《国际投资》课程教学资源（书籍文献）世界投资报告（2016）World Investment Report, FDI from Developing and Transition Economies - Implications for Development.pdf_P21-P25

xxii World Investment Report 2006. FDI from Developing and Transition Economies: Implications for Development Romania, in that order – accounted for close to three quarters of the total. FDI outflows from the region grew for a fourth consecutive year, reaching $15 billion, with the Russian Federation alone responsible for 87% of the total outflows. The countries of the region have different policy priorities related to inward and outward FDI, reflecting their varying economic structures and institutional environments. In natural-resourcebased economies, such as the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, most of the policy issues concern management of the windfall earnings from high international oil prices, and the definition – or redefinition – of the role of the State. …while there was an upturn in FDI to developed countries. FDI inflows into developed countries rose by 37% to $542 billion, or 59% of the world total. Of this, $422 billion went to the 25-member EU. The United Kingdom – the largest single recipient of global FDI – received $165 billion. The main contributory factor was the merger of Shell Transport and Trading (United Kingdom) with Royal Dutch Petroleum (the Netherlands), a deal valued at $74 billion. Other major FDI recipients, that registered significant increases in their FDI inflows included France ($64 billion), the Netherlands ($44 billion) and Canada ($34 billion). The 10 new EU members together attracted $34 billion, a rise of 19% over 2004 and another new record high. Inflows into the United States amounted to $99 billion, a significant decline from 2004. Although well over 90% of all inflows into developed countries originated from other developed countries, several notable investments by TNCs from developing countries also took place, including Lenovo’s (China) takeover of IBM’s personal computer division and the above-mentioned purchase of Italian Wind Telecomunicazioni by Orascom of Egypt through Weather Investments. As a result of the Shell merger mentioned above, the Netherlands emerged as the leading source of FDI in 2005, followed by France ($116 billion) and the United Kingdom ($101 billion). Overall, however, outflows from developed countries declined somewhat, from $686 billion to $646 billion, mainly due to a fall in outflows from the United States. The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 contributed to the decline, as it allowed repatriated earnings of United States foreign affiliates to be taxed at a lower rate than the normal one, leading to a one-off fall in reinvested earnings. FDI into developed countries increased in all three sectors: primary, manufacturing and services. In keeping with the global trend, investment in natural resources increased significantly. In manufacturing, some of the new EU members (especially the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) consolidated their positions as preferred locations for automotive production. Hyundai Motors, for instance, announced plans to set up new plants in the Czech Republic and in Slovakia. The new EU members are likely to maintain their comparative advantages (e.g. their average wage is 30% of the average wage in the older EU countries) for some time, and their automotive production is expected to double over the next five years, to 3.2 million vehicles. In 2005, there were intense political discussions on various aspects of FDI, and especially cross-border M&As, in developed countries. On the one hand, some countries, particularly the 10 new EU member States, continue to privatize, reduce corporate income taxes and provide new incentives to attract more FDI. On the other hand, various concerns have been raised in a number of countries following the increased M&A activity. National security concerns, for example, led to a blocking of the purchase of Unocal (United States) by CNOOC (China); the Governments of Spain and France tried to prevent the buyouts of Endesa and Suez, respectively, by companies from other EU countries, and steps were taken to protect national champions. Japan has postponed the approval of cross-border M&As through share swaps and adopted some restrictions in the retail industry for instance. Overall, FDI should continue to grow in the short term. World FDI inflows are expected to increase further in 2006. This prospect is based on continued economic growth, increased corporate profits – with a consequent increase in stock prices that would boost the value of cross-border M&As – and policy liberalization. In the first half of 2006, crossborder M&As rose 39% compared to the same period in 2005. However, there are factors that may dampen further FDI growth. These include the continuing high oil prices, rising interest rates and increased inflationary pressures, which may restrain economic growth in most regions. Also, various economic imbalances in the global economy as well as geopolitical tensions in some parts of the world are adding to the uncertainty

OVERVIEW xxiii Developing and transition economies have emerged as significant outward investors… Although developed-country TNCs account for the bulk of global FDI, an examination of different data sources shows a growing and significant international presence of firms – both private and State-owned – from developing and transition economies. Their outward expansion through FDI provides development opportunities for the home economies concerned. However, it is eliciting mixed reactions from recipient countries in different parts of the world. Some welcome the increased FDI from these economies as a new source of capital and knowledge; for others it also represents new competition. A small number of source economies are responsible for a large share of these FDI outflows, but companies from more and more countries see the need to explore investment opportunities abroad to defend or build a competitive position. FDI from developing and transition economies reached $133 billion in 2005, representing about 17% of world outward flows. Excluding FDI from offshore financial centres, the total outflow was $120 billion – the highest level ever recorded. The