实利率的确定 interest rate Supply equilibrium real rate of nterest Demand Equilibrium funds lent Funds
实利率的确定 ◼ Interest rate ◼ Supply ◼ equilibrium ◼ real rate of ◼ interest Demand ◼ Equilibrium funds lent Funds E E
■尽管决定实利率的基本因素是个人的储 蓄倾向和投资的预期生产力,政府的货 币政策和财政政策也影响实利率。 ■实际利率的唯一性
◼ 尽管决定实利率的基本因素是个人的储 蓄倾向和投资的预期生产力，政府的货 币政策和财政政策也影响实利率。 ◼ 实际利率的唯一性
3.2名义利率的确定 Fisher equation NIR= RIR+E(CCL) a one reason it is difficult to determine the empirical validity of the Fisher hypothesis that changes in normal rates predict changes in future inflation rates is that the real rate also changes unpredictably over time
3.2 名义利率的确定 ◼ Fisher equation ◼ One reason it is difficult to determine the empirical validity of the Fisher hypothesis that changes in normal rates predict changes in future inflation rates is that the real rate also changes unpredictably over time. NIR = RIR + E(CCL)
Longer rates incorporate forecasts for long term inflation interest rates on bonds of different maturity may diverge. The prices of longer-term bonds are more volatile than those of short-term bonds. This implies that expected returns on longer-term bonds may include a risk premium, so that the expected real rate offered by bonds of varying maturity also may vary
◼ Longer rates incorporate forecasts for longterm inflation. Interest rates on bonds of different maturity may diverge. The prices of longer-term bonds are more volatile than those of short-term bonds. This implies that expected returns on longer-term bonds may include a risk premium, so that the expected real rate offered by bonds of varying maturity also may vary
■假设:尽管有通货膨胀风险,在本章以 下的内容里假设通货膨胀率是可以准确 预测的。 这个假设使得我们可以仅仅关注时间对 债券价值的影响
◼ 假设：尽管有通货膨胀风险，在本章以 下的内容里假设通货膨胀率是可以准确 预测的。 ◼ 这个假设使得我们可以仅仅关注时间对 债券价值的影响