上降充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY 2,Rational Politicians Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1:Politicians would like to win re- election Assumption 2:State of the economy influences chances of re-election SHAN 1日G
2, Rational Politicians Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1: Politicians would like to win reelection Assumption 2: State of the economy influences chances of re-election
上游玄府大唿 Figure 1.Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections 名 1972 1964 8 1956 1984 品 .1988 1996 1960 2004 2000 品 1976 968 Vietnam 1992 导 1980 952 Korea -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Weighted-average per capita real income growth over the term(%)
上浒充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY 2,Rational Politicians The Relationship Between GDP Growth and French Presidential Elections 65 1962 Incumbent 60 1969 party vote share 55 1965 1974 198807 19890 漏 1995 45 40 0 2 8 GDP growth in 12 months preceding election
2, Rational Politicians The Relationship Between GDP Growth and French Presidential Elections GDP growth in 12 months preceding election Incumbent party vote share 1988 1965 1995 1981 1969 1962 1974
上降充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY 2,Rational Politicians Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1:Politicians would like to win re- election Assumption 2:State of the economy influences chances of re-election Assumption 3:Governments have tools to attempt to steer the economy SHAN 1日G
2, Rational Politicians Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1: Politicians would like to win reelection Assumption 2: State of the economy influences chances of re-election Assumption 3: Governments have tools to attempt to steer the economy
上游充通大学 Rational Politicians SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSTT Therefore,governments will try to engineer pre-election booms www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au Election Costello's 2004 Budget
2, Rational Politicians Therefore, governments will try to engineer pre-election booms