value of the stock of FDI from developing and transition economies was estimated at $1.4 trillion in 2005, or 13% of the world total. As recently as 1990, only six developing and transition economies reported outward FDI stocks of more than $5 billion; by 2005, that threshold had been exceeded by 25 developing and transition economies. Data on cross-border M&As, greenfield investments and expansion projects as well as statistics related to the number of parent companies based outside the developed world confirm the growing significance of TNCs from developing and transition economies. Between 1987 and 2005, their share of global cross-border M&As rose from 4% to 13% in value terms, and from 5% to 17% in terms of the number of deals concluded. Their share of all recorded greenfield and expansion projects exceeded 15% in 2005, and the total number of parent companies in Brazil, China, Hong Kong (China), India and the Republic of Korea has multiplied, from less than 3,000 to more than 13,000 over the past decade. Sectorally, the bulk of FDI from developing and transition economies has been in tertiary activities, notably in business, financial and traderelated services. However, significant FDI has also been reported in manufacturing (e.g. electronics) and, more recently, in the primary sector (oil exploration and mining). Data on cross-border M&As confirm the dominance of services, which constituted 63%, by value, of M&As undertaken by companies based in developing and transition economies in 2005. By industry, the highest shares that year were recorded for transport, storage and communications, mining, financial services, and food and beverages. The geographical composition of FDI from developing and transition economies has changed over time, the most notable long-term development being the steady growth of developing Asia as a source of FDI. Its share in the total stock of FDI from developing and transition economies stood at 23% in 1980, rising to 46% by 1990 and to 62% in 2005. Conversely, the share of Latin America and the Caribbean in outward FDI fell from 67% in 1980 to 25% in 2005. The top five home economies accounted for two thirds of the stock of FDI from developing and transition economies, and the top 10 for 83%. In 2005, the largest outward FDI stock among developing and transition economies was in Hong Kong (China), the British Virgin Islands, the Russian Federation, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China. A sizeable share of FDI originates from offshore financial centres. The British Virgin Islands is by far the largest such source, with an outward FDI stock in 2005 estimated at almost $123 billion. From a statistical point of view, transshipping FDI via offshore financial centres makes it difficult to estimate the real size of outward FDI from specific economies and by specific companies. In some years, flows from these centres have been particularly large. However, since 2000, their outward FDI has declined considerably and now amounts to around one tenth of the total flows of FDI from developing and transition economies. According to UNCTAD’s Outward FDI Performance Index, which compares an economy’s share of world outward FDI against its share of world GDP, FDI from Hong Kong (China) was 10 times larger than would be expected, given its share of world GDP. Other developing economies with FDI FROM DEVELOPING AND TRANSITION ECONOMIES

xxiv World Investment Report 2006. FDI from Developing and Transition Economies: Implications for Development comparatively high outflows included Bahrain, Malaysia, Panama, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China. Meanwhile, many countries with relatively large outward FDI in absolute terms, such as Brazil, China, India and Mexico, are at the opposite end of the spectrum, suggesting considerable potential for future expansion of FDI. …generating considerable South-South investment flows. The emergence of these new sources of FDI may be of particular relevance to low-income host countries. TNCs from developing and transition economies have become important investors in many LDCs. Developing countries with the highest dependence on FDI from developing and transition economies include China, Kyrgyzstan, Paraguay and Thailand, and LDCs such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar and the United Republic of Tanzania. Indeed, FDI from developing countries accounts for well over 40% of the total inward FDI of a number of LDCs. For example, in Africa, South Africa is a particularly important source of FDI; it accounts for more than 50% of all FDI inflows into Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Malawi and Swaziland. Moreover, the level of FDI from developing and transition economies to many LDCs may well be understated in official FDI data, as a significant proportion of such investment goes to their informal sector, which is not included in government statistics. UNCTAD estimates show that South-South FDI has expanded particularly fast over the past 15 years. Total outflows from developing and transition economies (excluding offshore financial centres) increased from about $4 billion in 1985 to $61 billion in 2004; most of these were destined for other developing or transition economies. In fact, FDI among these economies increased from $2 billion in 1985 to $60 billion in 2004. As FDI of transition economies account for a very small proportion of these transactions, this estimate can also be used as a proxy for the size of South-South FDI. The bulk of South-South FDI (excluding offshore financial centres) is intraregional in nature. In fact, during the period 2002-2004, average annual intra-Asian flows amounted to an estimated $48 billion. The next largest stream of FDI within the group of developing countries was within Latin America, mainly driven by investors in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Intraregional flows within Africa were an estimated $2 billion reflecting, in particular, South African FDI to the rest of the continent. Interregional South-South FDI has gone primarily from Asia to Africa, while the second largest has been from Latin America to Asia. