Hong Kong's New Politics:APost-Election Analysis香港政治新形势：俊選翠分析Tracking VoterPreferences andVoters'Views about LegCo's Agenda汉民意向及汉題走艺CHUNGTing-yiuRobert锺庭耀DirectorofPublicOpinionProgramme,HKU18/9/2004
Hong Kong’s New Politics: A Post-Election Analysis 香港政治新形勢：後選舉分析 Tracking Voter Preferences and Voters’ Views about LegCo’s Agenda 選民意向及選舉議題走勢 CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert 鍾庭耀 Director of Public Opinion Programme, HKU 18/9/2004
One single question重要提周.Whatisthepeople'smandate？香港市民授耀了什磨？What have votersmandated?香港民授了什磨？Whathave1.8mGCvotersmandated?香港180萬参興地區直選的選民授了什？Whohavemandatedwhomtodowhat?什磨人授什磨人做什磨？Answered by trackingvoterpreferences and analyzingvoters'agenda需要根據认民意向及羲題走势逐步解答
One single question 重要提問 . What is the people’s mandate? 香港市民授權了什麼？ ⚫ What have voters mandated? ⚫ 香港選民授權了什麼？ ⚫ What have 1.8m GC voters mandated? ⚫ 香港180萬參與地區直選的選民授權了什麼？ ⚫ Who have mandated whom to do what? ⚫ 什麼人授權什麼人做什麼？ Answered by tracking voter preferences and analyzing voters’ agenda 需要根據選民意向及選舉議題走勢逐步解答
Our source of data...Continuousrollingsurveysfrom4Augto9Sep37daysofcontinuousfieldwork33separatepublicreleasesfrom9Augto11Sepaccumulatedsampleof16,785registeredvotersresponseratesbetween73%to76%Exitpollsconductedat101outof501pollingstations9,223actualvotersinterviewed998partiallysuccessfulinterviews,3,611refusalcases13,832attemptsmade,responserate=66.7%OtherdatasourcestobeexploitedOn-linesurveyofover700subjectsOver250electionnightobserversat different stationsAlmost70voluntarystudentresearcherspracticingsiteobservationandexitpolls
Our source of data. Continuous rolling surveys from 4 Aug to 9 Sep ⚫ 37 days of continuous fieldwork ⚫ 33 separate public releases from 9 Aug to 11 Sep ⚫ accumulated sample of 16,785 registered voters ⚫ response rates between 73% to 76% Exit polls conducted at 101 out of 501 polling stations ⚫ 9,223 actual voters interviewed ⚫ 998 partially successful interviews, 3,611 refusal cases ⚫ 13,832 attempts made, response rate = 66.7% Other data sources to be exploited ⚫ On-line survey of over 700 subjects ⚫ Over 250 election night observers at different stations ⚫ Almost 70 voluntary student researchers practicing site observation and exit polls
敷據來源.·8月4日至9月9日连续不断的滚動调查37天连绩調查，8月9日至9月11日期間33天绩發放累精檬本16.785名登记選民，回應率73%至76%之間501個投票站抽取101個票站進行的票站调查成功訪9223名剧完成投票的選民另外998個部份完成個案，3.611个拒訪个案13.832次当試：回鹰率66.7%其他尚未理的餐料来源網上调查，超过700个案超逼250固在晚上部署在各個票站乾凰的票站觀察具接近70个義务學生研究家真進行的實智票站调查及觀察
數據來源 . 8月4日至9月9日連續不斷的滾動調查 ⚫ 37 天連續調查， 8月9日至9月11日期間33 天連續發放 ⚫ 累積樣本16,785 名登記選民，回應率73%至76%之間 從501個投票站抽取101個票站進行的票站調查 ⚫ 成功訪問9,223 名剛剛完成投票的選民 ⚫ 另外998 個部份完成個案，3,611 個拒訪個案 ⚫ 13,832 次嘗試，回應率 66.7% 其他尚未處理的資料來源 ⚫ 網上調查，超過 700 個案 ⚫ 超過 250個在晚上部署在各個票站範圍的票站觀察員 ⚫ 接近 70 個義務學生研究隊員進行的實習票站調查及觀察
遥民投票意欲（综合全港各區調查结果）Propensitytovote(Territory-widerollingsurveyresult)90%88%86%84%82%80%78%76%调查日期DateofSurvey8/9/04:...our latest figure stands at 83%... somewhat difficult for this year'sturnouttosurpass[the53% of 1998]...it shouldbe comfortablyhigherthanthe44%actualturnoutregistered in2000日前錄得的数字是83%...以目前调查敷字推算，今年投票率要再愈靡史新高，應该有點困難，但愿會比2000年的44%高出一截
8/9/04: ⚫ .our latest figure stands at 83%. somewhat difficult for this year's turnout to surpass [the 53% of 1998]. it should be comfortably higher than the 44% actual turnout registered in 2000. ⚫ 目前錄得的數字是83％.以目前調查數字推算，今年投票率要再創 歷史新高，應該有點困難，但應該會比2000 年的44％高出一截。 選民投票意欲 (綜合全港各區調查結果) Propensity to vote (Territory-wide rolling survey result) 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 4-6/8/04 5-7/8/04 6-8/8/04 7-9/8/04 8-10/8/04 9-11/8/04 10-12/8/04 11-13/8/04 12-14/8/04 13-15/8/04 14-16/8/04 15-17/8/04 16-18/8/04 17-19/8/04 18-20/8/04 19-21/8/04 20-22/8/04 21-23/8/04 22-24/8/04 23-25/8/04 24-26/8/04 25-27/8/04 26-28/8/04 27-29/8/04 28-30/8/04 29-31/8/04 30/8-1/9/04 31/8-2/9/04 1-3/9/04 2-4/9/04 3-5/9/04 4-6/9/04 5-7/9/04 6-8/9/04 7-9/9/04 調查日期 Date of Survey 百分比 Percentage