and competitive in international markets, which allowed them to better weather the unfavourable economic environment. Looking beyond regional averages, most countries experienced rebounds in 2017 but with different magnitudes. Among the major economies, merchandise exports rebounded by about 9 per cent in the European Union, 8 per cent in China and 6.5 per cent in the United States of America. Emerging Asian economies fared well in general, with exports in the Republic of Korea growing by about 16 per cent and in India by 13 per cent. Wider differences in the magnitude of rebounds are observed in Africa, owing primarily to less diversified export structures. Among major African economies, exports in South Africa grew by about 18.5 per cent, in Nigeria by about 15.5 per cent and in Ethiopia by about 8.5 per __________________ 2 In the case of China, for example, the rate of intermediate inputs over exports fell from almost 50 per cent in 2007 to about 30 per cent in 2017 (UN Comtrade). -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Developed countries East Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East/North Africa South Asia Economies in transition Decline in 2015 and 2016 Rebound in 2017

A73/208 cent. On the other hand, exports in Egypt and Kenya grew by only I per cent. Export also rebounded strongly in most Latin American countries Exports in Brazil grew by 17.5 per cent, in Chile by 12.5 per cent and in Mexico by 9.5 per cent. An exception among the broad-based rebound in Latin American countries was Argentina, whose exports grew by only I per cent. The heterogeneity in recoveries across nations highlights the need for the nuanced and varied policy approaches required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal target 17.11, as well as the fragility of gains made in this context 7. In the past few years, the dynamics of South-South trade have also changed. As f2017, trade between developing countries accounted for about 27 per cent of global trade. While South-South trade fuelled a large part of the trade expansion during the 2000s(see figure Ill), its role as engine of global trade growth has diminished during the past five years. Of note is that about half of South-South trade involves China Excluding trade between China and other developing countries, South-South trade represents about 13 per cent of world trade. South-South trade was more affected by the trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 as well as by the rebound of 2017. This could have important implications for the ability of countries to harness trade to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals South-South trade(as percentage of global trade) 20% 200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 South-South South-China Source: UNCTAD secretariat. based on data from UN Comtrade A. Commodities trading is critical for most developing countries 8. Commodity prices have played a substantial role both in the collapse of nternational trade and in its recovery, Given that almost two thirds of developing countries are commodity-dependent, with the proportion being about 80 per cent among least developed countries, commodities prices remain hugely influential on the export earnings of many countries. Ultimately, price movements affect the abili of developing nations to address their socioeconomic development needs and fulfil the Sustainable Development Goals. In this regard, while commodity prices increased across the board in 2016, the trends in 20 17 were more varied(see figure IV). Overall commodity prices kept increasing, as measured by the United Nations Conference on 4/22

A/73/208 4/22 18-12039 cent. On the other hand, exports in Egypt and Kenya grew by only 1 per cent. Exports also rebounded strongly in most Latin American countries. Exports in Brazil grew by 17.5 per cent, in Chile by 12.5 per cent and in Mexico by 9.5 per cent. An exception among the broad-based rebound in Latin American countries was Argentina, whose exports grew by only 1 per cent. The heterogeneity in recoveries across nations highlights the need for the nuanced and varied policy approaches required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal target 17.11, as well as the fragility of gains made in this context. 7. In the past few years, the dynamics of South-South trade have also changed. As of 2017, trade between developing countries accounted for about 27 per cent of global trade. While South-South trade fuelled a large part of the trade expansion during the 2000s (see figure III), its role as engine of global trade growth has diminished during the past five years. Of note is that about half of South-South trade involves China. Excluding trade between China and other developing countries, South-South trade represents about 13 per cent of world trade. South-South trade was more affected by the trade downturn of 2015 and 2016 as well as by the rebound of 2017. This could have important implications for the ability of countries to harness trade to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Figure III South-South trade (as percentage of global trade) Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data from UN Comtrade. A. Commodities trading is critical for most developing countries 8. Commodity prices have played a substantial role both in the collapse of international trade and in its recovery. Given that almost two thirds of developing countries are commodity-dependent, with the proportion being about 80 per cent among least developed countries, commodities prices remain hugely influential on the export earnings of many countries. Ultimately, price movements affect the ability of developing nations to address their socioeconomic development needs and fulfil the Sustainable Development Goals. In this regard, while commodity prices increased across the board in 2016, the trends in 2017 were more varied (see figure IV). Overall commodity prices kept increasing, as measured by the United Nations Conference on 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 South-South South-China