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, total flows from Asia to the Latin American region were modest during the period 2002-2004, and those between Latin America and Africa were negligible. New global and regional players are emerging, especially from Asia… The diversity of the home economies now emerging as significant sources of FDI precludes any far-reaching generalizations of the characteristics of TNCs from developing and transition economies, but it is possible to identify certain salient features. Although most of their TNCs are relatively small, a number of large ones with global ambitions have also appeared on the scene. They tend to be involved in particular industries, with notable variations between different home economies and regions. Compared with their developed-country counterparts, a relatively high degree of State ownership can be observed among the largest TNCs from developing and transition economies. However, these stylized observations should be interpreted with care, as there are important differences between regions and countries, as well as between individual companies. Although more economies are emerging as FDI sources, there is still a relatively high concentration of countries from which the major TNCs originate: from South Africa in Africa, from Mexico and Brazil in Latin America, and from the Russian Federation in the CIS. There is less concentration in Asia, where the four newly industrializing economies, along with China, India, Malaysia and Thailand, are home countries for a growing number of companies that have expanded abroad. At the same time, a number of smaller TNCs from a wider range of developing countries are also increasing their foreign activities, mostly at the regional level. There are also an increasing number of large TNCs from developing and transition economies that feature in lists of the largest companies in the world. For example, around 1990, there were only 19 companies from developing and transition economies listed in the Fortune 500; by 2005, the number had risen to 47. In terms of industrial distribution a few industries are better represented than others, but with important regional variations. Some TNCs from developing and transition economies have risen to leading global positions in industries such as automotives, chemicals, electronics, petroleum refining and steel, and in services such as banking, shipping, information technology (IT) services and

OVERVIEW xxv construction. In some specific industries, such as container shipping and petroleum refining, developing-economy TNCs have a particularly strong presence. In all developing regions and in the Russian Federation, major TNCs have emerged in the primary sector (oil, gas, mining) and resource-based manufacturing (metals, steel). Some of them are now competing head-on with their developedcountry rivals. Examples include Sasol (South Africa) in Africa; CVRD (Brazil), ENAP (Chile), Petrobras (Brazil) and Petroleos de Venezuela (Venezuela) in Latin America; Baosteel, CNPC and CNOOC (China), Petronas (Malaysia), Posco (Republic of Korea) and PTTEP (Thailand) in Asia; and Gazprom and Lukoil (Russian Federation). Another cluster of activities involving many developing-economy TNCs are financial services, infrastructure services (electricity, telecommunications and transportation) and goods that are relatively difficult to export (cement, food and beverages). Because of their non-tradable nature, these economic activities typically require FDI if a company wishes to serve a foreign market. With a few exceptions (such as Cemex and the former South African companies, Old Mutual and SABMiller), however, most of the developingcountry TNCs in these areas are mainly regional players, with limited (if any) activities in other parts of the world. A third cluster of activities consists of those that are the most exposed to global competition, such as automotives, electronics (including semiconductors and telecommunications equipment), garments and IT services. Almost all the major TNCs from developing or transition economies in these industries are based in Asia. Electronics companies such as Acer (Taiwan Province of China), Huawei (China) and Samsung Electronics (Republic of Korea), the automobile firms, Hyundai Motor and Kia Motor (Republic of Korea), or smaller TNCs in the IT services industry, such as Infosys or Wipro Technologies (India), are already among the leaders in their respective industries. In all regions studied, intraregional FDI plays a key role in TNC-controlled international networks. This is especially true in Latin America and the CIS, but also to a large extent in Africa and Asia. The subregion of East and South-East Asia has the largest number of TNCs with global aspirations. Of the top 100 developing-country TNCs in 2004, as many as 77 were based in this subregion. Five of them are also among the top 100 global TNCs: Hutchison Whampoa (Hong Kong, China), Petronas (Malaysia), Singtel (Singapore), Samsung Electronics (Republic of Korea) and CITIC Group (China). …as developing-country TNCs respond to the threats and opportunities arising from globalization with their own distinctive competitive advantages. The increase in the number and diversity of developing-country TNCs over the past decade is largely due to the continuing impact of globalization on developing countries and their economies. The dynamics are complex, but within them the combination of competition and opportunity – interwoven with liberalization policies across developing and developed regions – is particularly important. As developing economies become more open to international competition, their firms are increasingly forced to compete with TNCs from other countries, both domestically and in foreign markets, and FDI can be an important component of their strategies. This competition, in turn can impel them to improve their operations and it encourages the development of firm-specific competitive advantages, resulting in enhanced capabilities to compete in foreign markets. Firms may respond directly to international competition or opportunities by utilizing their existing competitive advantages to establish affiliates abroad. This type of TNC strategy is referred to as “asset exploiting”. Firms can also opt for an “asset augmenting” strategy in order to improve their competitiveness by exploiting their