上降充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1:Politicians would like to win re- election Assumption 2:State of the economy influences chances of re-election LMLMMA SHANC 1日G
Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1: Politicians would like to win reelection Assumption 2: State of the economy influences chances of re-election
上游玄府大唿 Figure 1.Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections 名 1972 1964 8 1956 1984 品 .1988 1996 1960 2004 2000 品 1976 968 Vietnam 1992 导 1980 952 Korea -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Weighted-average per capita real income growth over the term(%)
上游充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY The Relationship Between GDP Growth and French Presidential Elections 65 1962 60 ncumbent 1969 party vote 55 share 1965 2007 1974 50 1988 1981 1995 45 40 0 2 4 6 8 GDP growth in 12 months preceding election
The Relationship Between GDP Growth and French Presidential Elections GDP growth in 12 months preceding election Incumbent party vote share 1988 1965 1995 1981 1969 1962 1974
上降充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1:Politicians would like to win re- election Assumption 2:State of the economy influences chances of re-election Assumption 3:Governments have tools to attempt to steer the economy SHAN 1日G
Elections and Parties Electoral Cycle Theory Assumption 1: Politicians would like to win reelection Assumption 2: State of the economy influences chances of re-election Assumption 3: Governments have tools to attempt to steer the economy
上浒充通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Therefore,governments will try to engineer pre-election booms www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au The economy and incumbent vote share 1)Better performeyntes Election 2) Costello's 2004 Budget
Therefore, governments will try to engineer pre-election booms The economy and incumbent vote share 1) Better performance = more votes 2) Asymmetry