StructuralReliability&RiskAssessment4 -8 July 2016Wuhan, ChinaLecture 4 & 5: Structural Reliability Analysis-l & 1lProfessorPurnendu K.DasB.E., M.E., PhD, CEng, CMarEng, FRINA, FIStructE, FIMarEST
Structural Reliability & Risk Assessment 4 – 8 July 2016 Wuhan, China Lecture 4 & 5: Structural Reliability Analysis-I & II Professor Purnendu K. Das B.E., M.E., PhD, CEng, CMarEng, FRINA, FIStructE, FIMarEST 1
eOxfordRISKHAZARDThe chance of bad consequences,lossWebsterThe chance of injury, damage or loss
Oxford RISK HAZARD The chance of bad consequences, loss Webster • The chance of injury, damage or loss 2
Two aspects thrust themselves forward:FIRST, Chance &SECOND, the unwantedconsequences involved in riskDecision making involves:PROBABILITIES(Chance)&UTILITIES (Consequences)
Two aspects thrust themselves forward: FIRST, Chance & SECOND, the unwanted consequences involved in risk Decision making involves: PROBABILITIES (Chance) & UTILITIES (Consequences) 3
RISK= PROBABILITYOFFAILUREXCONSEQUENCESOFFAILURE
RISK = PROBABILITY OF FAILURE CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURE 4
If you risk nothing, then you risk everythingTheR-101isassafeasahouseexceptforthemillionthchance.Lord Thomson, Secretary of State for Air, shortly beforeboardingthe airship headed to India for its first flight.Oct 4,1930
If you risk nothing, then you risk everything. The R-101 is as safe as a house except for the millionth chance. Lord Thomson, Secretary of State for Air, shortly before boarding the airship headed to India for its first flight. Oct 4, 1930 5