limited competitive advantages to acquire created assets such as technology, brands, distribution networks, R&D expertise and facilities, and managerial competences that may not be available in the home economy. They may even combine both strategies. While developed-country TNCs are most likely to utilize firm-specific advantages based on ownership of assets, such as technologies, brands and other intellectual property, evidence shows that developing-country TNCs rely more on other firmspecific advantages, derived from production process capabilities, networks and relationships, and organizational structure. There are, however, significant variations by country, sector and industry. For example, TNCs in the secondary sector as a whole are most likely to possess and utilize advantages in both production process capabilities and ownership of assets (in that order), with less reliance on advantages grounded in networks and relationships, and organizations. In contrast, for TNCs in the primary sector, production process advantages are preponderant, while in the tertiary sector, networks and relationships represent

xxvi World Investment Report 2006. FDI from Developing and Transition Economies: Implications for Development the main advantage. There is some tendency to convergence with developed-country TNCs, mostly as economies become more developed (e.g. the advantages of TNCs from the Republic of Korea lie increasingly in their ownership of key technologies), but for the present a large diversity of advantages underlies the internationalization of developing-country TNCs. Many of these TNCs also enjoy non-firmspecific competitive advantages: for example, those deriving from access to natural resources or reservoirs of knowledge and expertise in their home countries. These locational advantages might be available to all firms based in an economy, but a number of developing-country TNCs are adept at combining various sources of advantage (including firm-specific ones) into a strong competitive edge. Many of the developing and transition economies that are home to large TNCs and are investing significant amounts of FDI overseas – such as Brazil, China, India, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Turkey – are doing so much earlier (and to a greater degree) than would be expected on the basis of theory or past experience. This intensification of FDI by these countries can be traced to around the early 1990s. The likely reason for this shift lies in the impact of globalization on countries and companies, especially through increased international competition and opportunities. Their outward expansion is driven by various factors … Four key types of push and pull factors, and two associated developments help explain the drive for internationalization by developing-country TNCs. First, market-related factors appear to be strong forces that push developing-country TNCs out of their home countries or pull them into host countries. In the case of Indian TNCs, the need to pursue customers for niche products – for example, in IT services – and the lack of international linkages are key drivers of internationalization. Chinese TNCs, like their Latin American counterparts, are particularly concerned about bypassing trade barriers. Overdependence on the home market is also an issue for TNCs, and there are many examples of developing-country firms expanding into other countries in order to reduce this type of risk. Secondly, rising costs of production in the home economy – especially labour costs – are a particular concern for TNCs from East and SouthEast Asian countries such as Malaysia, the Republic of Korea and Singapore, as well as Mauritius (which has labour-intensive, export-orientated industries, such as garments). Crises or constraints in the home economy, for example where they lead to inflationary pressures, were important drivers in countries such as Chile and Turkey during the 1990s. However, interestingly, costs are less of an issue for China and India – two growing sources of FDI from the developing world. Clearly, this is because both are very large countries with considerable reserves of labour, both skilled and unskilled. Thirdly, competitive pressures on developing-country firms are pushing them to expand overseas. These pressures include competition from low-cost producers, particularly from efficient East and South-East Asian manufacturers. Indian TNCs, for the present, are relatively immune to this pressure, perhaps because of their higher specialization in services and the availability of abundant low-cost labour. For them, competition from foreign and domestic companies based in the home economy is a more important impetus to internationalize. Similarly, competition from foreign TNCs in China’s domestic economy is widely regarded as a major push factor behind the rapid expansion of FDI by Chinese TNCs. Such competition can also sometimes result in preemptive internationalization, as when Embraer (Brazil) and Techint (Argentina) invested abroad in the 1990s, ahead of liberalization in their respective home industries. Domestic and global competition is an important issue for developing-country TNCs, especially when these TNCs are increasingly parts of global production networks in industries such as automobiles, electronics and garments. Fourthly, home and host government policies influence outward FDI decisions. Chinese TNCs regard their Government’s policies as an important push factor in their internationalization. Indian firms, on the other hand, have been enticed by supportive host-government regulations and incentives, as well as favourable competition and inward FDI policies. South African TNCs, among others, mention transparent governance, investment in infrastructure, strong currencies, established property rights and minimal exchange-rate regulations as important pull factors. Most importantly, liberalization policies in host economies are creating many investment opportunities, for example through privatizations of State-owned assets and enterprises. Apart from the above mentioned factors, there are two other major developments driving developing-country TNCs abroad. First, the rapid growth of many large developing countries – foremost among these being China and India – is