16886-Feb3,2004 Commercial trends- Contd Allison, et al"Expedited Transport Airlines", Final Report for 16.899 Air Transportation System architecting World air cargo and freight to grow at 6.4-6.5%per year for next 10 years Total worldwide freight shipping expected to go from 132 to 383 Freight- Ton-Kilometers in 20 years Freighter Fleet to grow from 1, 775 to 3, 078, including retirement of 1, 228 old freighters, mostly narrow body ong range freighter segment will be the fastest growing Standard shipments take 4-6 days with only 10-15%time in the air. Most the time is ground transport, handling, waiting Top 10 markets will generate 40% of global airfreight in next 10 years Intra asia, China→ Europe, China→ North america, North America台→ Asia, Europe o> Asia, North America Europe, DomestIc USA Lots of good data in this report from last year's class
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Trends - Cont’d • Allison, et al “Expedited Transport Airlines”, Final Report for 16.899 Air Transportation System Architecting. – World air cargo and freight to grow at 6.4-6.5% per year for next 10 years. – Total worldwide freight shipping expected to go from 132 to 383 FreightTon-Kilometers in 20 years. – Freighter Fleet to grow from 1,775 to 3,078, including retirement of 1,228 old freighters, mostly narrow body. – Long range freighter segment will be the fastest growing – Standard shipments take 4-6 days with only 10-15% time in the air. Most the time is ground transport, handling, waiting. – Top 10 markets will generate 40% of global airfreight in next 10 years: Intra Asia, China ⇒ Europe, China ⇒ North America, North America ⇔ Asia, Europe ⇔ Asia, North America ⇔ Europe, Domestic USA Lots of good data in this report from last year’s class
16886-Feb3,2004 Military Drivers Threats are global Reaction times are shorter Trends are towards Us basing for security, economic and political factors Result is US forces are becoming more expeditionary Rumsfeld's Transformation goals for Army Deploy 1 division anywhere in the world in 5 days Deploy 5 divisions anywhere in the world in 30 days Division is 16, 000 personnel and all their equipment Long range bombers based on continental US require considerable tanker support which is expensive and logistically complicated We need more information on military drivers
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Military Drivers • Threats are global • Reaction times are shorter • Trends are towards US basing for security, economic and political factors • Result is US forces are becoming more expeditionary • Rumsfeld’s Transformation goals for Army – Deploy 1 division anywhere in the world in 5 days – Deploy 5 divisions anywhere in the world in 30 days • Division is 16,000 personnel and all their equipment • Long range bombers based on continental US require considerable tanker support which is expensive and logistically complicated. We need more information on military drivers
16886-Feb3,2004 Summary of Drivers Both commercial and military Need more weight and volume transported over long distances Mostly intercontinental Need "block times"in days rather than weeks Ground transport and handling is important Focus on integrated system, not just aircraft Need affordable costs More expensive than surface but less expensive than current air
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Summary of Drivers • Both commercial and military – Need more weight and volume transported over long distances. – Mostly intercontinental – Need “block times” in days rather than weeks • Ground transport and handling is important • Focus on integrated system, not just aircraft – Need affordable costs • More expensive than surface but less expensive than current air
16886-Feb3,2004 Responses to Drivers age removed due to copyright considerations Existing technology More wide body aircraft Many converted passenger aircraft Larger aircraft - A380 Courtesy of Boeing Corporati Used with permission Advanced technologies Blended Wing Body Image removed due to copyright considerations ing in Ground Effect Other Courtesy of Boeing Corporation Used with permIssion. Formation flight Courtesy of Aero Vehicles, Inc. Used with permission
16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Responses to Drivers • Existing technology – More wide body aircraft • Many converted passenger aircraft – Larger aircraft - A380 • Advanced technologies – Blended Wing Body – Wing in Ground Effect – Other – Formation flight Image removed due to copyright considerations. Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission. Courtesy of Boeing Corporation. Used with permission. Image removed due to copyright considerations. Courtesy of AeroVehicles, Inc. Used with permission